Spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem water use efficiency and its response to soil moisture drought in a water-limited watershed of northern China.

Drought synchronously affects the water cycle and interferes with the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), serving as a vital metric for assessing the interplay between water and carbon cycles, has found extensively use in exploring how ecosystems responses to drought. However, the effects of soil moisture drought on WUE are still poorly recognized. Taking Ziya River Basin as an example, the spatial-temporal variations of WUE from 2001 to 2020 were estimated by the Penman-Monteith-Leuning Version 2 (PML-V2) data. Based on the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from Soil Moisture of China by in situ data, version 1.0 (SMCI1.0) data, the sensitivity and thresholds of different vegetation WUE to drought magnitudes were investigated, and the influences of both lagged and cumulative effects of drought on WUE were further analyzed. Results showed that the annual mean WUE was 2.160 ± 0.975 g C kg-1 H2O-1 in the Ziya River Basin, with a significant increasing trend of 0.037 g C kg-1 H2O-1 yr-1 (p < 0.05). For all the vegetation types, the WUE reached the maximum value at a certain drought threshold (SSI = -1.5 ± 0.1). The dominant factor controlling WUE sensitivity to drought changed from evapotranspiration (ET) to gross primary production (GPP) when severe drought transformed into extreme drought. Significant lagged and cumulative effects were found in the response of WUE to drought in nearly 58.64 % (72.94 %) of the study area, with an average time scale of 6.65 and 2.11 months (p < 0.05) respectively. Drought resistance in descending order was: forest > shrub > grassland > cropland. Our findings enrich the understanding of the coupled carbon and water cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and their response to soil moisture drought in the context of global climate change.

From cross-lagged effects to feedback effects: Further insights into the estimation and interpretation of bidirectional relations.

Bidirectional relations have long been of interest in psychology and other social behavioral sciences. In recent years, the widespread use of intensive longitudinal data has provided new opportunities to examine dynamic bidirectional relations between variables. However, most previous studies have focused on the effect of one variable on the other (i.e., cross-lagged effects) rather than the overall effect representing the dynamic interplay between two variables (i.e., feedback effects), which we believe may be due to a lack of relevant methodological guidance. To quantify bidirectional relations as a whole, this study attempted to provide guidance for the estimation and interpretation of feedback effects based on dynamic structural equation models. First, we illustrated the estimation procedure for the average and person-specific feedback effects. Then, to facilitate the interpretation of feedback effects, we established an empirical benchmark by quantitatively synthesizing the results of relevant empirical studies. Finally, we used a set of empirical data to demonstrate how feedback effects can help (a) test theories based on bidirectional relations and (b) reveal correlates of individual differences in bidirectional relations. We also discussed the broad application prospects of feedback effects from a dynamic systems perspective. This study provides guidance for applied researchers interested in further examining feedback effects in bidirectional relations, and the shift from focusing on cross-lagged effects only to a comprehensive consideration of feedback effects may provide new insights into the study of bidirectional relations.

Association Between Air Pollution and Coronary Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Lanzhou City, 2013-2020: a Time Series Analysis.

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the most serious public health problems. However, few studies have focused on the effects of exposure to particulate matter and gaseous air pollutants on CHD. This study aimed to explore the relationship between air pollutants and the number of hospitalized patients with CHD in Lanzhou, and we collected daily data on the number of hospitalized patients with CHD, daily air pollutants, and meteorological factors from 2013 to 2020. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was applied to evaluate the relationship between air pollutants and the number of hospitalized patients with CHD. The results indicated that the hysteresis effect of all pollutants except O38h reached its maximum at lag3, and the relative risk of coronary heart disease admission was 1.0014 (95%CI: 1.0004, 1.0023), 1.0003 (95%CI: 1.0000, 1.0006), 1.0020 (95%CI: 1.0004, 1.0035), and 1.0053 (95%CI: 1.0026, 1.0080) when PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 concentrations were increased by 10 µg/m3, respectively. Each 1 mg/m3 increase in CO concentration was associated with a relative risk of coronary heart disease; hospitalization risk was 1.1076 (95%CI: 1.0530, 1.1650). We observed a relative risk of 0.9991 (95%CI: 0.9986, 0.9999) for each 10 µg/m3 increase in O38h for coronary heart disease admission at lag1. Women and elderly were more susceptible to the impact of air pollution, and the impact was greater during cold seasons. Our results indicate that air pollution increased the risk of hospitalization for CHD in a short term. The research findings can provide strategic insights into the impact of current and future air pollution on CHD.

