Calibration of computational tools for missense variant pathogenicity classification and ClinGen recommendations for PP3/BP4 criteria.

Recommendations from the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and the Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) for interpreting sequence variants specify the use of computational predictors as "supporting" level of evidence for pathogenicity or benignity using criteria PP3 and BP4, respectively. However, score intervals defined by tool developers, and ACMG/AMP recommendations that require the consensus of multiple predictors, lack quantitative support. Previously, we described a probabilistic framework that quantified the strengths of evidence (supporting, moderate, strong, very strong) within ACMG/AMP recommendations. We have extended this framework to computational predictors and introduce a new standard that converts a tool's scores to PP3 and BP4 evidence strengths. Our approach is based on estimating the local positive predictive value and can calibrate any computational tool or other continuous-scale evidence on any variant type. We estimate thresholds (score intervals) corresponding to each strength of evidence for pathogenicity and benignity for thirteen missense variant interpretation tools, using carefully assembled independent data sets. Most tools achieved supporting evidence level for both pathogenic and benign classification using newly established thresholds. Multiple tools reached score thresholds justifying moderate and several reached strong evidence levels. One tool reached very strong evidence level for benign classification on some variants. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for evidence-based revisions of the PP3 and BP4 ACMG/AMP criteria using individual tools and future assessment of computational methods for clinical interpretation.

Assessment of the evidence yield for the calibrated PP3/BP4 computational recommendations.

PURPOSE: To investigate the number of rare missense variants observed in human genome sequences by ACMG/AMP PP3/BP4 evidence strength, following the calibrated PP3/BP4 computational recommendations. METHODS: Missense variants from the genome sequences of 300 probands from the Rare Genomes Project with suspected rare disease were analyzed using computational prediction tools able to reach PP3_Strong and BP4_Moderate evidence strengths (BayesDel, MutPred2, REVEL, and VEST4). The numbers of variants at each evidence strength were analyzed across disease-associated genes and genome-wide. RESULTS: From a median of 75.5 rare (≤1% allele frequency) missense variants in disease-associated genes per proband, a median of one reached PP3_Strong, 3-5 PP3_Moderate, and 3-5 PP3_Supporting. Most were allocated BP4 evidence (median 41-49 per proband) or were indeterminate (median 17.5-19 per proband). Extending the analysis to all protein-coding genes genome-wide, the number of PP3_Strong variants increased approximately 2.6-fold compared to disease-associated genes, with a median per proband of 1-3 PP3_Strong, 8-16 PP3_Moderate, and 10-17 PP3_Supporting. CONCLUSION: A small number of variants per proband reached PP3_Strong and PP3_Moderate in 3,424 disease-associated genes, and though not the intended use of the recommendations, also genome-wide. Use of PP3/BP4 evidence as recommended from calibrated computational prediction tools in the clinical diagnostic laboratory is unlikely to inappropriately contribute to the classification of an excessive number of variants as Pathogenic or Likely Pathogenic by ACMG/AMP rules.