Biomathematical modeling of fatigue due to sleep inertia.

Biomathematical models of fatigue capture the physiology of sleep/wake regulation and circadian rhythmicity to predict changes in neurobehavioral functioning over time. We used a biomathematical model of fatigue linked to the adenosinergic neuromodulator/receptor system in the brain as a framework to predict sleep inertia, that is, the transient neurobehavioral impairment experienced immediately after awakening. Based on evidence of an adenosinergic basis for sleep inertia, we expanded the biomathematical model with novel differential equations to predict the propensity for sleep inertia during sleep and its manifestation after awakening. Using datasets from large laboratory studies of sleep loss and circadian misalignment, we calibrated the model by fitting just two new parameters and then validated the model's predictions against independent data. The expanded model was found to predict the magnitude and time course of sleep inertia with generally high accuracy. Analysis of the model's dynamics revealed a bifurcation in the predicted manifestation of sleep inertia in sustained sleep restriction paradigms, which reflects the observed escalation of the magnitude of sleep inertia in scenarios with sleep restriction to less than âˆ¼ 4 h per day. Another emergent property of the model involves a rapid increase in the predicted propensity for sleep inertia in the early part of sleep followed by a gradual decline in the later part of the sleep period, which matches what would be expected based on the adenosinergic regulation of non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep and its known influence on sleep inertia. These dynamic behaviors provide confidence in the validity of our approach and underscore the predictive potential of the model. The expanded model provides a useful tool for predicting sleep inertia and managing impairment in 24/7 settings where people may need to perform critical tasks immediately after awakening, such as on-demand operations in safety and security, emergency response, and health care.

Assessing Multidimensional Approaches to Measure Program Outcomes in Human Service Organizations.

This study explores scholars' approaches to measure performance in nonprofit human service organizations. While acknowledging that each human service organization's unique mission makes it challenging to create a generalizable model across all nonprofit human service organizations, we propose three multidimensional frameworks for performance measurement derived from survey and qualitative data of organizations in this subsector. The frameworks will help researchers and practitioners rethink, adapt to, and reflect on the implications of their current methods of program performance measurement. While contributing to the academic discussion on the measurements used to evaluate human service organizations' program performance, our research also offers important insights for researchers, managers, marketers, board members, and funders to use moving forward.

Fatigue risk management based on self-reported fatigue: Expanding a biomathematical model of fatigue-related performance deficits to also predict subjective sleepiness.

Biomathematical models of fatigue can be used to predict neurobehavioral deficits during sleep/wake or work/rest schedules. Current models make predictions for objective performance deficits and/or subjective sleepiness, but known differences in the temporal dynamics of objective versus subjective outcomes have not been addressed. We expanded a biomathematical model of fatigue previously developed to predict objective performance deficits as measured on the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) to also predict subjective sleepiness as self-reported on the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). Four model parameters were re-estimated to capture the distinct dynamics of the KSS and account for the scale difference between KSS and PVT. Two separate ensembles of datasets - drawn from laboratory studies of sleep deprivation, sleep restriction, simulated night work, napping, and recovery sleep - were used for calibration and subsequent validation of the model for subjective sleepiness. The expanded model was found to exhibit high prediction accuracy for subjective sleepiness, while retaining high prediction accuracy for objective performance deficits. Application of the validated model to an example scenario based on cargo aviation operations revealed divergence between predictions for objective and subjective outcomes, with subjective sleepiness substantially underestimating accumulating objective impairment, which has important real-world implications. In safety-sensitive operations such as commercial aviation, where self-ratings of sleepiness are used as part of fatigue risk management, the systematic differences in the temporal dynamics of objective versus subjective measures of functional impairment point to a potentially significant risk evaluation sensitivity gap. The expanded biomathematical model of fatigue presented here provides a useful quantitative tool to bridge this previously unrecognized gap.

Factory optima: a web-based system for composition and analysis of manufacturing service networks based on a reusable model repository.