Satellite monitoring reveals short-term cumulative and time-lag effect of drought and heat on autumn photosynthetic phenology in subtropical vegetation.

Comparing with the effect of the average climate change on vegetation phenology, the impacts of extreme climate events remain unclear, especially considering their characteristic cumulative and time-lag effects. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) satellite records, we investigated the cumulative and time-lag effects of drought and heat events on photosynthesis, particularly for the end date of autumn photosynthesis (EOP), in subtropical vegetation in China. Our results showed a negative effect of drought on the delay of EOP, with the cumulative effect on 30.12% (maximum continuous dry days, CDD), 34.82% (dry days, DRD), and 26.14% (dry period, DSDI) of the study area and the general time-lag effect on 50.73% (maximum continuous dry days), 56.61% (dry days), and 47.55% (dry period) of the study area. The cumulative and lagged time were 1-3 months and 2-3 months, respectively. In contrast, the cumulative effect of heat on EOP was observed in 16.27% (warm nights, TN90P), 23.66% (moderate heat days, TX50P), and 19.19% (heavy heat days, TX90P) of the study area, with cumulative time of 1-3 months. The lagged time was 3-4 months, detected in 31.02% (warm nights), 45.86% (moderate heat days), and 36.52% (heavy heat days) of the study area. At the vegetation community level, drought and heat had relatively rapid impacts on EOP in the deciduous broadleaved forest, whereas evergreen forests and bushes responded to heat slowly and took a longer time. Our results revealed that drought and heat have short-term cumulative and time-lag effects on the EOP of subtropical vegetation in China, with varying effects among different vegetation types. These findings provide new insights into the effect of drought and heat on subtropical vegetation and confirm the need to consider these effects in the development of prediction models of autumn phenology for subtropical vegetation.

Estimating the lagged effect of price discounting: a time-series study on sugar sweetened beverage purchasing in a supermarket.

BACKGROUND: Price discount is an unregulated obesogenic environmental risk factor for the purchasing of unhealthy food, including Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSB). Sales of price discounted food items are known to increase during the period of discounting. However, the presence and extent of the lagged effect of discounting, a sustained level of sales after discounting ends, is previously unaccounted for. We investigated the presence of the lagged effect of discounting on the sales of five SSB categories, which are soda, fruit juice, sport and energy drink, sugar-sweetened coffee and tea, and sugar-sweetened drinkable yogurt. METHODS: We fitted distributed lag models to weekly volume-standardized sales and percent discounting generated by a supermarket in Montreal, Canada between January 2008 and December 2013, inclusive (n = 311 weeks). RESULTS: While the sales of SSB increased during the period of discounting, there was no evidence of a prominent lagged effect of discounting in four of the five SSB; the exception was sports and energy drinks, where a posterior mean of 28,459 servings (95% credible interval: 2661 to 67,253) of excess sales can be attributed to the lagged effect in the target store during the 6 years study period. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that studies that do not account for the lagged effect of promotions may not fully capture the effect of price discounting for some food categories.

Associations between Student-Teacher Bonds and Oppositional Behavior Against Teachers in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Analysis from Ages 11 to 15.

Prior research has found evidence for a positive effect of student-teacher bonds on children's behavior. However, little research has investigated these relations following a transactional model of child development. This study investigated the bidirectional associations between student-teacher relationships and oppositional behaviors towards teachers using the 'Zurich Project on the Social Development from Childhood to Adulthood' (n = 1527; median ages 11, 13 and 15; 49% female). Results of a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model suggested that, among boys, positive student-teacher bonds at age 13 were associated with fewer teacher-reported oppositional behaviors two years later. The results indicated that negative interactions with teachers may be part of vicious cycles of poor relationships and increased levels of oppositional behavior, particularly for boys in late adolescence.

Concurrent and lagged effects of spring greening on seasonal carbon gain and water loss across the Northern Hemisphere.

Spring greening has been widely observed across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) using a remotely sensed vegetation index (e.g., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, there is still a debate on the ecological effects of spring greening on seasonal carbon and water budgets. This study jointly investigated the concurrent and lagged effects of spring greening on carbon gain (gross primary productivity, GPP) and water loss (evapotranspiration, ET) in the summer-active ecosystems at mid and high latitudes of NH using remote sensing and multimodel ensemble data during 1982-2013. The results showed that the collective promotion of spring greening to concurrent GPP and ET is widespread despite variations in magnitude and significance. Both beneficial and adverse lagged effects of spring greening on summer GPP commonly appear with an obvious spatial heterogeneity and difference among climate-plant types. However, the expected significant suppression of spring greening to summer GPP was rarely observed even in the areas where spring ET was significantly promoted by spring greening. Nevertheless, when drought was taken into account, the response patterns of spring water use to spring greening varied to some extent, and the adverse lagged effect of spring greening to summer GPP appeared or strengthened in some regions, especially during the years with dry summer. Given the predicted warming of the climate and more frequent climatic extremes, the adverse effect of spring greening should be given more attention.

