HIV estimation using population-based surveys with non-response: A partial identification approach.

HIV estimation using data from the demographic and health surveys (DHS) is limited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instrument. Using Manski's partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and compare our method against its competitors. We illustrate the proposed method using DHS data from Zambia, Malawi and Kenya. Our simulations show that imputation leads to seriously biased results even under mild violations of non-random missingness. Using worst case identification bounds that do not make assumptions about the non-response mechanism is robust but not informative. By taking the union of instrumental variable bounds balances informativeness of the bounds and robustness to inclusion of some invalid instruments. Non-response and refusals are ubiquitous in population based HIV data such as those collected under the DHS. Partial identification bounds provide a robust solution to HIV prevalence estimation without strong assumptions. Union bounds are significantly more informative than the worst case bounds without sacrificing credibility.

Older adults' compliance with mobile ecological momentary assessments in behavioral nutrition and physical activity research: pooled results of four intensive longitudinal studies and recommendations for future research.

BACKGROUND: Mobile Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) is increasingly used to gather intensive, longitudinal data on behavioral nutrition, physical activity and sedentary behavior and their underlying determinants. However, a relevant concern is the risk of non-random non-compliance with mobile EMA protocols, especially in older adults. This study aimed to examine older adults' compliance with mobile EMA in health behavior studies according to participant characteristics, and prompt timing, and to provide recommendations for future EMA research. METHODS: Data of four intensive longitudinal observational studies employing mobile EMA to understand health behavior, involving 271 community-dwelling older adults (M = 71.8 years, SD = 6.8; 52% female) in Flanders, were pooled. EMA questionnaires were prompted by a smartphone application during specific time slots or events. Data on compliance (i.e. information whether a participant answered at least one item following the prompt), time slot (morning, afternoon or evening) and day (week or weekend day) of each prompt were extracted from the EMA applications. Participant characteristics, including demographics, body mass index, and smartphone ownership, were collected via self-report. Descriptive statistics of compliance were computed, and logistic mixed models were run to examine inter- and intrapersonal variability in compliance. RESULTS: EMA compliance averaged 77.5%, varying from 70.0 to 86.1% across studies. Compliance differed among subgroups and throughout the day. Age was associated with lower compliance (OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.93-0.99), while marital/cohabiting status and smartphone ownership were associated with higher compliance (OR = 1.83, 95%CI = 1.21-2.77, and OR = 4.43, 95%CI = 2.22-8.83, respectively). Compliance was lower in the evening than in the morning (OR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.69-0.97), indicating non-random patterns that could impact study validity. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study shed light on the complexities surrounding compliance with mobile EMA protocols among older adults in health behavior studies. Our analysis revealed that non-compliance within our pooled dataset was not completely random. This non-randomness could introduce bias into study findings, potentially compromising the validity of research findings. To address these challenges, we recommend adopting tailored approaches that take into account individual characteristics and temporal dynamics. Additionally, the utilization of Directed Acyclic Graphs, and advanced statistical techniques can help mitigate the impact of non-compliance on study validity.

Calibration and XGBoost reweighting to reduce coverage and non-response biases in overlapping panel surveys: application to the Healthcare and Social Survey.

BACKGROUND: Surveys have been used worldwide to provide information on the COVID-19 pandemic impact so as to prepare and deliver an effective Public Health response. Overlapping panel surveys allow longitudinal estimates and more accurate cross-sectional estimates to be obtained thanks to the larger sample size. However, the problem of non-response is particularly aggravated in the case of panel surveys due to population fatigue with repeated surveys. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new reweighting method for overlapping panel surveys affected by non-response. METHODS: We chose the Healthcare and Social Survey which has an overlapping panel survey design with measurements throughout 2020 and 2021, and random samplings stratified by province and degree of urbanization. Each measurement comprises two samples: a longitudinal sample taken from previous measurements and a new sample taken at each measurement. RESULTS: Our reweighting methodological approach is the result of a two-step process: the original sampling design weights are corrected by modelling non-response with respect to the longitudinal sample obtained in a previous measurement using machine learning techniques, followed by calibration using the auxiliary information available at the population level. It is applied to the estimation of totals, proportions, ratios, and differences between measurements, and to gender gaps in the variable of self-perceived general health. CONCLUSION: The proposed method produces suitable estimators for both cross-sectional and longitudinal samples. For addressing future health crises such as COVID-19, it is therefore necessary to reduce potential coverage and non-response biases in surveys by means of utilizing reweighting techniques as proposed in this study.