This paper reports on the development of Factory Optima, a web-based system that allows manufacturing process engineers to compose, optimise and perform trade-off analysis of manufacturing and contract service networks based on a reusable repository of performance models. Performance models formally describe process feasibility constraints and metrics of interest, such as cost, throughput and CO 2 emissions, as a function of fixed and control parameters, such as equipment and contract properties and settings. The repository contains performance models representing (1) unit manufacturing processes, (2) base contract services and (3) a composite steady-state service network. The proposed framework allows process engineers to hierarchically compose model instances of service networks, which can represent production cells, lines, factory facilities and supply chains, and perform deterministic optimisation based on mathematical programming and Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis. Factory Optima is demonstrated using a case study of a service network for a heat sink product which involves contract vendors and manufacturing activities, including cutting, shearing, Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machining with milling and drilling operations, quality inspection, finishing, and assembly.

WESSBAS: extraction of probabilistic workload specifications for load testing and performance prediction-a model-driven approach for session-based application systems.

The specification of workloads is required in order to evaluate performance characteristics of application systems using load testing and model-based performance prediction. Defining workload specifications that represent the real workload as accurately as possible is one of the biggest challenges in both areas. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents an approach that aims to automate the extraction and transformation of workload specifications for load testing and model-based performance prediction of session-based application systems. The approach (WESSBAS) comprises three main components. First, a system- and tool-agnostic domain-specific language (DSL) allows the layered modeling of workload specifications of session-based systems. Second, instances of this DSL are automatically extracted from recorded session logs of production systems. Third, these instances are transformed into executable workload specifications of load generation tools and model-based performance evaluation tools. We present transformations to the common load testing tool Apache JMeter and to the Palladio Component Model. Our approach is evaluated using the industry-standard benchmark SPECjEnterprise2010 and the World Cup 1998 access logs. Workload-specific characteristics (e.g., session lengths and arrival rates) and performance characteristics (e.g., response times and CPU utilizations) show that the extracted workloads match the measured workloads with high accuracy.

Diagnostic Value of Aortic Valve Calcification Levels in the Assessment of Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with low-gradient aortic stenosis (AS) and low transvalvular flow, dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) is recommended to determine AS severity, whereas the degree of aortic valve calcification (AVC) supposedly correlates with AS severity according to current European and American guidelines. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between AVC and AS severity as determined using echocardiography and DSE in patients with aortic valve area <1 cm2 and peak aortic valve velocity <4.0 m/s. METHODS: All patients underwent DSE to determine AS severity and multislice computed tomography to quantify AVC. Receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis was used to assess the diagnostic value of AVC for AS severity grading as determined using echocardiography and DSE in men and women. RESULTS: A total of 214 patients were included. Median age was 78 years (25th-75th percentile: 71-84 years) and 25% were women. Left ventricular ejection fraction was reduced (<50%) in 197 (92.1%) patients. Severe AS was diagnosed in 106 patients (49.5%). Moderate AS was diagnosed in 108 patients (50.5%; in 77 based on resting transthoracic echocardiography, in 31 confirmed using DSE). AVC score was high (≥2,000 for men or ≥1,200 for women) in 47 (44.3%) patients with severe AS and in 47 (43.5%) patients with moderate AS. AVC sensitivity was 44.3%, specificity was 56.5%, and positive and negative predictive values for severe AS were 50.0% and 50.8%, respectively. Area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.508 for men and 0.524 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-slice computed tomography-derived AVC scores showed poor discrimination between grades of AS severity using DSE and cannot replace DSE in the diagnostic work-up of low-gradient severe AS.

Utility of Crowdsourced User Experiments for Measuring the Central Tendency of User Performance: A Case of Error-Rate Model Evaluation in a Pointing Task.

The usage of crowdsourcing to recruit numerous participants has been recognized as beneficial in the human-computer interaction (HCI) field, such as for designing user interfaces and validating user performance models. In this work, we investigate its effectiveness for evaluating an error-rate prediction model in target pointing tasks. In contrast to models for operational times, a clicking error (i.e., missing a target) occurs by chance at a certain probability, e.g., 5%. Therefore, in traditional laboratory-based experiments, a lot of repetitions are needed to measure the central tendency of error rates. We hypothesize that recruiting many workers would enable us to keep the number of repetitions per worker much smaller. We collected data from 384 workers and found that existing models on operational time and error rate showed good fits (both R 2 > 0.95). A simulation where we changed the number of participants N P and the number of repetitions N repeat showed that the time prediction model was robust against small N P and N repeat, although the error-rate model fitness was considerably degraded. These findings empirically demonstrate a new utility of crowdsourced user experiments for collecting numerous participants, which should be of great use to HCI researchers for their evaluation studies.