The lagged effect of state gun laws on the reduction of state-level firearm homicide mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2017.

OBJECTIVES: Gun violence is a pressing concern in the United States, where many laws targeting gun violence vary across states and localities. Studies have investigated the association between gun laws and gun violence, but not many focus on the role of time, which is critical for implementation. This study aims to determine the lagged association of gun laws with firearm homicide mortality to better understand the impacts of state gun laws over time. STUDY DESIGN: The design of this study is a longitudinal study. METHODS: This study applied the distributed lag non-linear model to assess the lagged association between firearm homicide mortality and the number of gun law provisions at the state level from 1999 to 2017. State gun law provisions were analyzed in aggregate and also across five groups of regulations. All estimates were transformed into relative risks (RRs). RESULTS: Regarding all state gun laws, regardless of how many gun law provisions were on the books in any year, a significantly reduced RR of firearm homicide mortality was not observed until 7 years later. Among the five regulation groups, a significant RR less than 1 was more likely to happen in longer lags ≥5. The lowest significant RR = 0.24 (95% confidence interval = 0.15, 0.39) was observed in the gun types, components, and trafficking group at lag 8. All regulation groups had an overall impact to reduce significantly the RR of firearm homicide mortality with more gun law provisions, except for the dealer regulation group. CONCLUSIONS: State gun law provisions appear to impact firearm homicide mortality differently over time. This emphasizes the centrality of enforcement. Firearm policy researchers need to consider how specific gun laws are implemented over time to help inform law-based interventions.

Satellite detection of cumulative and lagged effects of drought on autumn leaf senescence over the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate change has substantial influences on autumn leaf senescence, that is, the end of the growing season (EOS). Relative to the impacts of temperature and precipitation on EOS, the influence of drought is not well understood, especially considering that there are apparent cumulative and lagged effects of drought on plant growth. Here, we investigated the cumulative and lagged effects of drought (in terms of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) on EOS derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) data over the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (>30°N) during 1982-2015. The cumulative effect was determined by the number of antecedent months at which SPEI showed the maximum correlation with EOS (i.e., Rmax-cml ) while the lag effect was determined by a month during which the maximum correlation between 1-month SPEI and EOS occurred (i.e., Rmax-lag ). We found cumulative effect of drought on EOS for 27.2% and lagged effect for 46.2% of the vegetated land area. For the dominant time scales where the Rmax-cml and Rmax-lag occurred, we observed 1-4 accumulated months for the cumulative effect and 2-6 lagged months for the lagged effect. At the biome level, drought had stronger impacts on EOS in grasslands, savannas, and shrubs than in forests, which may be related to the different root functional traits among vegetation types. Considering hydrological conditions, the mean values of both Rmax-cml and Rmax-lag decreased along the gradients of annual SPEI and its slope, suggesting stronger cumulative and lagged effects in drier regions as well as in areas with decreasing water availability. Furthermore, the average accumulated and lagged months tended to decline along the annual SPEI gradient but increase with increasing annual SPEI. Our results revealed that drought has strong cumulative and lagged effects on autumn phenology, and considering these effects could provide valuable information on the vegetation response to a changing climate.

Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is a pandemic and a public health emergency. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily the Aedes genus. In light of no treatment currently, it is crucial to develop effective vector control programs to prevent the spread of ZIKV infection earlier when observing possible risk factors, such as weather conditions enhancing mosquito breeding and surviving. METHODS: This study collected daily meteorological measurements and weekly ZIKV infectious cases among 32 departments of Colombia from January 2015-December 2016. This study applied the distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the association between the number of ZIKA virus infection and meteorological measurements, controlling for spatial and temporal variations. We examined at most three meteorological factors with 20 lags in weeks in the model. RESULTS: Average humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature were more predictable of ZIKV infection outbreaks than other meteorological factors. Our models can detect significantly lagged effects of average humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature on outbreaks up to 15, 14, and 20 weeks, respectively. The spatial analysis identified 12 departments with a significant threat of ZIKV, and eight of those high-risk departments were located between the Equator and 6°N. The outbreak prediction also performed well in identified high-risk departments. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that meteorological factors could be used for predicting ZIKV epidemics. Building an early warning surveillance system is important for preventing ZIKV infection, particularly in endemic areas.