Persistent Depression and Suicidal Ideation in People Living with HIV in Tanzania: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Suicidal ideation and depression are common in people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa, but longitudinal data on their persistence in the modern antiretroviral therapy era are lacking. We examined the prevalence of persistent suicidal ideation and depression symptoms using the PHQ-9 in a well-characterized cohort of PLWH and HIV-uninfected community controls. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between HIV and persistent depression and suicidal ideation. Persistent suicidal ideation was more common in PLWH but there was no difference in persistent depression by HIV status. Approximately one out of five participants with depression at baseline had persistent depression after 12-24 months and only about one out of four participants reporting suicidal ideation at baseline had persistent suicidal ideation after 12-24 months. HIV was associated with suicidal ideation at baseline. Persistent suicidal ideation was significantly associated with HIV immune non-response (p = 0.022). These findings highlight the need for integration of mental health services into HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on suicide prevention.

Investigating sources of non-response bias in a population-based seroprevalence study of vaccine-preventable diseases in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: PIENTER 3 (P3), conducted in 2016/17, is the most recent of three nationwide serological surveys in the Netherlands. The surveys aim to monitor the effects of the National Immunisation Programme (NIP) by assessing population seroprevalence of included vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs). The response rate to the main sample was 15.7% (n = 4,983), following a decreasing trend in response compared to the previous two PIENTER studies (P1, 55.0%; 1995/1996 [n = 8,356] and P2, 33.0%; 2006/2007 [n = 5,834]). Non-responders to the main P3 survey were followed-up to complete a "non-response" questionnaire, an abridged 9-question version of the main survey covering demographics, health, and vaccination status. We assess P3 representativeness and potential sources of non-response bias, and trends in decreasing participation rates across all PIENTER studies. METHODS: P3 invitees were classified into survey response types: Full Participants (FP), Questionnaire Only (QO), Non-Response Questionnaire (NRQ) and Absolute Non-Responders (ANR). FP demographic and health indicator data were compared with Dutch national statistics, and then the response types were compared to each other. Random forest algorithms were used to predict response type. Finally, FPs from all three PIENTERs were compared to investigate the profile of survey participants through time. RESULTS: P3 FPs were in general healthier, younger and higher educated than the Dutch population. Random forest was not able to differentiate between FPs and ANRs, but when predicting FPs from NRQs we found evidence of healthy-responder bias. Participants of the three PIENTERs were found to be similar and are therefore comparable through time, but in line with national trends we found P3 participants were less inclined to vaccinate than previous cohorts. DISCUSSION: The PIENTER biobank is a powerful tool to monitor population-level protection against VPDs across 30 years in The Netherlands. However, future PIENTER studies should continue to focus on improving recruitment from under-represented groups, potentially by considering alternative and mixed survey modes to improve both overall and subgroup-specific response. Whilst non-responder bias is unlikely to affect seroprevalence estimates of high-coverage vaccines, the primary aim of the PIENTER biobank, other studies with varied vaccination/disease exposures should consider the influence of bias carefully.

Testing the role of associative learning in evidence-based treatments for anorexia nervosa.