A machine learning algorithm to improve building performance modeling during design.

Building design involves the optimization of factors affecting building performance such as building functions, comfort, safety, and energy. Building performance models (BPMs) help designers to evaluate and optimize such factors. However, the lack of design capabilities to validly describe human-building interactions for buildings under design may contribute to the development of inaccurate BPMs and the performance discrepancy between predictions and actual buildings. To address this challenge, a computational framework is proposed to increase the estimations performance of BPMs. The framework uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to combine an existing BPM and context-aware design-specific data describing design-specific human-building interactions captured by using immersive virtual environments (IVEs). The framework produces an augmented BPM that can predict building performance taking human-building interactions specific to a new design into consideration. It incorporates a feature ranking technique allowing designers to assess impacts of contextual factors on human-building interactions. The paper focuses on providing details of theories, experiment and data collection designs, and algorithms behind the framework as a companion paper of [1]. •A framework for combining contextual factors with building performance models to enhance their predictive performance.•Computation for determining impacts of contextual factors on human-building interaction.

The Critical Power Model as a Potential Tool for Anti-doping.

Existing doping detection strategies rely on direct and indirect biochemical measurement methods focused on detecting banned substances, their metabolites, or biomarkers related to their use. However, the goal of doping is to improve performance, and yet evidence from performance data is not considered by these strategies. The emergence of portable sensors for measuring exercise intensities and of player tracking technologies may enable the widespread collection of performance data. How these data should be used for doping detection is an open question. Herein, we review the basis by which performance models could be used for doping detection, followed by critically reviewing the potential of the critical power (CP) model as a prototypical performance model that could be used in this regard. Performance models are mathematical representations of performance data specific to the athlete. Some models feature parameters with physiological interpretations, changes to which may provide clues regarding the specific doping method. The CP model is a simple model of the power-duration curve and features two physiologically interpretable parameters, CP and W'. We argue that the CP model could be useful for doping detection mainly based on the predictable sensitivities of its parameters to ergogenic aids and other performance-enhancing interventions. However, our argument is counterbalanced by the existence of important limitations and unresolved questions that need to be addressed before the model is used for doping detection. We conclude by providing a simple worked example showing how it could be used and propose recommendations for its implementation.

Geographically weighted negative binomial regression applied to zonal level safety performance models.

Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with negative binomial distribution for errors, have been widely used to estimate safety at the level of transportation planning. The limited ability of this technique to take spatial effects into account can be overcome through the use of local models from spatial regression techniques, such as Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). Although GWPR is a system that deals with spatial dependency and heterogeneity and has already been used in some road safety studies at the planning level, it fails to account for the possible overdispersion that can be found in the observations on road-traffic crashes. Two approaches were adopted for the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) model to allow discrete data to be modeled in a non-stationary form and to take note of the overdispersion of the data: the first examines the constant overdispersion for all the traffic zones and the second includes the variable for each spatial unit. This research conducts a comparative analysis between non-spatial global crash prediction models and spatial local GWPR and GWNBR at the level of traffic zones in Fortaleza/Brazil. A geographic database of 126 traffic zones was compiled from the available data on exposure, network characteristics, socioeconomic factors and land use. The models were calibrated by using the frequency of injury crashes as a dependent variable and the results showed that GWPR and GWNBR achieved a better performance than GLM for the average residuals and likelihood as well as reducing the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, and the GWNBR model was more able to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the crash frequency.

Analysis and Optimization based on Reusable Knowledge Base of Process Performance Models.

In this paper, we propose an architectural design and software framework for fast development of descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics solutions for dynamic production processes. The proposed architecture and framework will support the storage of modular, extensible, and reusable Knowledge Base (KB) of process performance models. The approach requires developing automated methods that can translate the high-level models in the reusable KB into low-level specialized models required by a variety of underlying analysis tools, including data manipulation, optimization, statistical learning, estimation, and simulation. We also propose an organization and key structure for the reusable KB, composed of atomic and composite process performance models and domain-specific dashboards. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of the proposed architecture and framework by prototyping a decision-support system for process engineers. The decision support system allows users to hierarchically compose and optimize dynamic production processes via a graphical user interface.

Hierarchical performance estimation in the statistical label fusion framework.