Why do People Overthink? A Longitudinal Investigation of a Meta-Cognitive Model and Uncontrollability of Rumination.

BACKGROUND: The meta-cognitive model of rumination is a theoretical model regarding the relationship between rumination and depression. Although meta-cognitive therapy for rumination was established based on this model, insufficient longitudinal studies addressing this model have been conducted. Moreover, the uncontrollability of rumination, suggested to be driven by negative meta-beliefs about rumination, has not been examined using this meta-cognitive model. AIMS: We longitudinally examined the meta-cognitive model and its relationship with uncontrollability of rumination and depressive symptoms. METHOD: Undergraduate students (n = 117) were asked to complete two measurements (with a 6-month gap between them) of positive and negative meta-beliefs about rumination, causal analysis, understanding, uncontrollability of rumination and depression. RESULTS: Cross-lagged effect modelling revealed that positive meta-beliefs predicted high causal analytic rumination. However, the results did not support the causal analytic and understanding aspects of how rumination predicted negative meta-beliefs. Negative meta-beliefs predicted high depressive symptoms, and depressive symptoms predicted high negative meta-beliefs. Negative meta-beliefs predicted high uncontrollability of rumination, whereas uncontrollability of rumination did not predict depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The results partially supported the meta-cognitive model. The prediction of depressive symptoms on negative meta-beliefs suggests that depression-related cognition might be involved in increasing negative meta-beliefs, rather than the repetitive causal analytic and understanding aspects of rumination. In line with meta-cognitive therapy, negative meta-beliefs could be a target for treating depression.

Within-subject covariation between depression- and anxiety-related affect.

Studies find a strong positive relationship between the affective components of anxiety and depression. However, most research thus far has examined the between-person correlations among these constructs, while ignoring how changes in these two types of affect covary over time within a person. Within-person correlations could differ meaningfully from how anxiety- and depression-related affect relate across individuals. Further, individuals may differ in terms of how highly these constructs covary over time. The current study aimed to (1) compare between- and within-person correlations between anxious and depressive affect, (2) examine lagged effects between anxious and depressive affect over time, (3) test whether individuals differ in their within-person correlations between these two types of affect, and (4) examine whether the mean level of affective intensity moderated these individual differences. These questions were explored using college undergraduates (N = 50) who rated their depression- and anxiety- related affect six times a day for two weeks. A higher average correlation was observed between anxious and depressive affect in between-person compared to within-person analyses. Significant bidirectional lagged effects were observed between these constructs. Individuals with higher average levels of anxious affect experienced stronger within-person correlations between anxious and depressive affect.

The effects of exposure to NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 on health service attendances with respiratory illnesses: A time-series analysis.

The associations of exposure to air-pollutants and respiratory illness remains inconsistent and studies have not adequately addressed the non-linearity and delayed effects of exposure. This is a retrospective cohort study using linked routine health and pollution data collected between January 2018 and December 2021. Participants were patients who visited General Practice (GP) or accident and emergency (A&E) services for respiratory illness. Time-series analysis, distributed lagged models, was used to address the potential non-linearity and delayed effects of exposure. There were 114,930 GP and 9878 A&E respiratory visits. For every 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 and PM2.5 above the WHO recommended 24-hr thresholds, the immediate relative risk of GP respiratory visits was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.10), respectively. The respective relative risk of A&E visit was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.14) and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.14). Exposure to 10-unit increases in NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 above the WHO recommended 24-hr thresholds, was associated with lagged relative risks of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42 to 1.56), 5.26 (95% CI: 4.18 to 6.61) and 2.32 (95% CI: 1.66 to 3.26), respectively, for GP respiratory attendances. The lagged relative risk of A&E respiratory visits for same units of exposure in NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 at the peak lag days were 1.98 (95% CI: 1.82 to 2.15), 4.52 (95% CI: 3.37 to 6.07) and 3.55 (95% CI: 1.85 to 6.84). A third of GP and half of A&E respiratory visits were attributable to exposure to NO2 beyond the WHO threshold. The combined cost of these visits over the study period was 1.95 million (95% CI: 1.82 to 2.09). High pollution events are related to increased health service use for respiratory illness, with impacts persisting up to 100 days post exposure. The burden of respiratory illness related to air-pollution may be considerably higher than previously reported.