Treatments for anorexia nervosa (AN) remain ineffective for many patients. Processes that can account for differential treatment outcomes remain mostly unknown. We propose that the field test the role of associative learning in current psychological treatments. We hold that this line of research could yield actionable information for understanding non-response and improving long-term outcomes. To make this argument, we define associative learning and outline its proposed role in understanding psychiatric disorders and their treatment. We then briefly review data exploring associative learning in AN. We argue that associative learning processes are implicitly implicated in existing treatments; by this rationale, baseline differences in learning may interfere with treatment response. Finally, we outline future research to test our hypotheses. Altogether, future research aimed at better understanding how associative learning may contribute to AN symptom persistence has the potential to inform novel directions in intervention research. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: There is a pressing need to improve outcomes in treatments for anorexia nervosa (AN). We propose that individual differences in associative learning-the ability to form and update associations between cues, contexts, behaviors, and outcomes-may account for differential response to existing treatments. Undertaking this research could provide an understanding of how current treatments work and inform new approaches for those who may be at risk of poor outcomes.

Is there a role for platelet rich plasma injection in vulvar lichen sclerosus? A self-controlled pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Owing to the evidence that as many as 30-40% of patients with vulvar lichen sclerosus (VLS) fail to report a remission of symptoms with first-line corticosteroid treatment (TCS), especially as what regards dyspareunia, we aimed to analyze patients' satisfaction following vulvar injection of autologous platelet-rich plasma (PRP). This is intended as an adjunctive treatment, to be used following TCS, and appears to promote tissue repair. It may also possibly have immunomodulatory proprieties. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with VLS were considered eligible for this pilot study if, despite having been treated with a 3-month TCS regimen, they reported a persistence of symptoms. PRP was produced in a referral center using a manual method and a standardized protocol. Each patient received three treatments 4 to 6 weeks apart. RESULTS: A total of 50 patients with a median age of 53 years [IQR 38-59 years] were included in the study. 6 months after the last injection of PRP all patients were either satisfied or very satisfied with the treatment (100%; 95% CI 93-100%). Median NRS scores for itching, burning, dyspareunia and dysuria were significantly reduced (p < 0.05) and FSFI, HADS and SF-12 questionnaires revealed a significant improvement in sexual function, psychological wellbeing and quality of life (p < 0.05). The number of patients reporting the need for maintenance TCS treatment was reduced by 42% (p < 0.001) and an improvement in vulvar elasticity and color was reported in all patients. CONCLUSION: Following standard medical therapy, PRP may be effective not only in improving symptoms, but also in restoring function.

Head and neck cancer patients with geriatric deficits are more often non-responders and lost from follow-up in quality of life studies.

OBJECTIVES: To identify associations between frailty and non-response to follow-up questionnaires, in a longitudinal head and neck cancer (HNC) study with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients referred with HNC were included in OncoLifeS, a prospective data-biobank, underwent Geriatric Assessment (GA) and frailty screening ahead of treatment, and were followed up at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after treatment using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 and Head and Neck 35. Statistical analysis for factors associated with non-response was done using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. RESULTS: 289 patients were eligible for analysis. Mean age was 68.4 years and 68.5% were male. Restrictions in Activities of Daily Living [OR 4.46 (2.04-9.78)] and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living [OR 4.33 (2.27-8.24)], impaired mobility on Timed Up and Go test [OR 3.95 (1.85-8.45)], cognitive decline [OR 4.85 (2.28-10.35)] and assisted living (OR 5.54 (2.63-11.67)] were significantly associated with non-response. Frailty screening, with Geriatric 8 and Groningen Frailty Indicator, was also associated with non-response [OR, respectively, 2.64 (1.51-4.59) and 2.52 (1.44-4.44)]. All findings remained significant when adjusted for other factors that were significantly associated with non-response, such as higher age, longer study duration and subsequent death. CONCLUSION: Frail HNC patients respond significantly worse to follow-up PROMs. The drop-out and underrepresentation of frail patients in studies may lead to attrition bias, and as a result underestimating the effect sizes of associations. This is of importance when handling and interpreting such data.

Cellular and Molecular Determinants of Biologic Drugs Resistance and Therapeutic Failure in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

The advent of biologic drugs has revolutionized the treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease, increasing rates of response and mucosal healing in comparison to conventional therapies by allowing the treatment of corticosteroid-refractory cases and reducing corticosteroid-related side effects. However, biologic therapies (anti-TNFα inhibitors, anti-α4ß7 integrin and anti-IL12/23) are still burdened by rates of response that hover around 40% (in biologic-naïve patients) or lower (for biologic-experienced patients). Moreover, knowledge of the mechanisms underlying drug resistance or loss of response is still scarce. Several cellular and molecular determinants are implied in therapeutic failure; genetic predispositions, in the form of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the sequence of cytokines or Human Leukocyte Antigen, or an altered expression of cytokines and other molecules involved in the inflammation cascade, play the most important role. Accessory mechanisms include gut microbiota dysregulation. In this narrative review of the current and most recent literature, we shed light on the mentioned determinants of therapeutic failure in order to pave the way for a more personalized approach that could help avoid unnecessary treatments and toxicities.

Primary non-response to antiviral therapy affects the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Although antiviral treatments have been shown to affect the recurrence and long-term survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have high viral loads, the effect of different responses to antiviral therapy on the clinical outcomes remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the effect of primary non-response (no-PR) to antiviral therapy on the survival or prognosis of patients with HCC with a high load of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA. METHODS: A total of 493 HBV-HCC patients hospitalized at Beijing Ditan Hospital of Capital Medical University were admitted to this retrospective study. Patients were divided into two groups based on viral response (no-PR and primary response). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were used to compare the overall survival of the two cohorts. Serum viral load comparison and subgroup analysis were performed. Additionally, risk factors were screened and the risk score chart was created. RESULTS: This study consisted of 101 patients with no-PR and 392 patients with primary response. In the different categories based on hepatitis B e antigen and HBV DNA, no-PR group had a poor 1-year overall survival (OS). In addition, in the alanine aminotransferase < 50 IU/L and cirrhosis groups, primary nonresponse was related to poor overall survival and progression-free survival. Based on multivariate risk analysis, primary non-response (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.883, 95% CI 1.289-2.751, P = 0.001), tumor multiplicity (HR = 1.488, 95% CI 1.036-2.136, P = 0.031), portal vein tumor thrombus (HR = 2.732, 95% CI 1.859-4.015, P < 0.001), hemoglobin < 120 g/L (HR = 2.211, 95% CI 1.548-3.158, P < 0.001) and tumor size ≥ 5 cm (HR = 2.202, 95% CI 1.533-3.163, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for 1-year OS. According to the scoring chart, patients were divided into three risk groups (high-, medium-, and low-risk groups) with mortality rates of 61.7%, 30.5%, and 14.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The level of viral decline at 3 months post-antiviral treatment may predict the OS of patients with HBV-related HCC, and primary non-response may shorten the median survival time of patients with high HBV-DNA levels.

Modulation of resting-state functional connectivity in default mode network is associated with the long-term treatment outcome in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Treatment non-response and recurrence are the main sources of disease burden in major depressive disorder (MDD). However, little is known about its neurobiological mechanism concerning the brain network changes accompanying pharmacotherapy. The present study investigated the changes in the intrinsic brain networks during 6-month antidepressant treatment phase associated with the treatment response and recurrence in MDD. METHODS: Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging was acquired from untreated patients with MDD and healthy controls at baseline. The patients' depressive symptoms were monitored by using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD). After 6 months of antidepressant treatment, patients were re-scanned and followed up every 6 months over 2 years. Traditional statistical analysis as well as machine learning approaches were conducted to investigate the longitudinal changes in macro-scale resting-state functional network connectivity (rsFNC) strength and micro-scale resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) associated with long-term treatment outcome in MDD. RESULTS: Repeated measures of the general linear model demonstrated a significant difference in the default mode network (DMN) rsFNC change before and after the 6-month antidepressant treatment between remitters and non-remitters. The difference in the rsFNC change over the 6-month antidepressant treatment between recurring and stable MDD was also specific to DMN. Machine learning analysis results revealed that only the DMN rsFC change successfully distinguished non-remitters from the remitters at 6 months and recurring from stable MDD during the 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that the intrinsic DMN connectivity could be a unique and important target for treatment and recurrence prevention in MDD.