Understanding the effect of retirement on health behaviors in China: Causality, heterogeneity and time-varying effect.

Retirement is an important turning point during the course of life, but few studies have examined the effects of retirement on a broad range of health behaviors in China. We use the longitudinal data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 2004 to 2015 to conduct empirical analysis. Fuzzy discontinuity regression was used to assess the association between retirement and health behaviors in the entire sample and subgroups based on gender and education. A time-varying effect model was used to measure the anticipatory effect, immediate effect and lag effect of retirement. We observed that the transition to retirement was associated with healthier lifestyle habits, such as reduced smoking and alcohol consumption and increased exercise motivation. However, the transition was associated with worse sedentary behavior. No significant statistical association was found between retirement and sleep duration. Men and those with higher education levels are more likely to experience the impact of retirement. The anticipatory effect suggests that as the statutory pension age is predictable, workers adjust their behaviors 4 and 5 years before retirement. The lagged effect indicates that it takes time to develop new habits; thus, retirees change their behaviors 2-3 years after retirement. The paper discusses possible reasons for our findings and proposes several policy implications from the perspectives of the government and society to facilitate the realization of healthy aging.

Assessing the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Generalized Estimating Equations.

Background: Meteorological factors have been proven to affect pathogens; both the transmission routes and other intermediate. Many studies have worked on assessing how those meteorological factors would influence the transmissibility of COVID-19. In this study, we used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by using three outcome variables, which are transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases. Methods: In this study, the data on the daily number of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in 30 provinces and cities nationwide were obtained from the provincial and municipal health committees, while the data from 682 conventional weather stations in the selected provinces and cities were obtained from the website of the China Meteorological Administration. We built a Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model to fit the data, then we calculated the transmissibility of COVID-19 using an indicator of the effective reproduction number (Reff ). To quantify the different impacts of meteorological factors on several outcome variables including transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases of COVID-19, we collected panel data and used generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether there is a lag effect and the different times of meteorological factors on the three outcome variables. Results: Precipitation and wind speed had a negative effect on transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases, while humidity had a positive effect on them. The higher the temperature, the lower the transmissibility. The temperature had a lag effect on the incidence rate, while the remaining five meteorological factors had immediate and lag effects on the incidence rate and the number of reported cases. Conclusion: Meteorological factors had similar effects on incidence rate and number of reported cases, but different effects on transmissibility. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine hours, and wind speed had immediate and lag effects on transmissibility, but with different lag times. An increase in temperature may first cause a decrease in virus transmissibility and then lead to a decrease in incidence rate. Also, the mechanism of the role of meteorological factors in the process of transmissibility to incidence rate needs to be further explored.

The Analysis of a Causal Relationship between Career Maturity and Academic Achievement on Korean Adolescents Using Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Modeling.

Academic achievement and career maturity are closely related, but an understanding of the causal direction is lacking. The purpose of this study was to analyze the causal relationship between career maturity and academic achievement using autoregressive cross-lagged modeling. This study analyzed the data of 888 adolescents (mean age = 15.90) from the Youth Panel Survey. Autoregressive modeling indicates that academic achievement and career maturity remained stable over time. Higher academic achievement at a previous time point was associated with higher academic achievement at the next time point and similarly for career maturity. Moreover, as a result of cross-lagged effects, academic achievement at one time had a positive effect on career maturity at the next time point, while career maturity at one time had a positive impact on academic achievement at the next time point. In other words, there was a bidirectional effect between academic achievement and career maturity. This study implies that researchers and educators should consider career maturity as well as academic achievement for career guidance.

The epigenetic etiology of cardiovascular disease in a longitudinal Swedish twin study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on DNA methylation have the potential to discover mechanisms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the role of DNA methylation in CVD etiology remains unclear. RESULTS: We performed an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) on CVD in a longitudinal sample of Swedish twins (535 individuals). We selected CpGs reaching the Bonferroni-corrected significance level (2 [Formula: see text] 10-7) or the top-ranked 20 CpGs with the lowest P values if they did not reach this significance level in EWAS analysis associated with non-stroke CVD, overall stroke, and ischemic stroke, respectively. We further applied a bivariate autoregressive latent trajectory model with structured residuals (ALT-SR) to evaluate the cross-lagged effect between DNA methylation of these CpGs and cardiometabolic traits (blood lipids, blood pressure, and body mass index). Furthermore, mediation analysis was performed to evaluate whether the cross-lagged effects had causal impacts on CVD. In the EWAS models, none of the CpGs we selected reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance level. The ALT-SR model showed that DNA methylation levels were more likely to predict the subsequent level of cardiometabolic traits rather than the other way around (numbers of significant cross-lagged paths of methylation → trait/trait → methylation were 84/4, 45/6, 66/1 for the identified three CpG sets, respectively). Finally, we demonstrated significant indirect effects from DNA methylation on CVD mediated by cardiometabolic traits. CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence for a directional association from DNA methylation on cardiometabolic traits and CVD, rather than the opposite, highlighting the role of epigenetics in CVD development.