Psychotherapy for Chronic In- and Outpatients with Common Mental Disorders: The "Choose Change" Effectiveness Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment non-response occurs regularly, but psychotherapy is seldom examined for such patients. Existing studies targeted single diagnoses, were relatively small, and paid little attention to treatment under real-world conditions. OBJECTIVE: The Choose Change trial tested whether psychotherapy was effective in treating chronic patients with treatment non-response in a transdiagnostic sample of common mental disorders across two variants of treatment delivery (inpatient and outpatient). METHODS: The controlled nonrandomized effectiveness trial was conducted between May 2016 and May 2021. The study took place in two psychiatric clinics with N = 200 patients (n = 108 inpatients and n = 92 outpatients). Treatment variants were integrated inpatient care versus outpatient care based on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) for approximately 12 weeks. Therapists delivered individualized and non-manualized ACT. Main outcome measures were symptoms (Brief Symptom Checklist [BSCL]); well-being (Mental Health Continuum-Short Form [MHC-SF]), and functioning (WHO Disability Assessment Schedule [WHO-DAS]). RESULTS: Both inpatients and outpatients showed decreases in symptomatology (i.e., BSCL: d = 0.68) and increases in well-being and functioning (MHC-SF: d = 0.60 and WHO-DAS: d = 0.70), with more improvement in the inpatients during treatment. Both groups maintained gains 1 year following treatment, and the groups did not significantly differ from each other at this timepoint. Psychological flexibility moderated impact of stress on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotherapy as practiced under routine conditions is effective for a sample of patients with common mental disorders, a long history of treatment experience and burden of disease, in both inpatient and outpatient settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered in the ISRCTN registry on May 20, 2016, with the registration number ISRCTN11209732.

Do animation videos increase participation in national health surveys? A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Declining response proportions in surveys have been observed internationally. Improving response proportions is important for the generalizability of the outcome. The aim of this study was to examine the potential of animation videos to improve response proportions and sample composition in health surveys. METHODS: A randomized trial was embedded in the Danish National Health Survey 2021 (n = 186,113) where the use of animation videos in the digital invitation letter was tested as a mean to increase response proportion. The effect of both demographic-targeted videos and a general video was tested. The sample was stratified into four subsamples; (1) individuals with non-western background and a non-Danish citizenship (n = 9,956), (2) men aged 16-24 years (n = 12,481), (3) women aged 75 years or older (n = 7,815) and (4) the remaining individuals (n = 155,861). The fourth subsample was randomized into two equal sized groups; a group receiving the general video and a control group receiving no video. Each of the first three subsamples was subsequently randomized into three subgroups with 25% receiving the target group video, 25% receiving the general video and 50% receiving no video. A total of four reminders (one digital and three postal) were sent to the eligible population. RESULTS: The use of animation videos resulted in similar or slightly lower overall response proportion compared to the control group. The different animation videos were found to have heterogeneous effects on response proportions. A positive effect was found among men aged 16-24 years before the delivery of the postal reminder for the targeted animation video compared to no video (odds ratio: 1.13; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.26). Overall, the targeted animation videos tended to produce higher response proportions than the general animation video. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneous effects of the videos suggest that there is some potential for the use of animation videos to improve response proportions and sample composition. The content, target group and timing of evaluation seem to be important for the animation videos to be successful. This warrants further research to better identify in which contexts, in which subgroups and under which circumstances, animation videos are useful to increase response proportions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT05520242, registered 08/26/2022.

Developing non-response weights to account for attrition-related bias in a longitudinal pregnancy cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohorts may be vulnerable to bias due to attrition. Inverse probability weights have been proposed as a method to help mitigate this bias. The current study used the "All Our Families" longitudinal pregnancy cohort of 3351 maternal-infant pairs and aimed to develop inverse probability weights using logistic regression models to predict study continuation versus drop-out from baseline to the three-year data collection wave. METHODS: Two methods of variable selection took place. One method was a knowledge-based a priori variable selection approach, while the second used Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The ability of each model to predict continuing participation through discrimination and calibration for both approaches were evaluated by examining area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and calibration plots, respectively. Stabilized inverse probability weights were generated using predicted probabilities. Weight performance was assessed using standardized differences of baseline characteristics for those who continue in study and those that do not, with and without weights (unadjusted estimates). RESULTS: The a priori and LASSO variable selection method prediction models had good and fair discrimination with AUROC of 0.69 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.67-0.71) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.75), respectively. Calibration plots and non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit Tests indicated that both the a priori (p = 0.329) and LASSO model (p = 0.242) were well-calibrated. Unweighted results indicated large (> 10%) standardized differences in 15 demographic variables (range: 11 - 29%), when comparing those who continued in the study with those that did not. Weights derived from the a priori and LASSO models reduced standardized differences relative to unadjusted estimates, with the largest differences of 13% and 5%, respectively. Additionally, when applying the same LASSO variable selection method to develop weights in future data collection waves, standardized differences remained below 10% for each demographic variable. CONCLUSION: The LASSO variable selection approach produced robust weights that addressed non-response bias more than the knowledge-driven approach. These weights can be applied to analyses across multiple longitudinal waves of data collection to reduce bias.

Impact of sampling and data collection methods on maternity survey response: a randomised controlled trial of paper and push-to-web surveys and a concurrent social media survey.

BACKGROUND: Novel survey methods are needed to tackle declining response rates. The 2020 National Maternity Survey included a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and social media survey to compare different combinations of sampling and data collection methods with respect to: response rate, respondent representativeness, prevalence estimates of maternity indicators and cost. METHODS: A two-armed parallel RCT and concurrent social media survey were conducted. Women in the RCT were sampled from ONS birth registrations and randomised to either a paper or push-to-web survey. Women in the social media survey self-selected through online adverts. The primary outcome was response rate in the paper and push-to-web surveys. In all surveys, respondent representativeness was assessed by comparing distributions of sociodemographic characteristics in respondents with those of the target population. External validity of prevalence estimates of maternity indicators was assessed by comparing weighted survey estimates with estimates from national routine data. Cost was also compared across surveys. RESULTS: The response rate was higher in the paper survey (n = 2,446) compared to the push-to-web survey (n = 2,165)(30.6% versus 27.1%, difference = 3.5%, 95%CI = 2.1-4.9, p < 0.0001). Compared to the target population, respondents in all surveys were less likely to be aged < 25 years, of Black or Minority ethnicity, born outside the UK, living in disadvantaged areas, living without a partner and primiparous. Women in the social media survey (n = 1,316) were less representative of the target population compared to women in the paper and push-to-web surveys. For some maternity indicators, weighted survey estimates were close to estimates from routine data, for other indicators there were discrepancies; no survey demonstrated consistently higher external validity than the other two surveys. Compared to the paper survey, the cost saving per respondent was £5.45 for the push-to-web survey and £22.42 for the social media survey. CONCLUSIONS: Push-to-web surveys may cost less than paper surveys but do not necessarily result in higher response rates. Social media surveys cost significantly less than paper and push-to-web surveys, but sample size may be limited by eligibility criteria and recruitment window and respondents may be less representative of the target population. However, reduced representativeness does not necessarily introduce more bias in weighted survey estimates.