Burnout as a State: Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Relationship Between Exhaustion and Disengagement in a 10-Day Study.

BACKGROUND: Burnout has been traditionally seen as a chronic and stable state in response to prolonged stress. However, measures of momentary burnout are not well established, even though the within-person approach suggests that the symptoms of burnout may vary from day to day for the same employee. The aim of this study is to examine the daily inter- and intra-personal variability of the symptoms of burnout and the cross-lagged relationship between two components of burnout, exhaustion and disengagement. METHODS: An online diary study over 10 consecutive workdays was conducted among 235 civil servants (75% women, average tenure of 15 years). Daily burnout was measured with the eight-item Oldenburg Burnout Inventory. RESULTS: The intra-class correlation coefficients indicate that, although significant between-person variability exists, most of the burnout variance is within persons. Using the random intercept cross-lagged panel (RI-CLP) model to control for these between-person differences, mainly insignificant "pure" within-person cross-lagged relationships between exhaustion and disengagement were revealed. Moreover, day-to-day autoregressive effects were weaker than same-day residual correlations. CONCLUSION: This is one of the first studies to use daily diaries and the RI-CLP model to study burnout, including the separation of the more stable and more dynamic parts of each component. When stable parts were controlled for, the same-day relationships between exhaustion and disengagement were more pronounced than day-to-day effects. This might suggest stronger situational influences than carryover mechanism. Thus, conceptualizing burnout in terms of daily symptoms may shed promising insights into how it develops and add implications for pro-healthy changes in the workplace.

The onset in spring and the end in autumn of the thermal and vegetative growing season affect calving time and reproductive success in reindeer.

A developing trophic mismatch between the peak of energy demands by reproducing animals and the peak of forage availability has caused many species' reproductive success to decrease. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) is an appealing concept that can be used to assess such fitness consequences. However, concerns have been raised on applying the MMH on capital breeders such as reindeer because the reliance on maternal capita rather than dietary income may mitigate negative effects of changing phenologies. Using a long-term dataset of reindeer calving dates recorded since 1970 in a semidomesticated reindeer population in Finnish Lapland and proxies of plant phenology; we tested the main hypothesis that the time lag between calving date and the plant phenology in autumn when females store nutrient reserves to finance reproduction would lead to consequences on reproductive success, as the time lag with spring conditions would. As predicted, the reproductive success of females of the Kutuharju reindeer population was affected by both the onset of spring green-up and vegetative senescence in autumn as calves were born heavier and with a higher first-summer survival when the onset of the vegetation growth was earlier and the end of the thermal growing season the previous year was earlier as well. Our results demonstrated that longer plant growing seasons might be detrimental to reindeer's reproductive success if a later end is accompanied by a reduced abundance of mushrooms.

The lagged effect of air pollution on human eosinophils: a distributed lag non-linear model.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the lag between exposure to air pollutants and changes in human eosinophil counts. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a retrospective study employing 246 425 physical examination records dated December 2013 - December 2016 from Chengdu, China. The authors determined the prevalence of individuals with eosinophil counts above the normal reference range each day. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to evaluate the lagged effect of each air pollutant on eosinophil counts. The lagged effects of each air pollutant were counted and presented with smoothing splines. RESULTS: The effects of air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM2.5, aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm; PM10, aerodynamic diameters <10 µm), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were evaluated. In women, the effects of PM2.5 (RR = 1.154, 95% CI: 1.061-1.255) and PM10 (RR = 1.309, 95% CI: 1.130-1.517) reached the maximum values on lag day 0. In men, there was no significant effect of PM2.5, but significant effects of PM10 were found for lag days 20-28. The effects of NO2 and O3 on eosinophils were not statistically significant for either gender. CONCLUSIONS: The air pollutants of PM10 have a significant effect on human eosinophils for both women and men, but with different temporal patterns, with women showing a lag of 0-5 days and men showing a lag of 20-28 days. In addition, PM2.5 was significant for women with a lag of 0-3 days but it was not significant for men. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2020;33(3):299-310.