Estimating tissue-specific TNF mRNA levels prior to anti-TNFα treatment may support therapeutic optimisation in IBD patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF) antagonists have improved the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), however, their usage and administration persist to be suboptimal. Here, we examined the relationship between tissue-specific TNF mRNA expression in mucosal biopsies from IBD patients and anti-TNF treatment response. METHODS: Archived tissue samples from patients with luminal IBD that had all been or were in treatment with anti-TNF were included (18 adults and 24 paediatric patients). Patients were stratified into three groups according to anti-TNF response: responders, primary non-responders (PNR) and secondary loss of response (SLOR). TNF mRNA was detected using RNAscope in situ hybridisation (ISH) and the expression was quantified using image analysis. RESULTS: The ISH analysis showed varying occurrence of TNF mRNA positive cells located in lamina propria and often with increased density in lymphoid follicles (LF). Consequently, expression estimates were obtained in whole tissue areas with and without LF. Significantly higher TNF mRNA expression levels were measured in adults compared to paediatric patients in both the analyses with and without LF (p = .015 and p = .016, respectively). Considering the relation to response, the adult and paediatric patients were evaluated separately. In adults, the TNF expression estimates were higher in PNRs compared to responders with and without LF (p = .017 and p = .024, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that adult PNR have significantly higher TNF mRNA levels than responders. This suggests that higher anti-TNF dose may be considered for IBD patients with high TNF mRNA expression estimates from the start of treatment.

Hierarchical Bayesian non-response models for error rates in forensic black-box studies.

Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal legal system. Historically, however, most feature-based fields of forensic science, including firearms examination and latent print analysis, have not been shown to be scientifically valid. Recently, black-box studies have been proposed as a means of assessing whether these feature-based disciplines are valid, at least in terms of accuracy, reproducibility and repeatability. In these studies, forensic examiners frequently either do not respond to every test item or select an answer equivalent to 'don't know'. Current black-box studies do not account for these high levels of missingness in statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the authors of black-box studies typically do not share the data necessary to meaningfully adjust estimates for the high proportion of missing responses. Borrowing from work in the context of small area estimation, we propose the use of hierarchical Bayesian models that do not require auxiliary data to adjust for non-response. Using these models, we offer the first formal exploration of the impact that missingness is playing in error rate estimations reported in black-box studies. We show that error rates currently reported as low as 0.4% could actually be at least 8.4% in models accounting for non-response where inconclusive decisions are counted as correct, and over 28% when inconclusives are counted as missing responses. These proposed models are not the answer to the missingness problem in black-box studies. But with the release of auxiliary information, they can be the foundation for new methodologies to adjust for missingness in error rate estimations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects'.

A network meta-analysis of efficacy, acceptability, and tolerability of antipsychotics in treatment-resistant schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Clozapine is considered as the standard treatment for this subgroup, but the evidence is not unequivocal. There are several potential alternatives being used because of the possible adverse effects of clozapine. We aimed to examine the efficacy and adverse events of different antipsychotics in treatment-resistant schizophrenia by performing a network meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group register for randomized-controlled trials (up to March 06, 2022) and MEDLINE (up to January 20, 2023). We included blinded and open studies and participants with a broad definition of treatment resistance. The primary outcome was overall symptoms of schizophrenia; secondary outcomes were response to treatment, positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia, discontinuation, side effects, quality of life, and functioning. The study was registered in Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/9nf2y/ ). RESULTS: We included 60 studies involving 6838 participants in the network meta-analysis. In the primary outcome, clozapine and olanzapine were more efficacious than risperidone, haloperidol, fluphenazine, sertindole, chlorpromazine, and quetiapine (range of mean SMDs, - 0.11 to - 0.48). The difference between clozapine and olanzapine was trivial and uncertain (SMD - 0.05, 95% CI, - 0.21 to 0.11). The result of other efficacy outcomes as well as subgroup and sensitivity analyses were consistent with the primary analysis. Clozapine and olanzapine were associated with more weight gain, and clozapine was associated with more sedation events compared to many other antipsychotics. CONCLUSIONS: Clozapine remains the gold standard for patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Olanzapine seems to be second-best and could be tried before switching to clozapine.

Non-response to first-line hormonal treatment for symptomatic endometriosis: overcoming tunnel vision. A narrative review.

One-fourth to one-third of women with endometriosis receiving first-line hormonal treatment lacks an adequate response in terms of resolution of painful symptoms. This phenomenon has been ascribed to "progesterone resistance", an entity that was theorized to explain the gap between the ubiquity of retrograde menstruation and the 10% prevalence of endometriosis among women of reproductive age.Nevertheless, the hypothesis of progesterone resistance is not free of controversies. As our understanding of endometriosis is increasing, authors are starting to set aside the traditionally accepted tunnel vision of endometriosis as a strictly pelvic disease, opening to a more comprehensive perspective of the condition. The question is: are patients not responding to first-line treatment because they have an altered signaling pathway for such treatment, or have we been overlooking a series of other pain contributors which may not be resolved by hormonal therapy?Finding an answer to this question is evermore impelling, for two reasons mainly. Firstly, because not recognizing the presence of further pain contributors adds a delay in treatment to the already existing delay in diagnosis of endometriosis. This may lead to chronicity of the untreated pain contributors as well as causing adverse consequences on quality of life and psychological health. Secondly, misinterpreting the consequences of untreated pain contributors as a non-response to standard first-line treatment may imply the adoption of second-line medical therapies or of surgery, which may entail non-negligible side effects and may not be free of physical, psychological and socioeconomic repercussions.The current narrative review aims at providing an overview of all the possible pain contributors in endometriosis, ranging from those strictly organic to those with a greater neuro-psychological component. Including these aspects in a broader psychobiological approach may provide useful suggestions for treating those patients who report persistent pain symptoms despite receiving first-line hormonal medical treatment.

Senior Health Clinic for 75-year-old home-dwelling Finns - study design, clinic protocol and non-response analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the Finnish policy on older people preventive activities, which maintain functional capacity and independent living, are emphasized. The Turku Senior Health Clinic, aimed at maintaining independent coping of all home-dwelling 75-year-old citizens in the city of Turku, was founded in the beginning of 2020. The aim of this paper is to describe design and protocol of the Turku Senior Health Clinic Study (TSHeC) and provide results of the non-response analysis. METHODS: The non-response analysis used data from 1296 participants (71% of those eligible) and 164 non-participants of the study. Sociodemographic, health status, psychosocial and physical functional ability indicators were included in the analysis. Participants and non-participants were also compared in respect to their neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage. Differences between participants and non-participants were tested using the Chi squared or Fisher´s exact test for categorical variables and t-test for continuous variable. RESULTS: The proportions of women (43% vs. 61%) and of those with only satisfying, poor or very poor self-rated financial status (38% vs. 49%) were significantly lower in non-participants than in participants. Comparison of the non-participants and participants in respect to their neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage showed no differences. The prevalence of hypertension (66% vs. 54%), chronic lung disease (20% vs. 11%), and kidney failure (6% vs. 3%) were higher among non-participants compared to participants. Feelings of loneliness were less frequent among non-participants (14%) compared to participants (32%). The proportions of those using assistive mobility devices (18% vs. 8%) as well as those having previous falls (12% vs. 5%) were higher in non-participants than in participants. CONCLUSIONS: The participation rate of TSHeC was high. No neighborhood differences in participation were found. Health status and physical functioning of non-participants seemed to be slightly worse than those of the participants, and more women than men participated. These differences may weaken the generalizability of the findings of the study. The differences have to be taken into account when recommendation for the content and implementation of preventive nurse-managed health clinic in primary health care in Finland is going to be given. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05634239; registration date; 1st of December 2022. Retrospectively registered.