Label fusion is a critical step in many image segmentation frameworks (e.g., multi-atlas segmentation) as it provides a mechanism for generalizing a collection of labeled examples into a single estimate of the underlying segmentation. In the multi-label case, typical label fusion algorithms treat all labels equally - fully neglecting the known, yet complex, anatomical relationships exhibited in the data. To address this problem, we propose a generalized statistical fusion framework using hierarchical models of rater performance. Building on the seminal work in statistical fusion, we reformulate the traditional rater performance model from a multi-tiered hierarchical perspective. The proposed approach provides a natural framework for leveraging known anatomical relationships and accurately modeling the types of errors that raters (or atlases) make within a hierarchically consistent formulation. Herein, the primary contributions of this manuscript are: (1) we provide a theoretical advancement to the statistical fusion framework that enables the simultaneous estimation of multiple (hierarchical) confusion matrices for each rater, (2) we highlight the amenability of the proposed hierarchical formulation to many of the state-of-the-art advancements to the statistical fusion framework, and (3) we demonstrate statistically significant improvement on both simulated and empirical data. Specifically, both theoretically and empirically, we show that the proposed hierarchical performance model provides substantial and significant accuracy benefits when applied to two disparate multi-atlas segmentation tasks: (1) 133 label whole-brain anatomy on structural MR, and (2) orbital anatomy on CT.

Statistical label fusion with hierarchical performance models.

Label fusion is a critical step in many image segmentation frameworks (e.g., multi-atlas segmentation) as it provides a mechanism for generalizing a collection of labeled examples into a single estimate of the underlying segmentation. In the multi-label case, typical label fusion algorithms treat all labels equally - fully neglecting the known, yet complex, anatomical relationships exhibited in the data. To address this problem, we propose a generalized statistical fusion framework using hierarchical models of rater performance. Building on the seminal work in statistical fusion, we reformulate the traditional rater performance model from a multi-tiered hierarchical perspective. This new approach provides a natural framework for leveraging known anatomical relationships and accurately modeling the types of errors that raters (or atlases) make within a hierarchically consistent formulation. Herein, we describe several contributions. First, we derive a theoretical advancement to the statistical fusion framework that enables the simultaneous estimation of multiple (hierarchical) performance models within the statistical fusion context. Second, we demonstrate that the proposed hierarchical formulation is highly amenable to the state-of-the-art advancements that have been made to the statistical fusion framework. Lastly, in an empirical whole-brain segmentation task we demonstrate substantial qualitative and significant quantitative improvement in overall segmentation accuracy.

Safety performance models for urban intersections in Brazil.

This paper presents a modeling effort for developing safety performance models (SPM) for urban intersections for three major Brazilian cities. The proposed methodology for calibrating SPM has been divided into the following steps: defining the safety study objective, choosing predictive variables and sample size, data acquisition, defining model expression and model parameters and model evaluation. Among the predictive variables explored in the calibration phase were exposure variables (AADT), number of lanes, number of approaches and central median status. SPMs were obtained for three cities: Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte and Brasília. The SPM developed for signalized intersections in Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte had the same structure and the most significant independent variables, which were AADT entering the intersection and number of lanes, and in addition, the coefficient of the best models were in the same range of values. For Brasília, because of the sample size, the signalized and unsignalized intersections were grouped, and the AADT was split in minor and major approaches, which were the most significant variables. This paper also evaluated SPM transferability to other jurisdiction. The SPM for signalized intersections from Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte have been recalibrated (in terms of the Cx) to the city of Porto Alegre. The models were adjusted following the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) calibration procedure and yielded Cx of 0.65 and 2.06 for Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte SPM respectively. This paper showed the experience and future challenges toward the initiatives on development of SPMs in Brazil, that can serve as a guide for other countries that are in the same stage in this subject.

Dynamic circadian modulation in a biomathematical model for the effects of sleep and sleep loss on waking neurobehavioral performance.

Recent experimental observations and theoretical advances have indicated that the homeostatic equilibrium for sleep/wake regulation--and thereby sensitivity to neurobehavioral impairment from sleep loss--is modulated by prior sleep/wake history. This phenomenon was predicted by a biomathematical model developed to explain changes in neurobehavioral performance across days in laboratory studies of total sleep deprivation and sustained sleep restriction. The present paper focuses on the dynamics of neurobehavioral performance within days in this biomathematical model of fatigue. Without increasing the number of model parameters, the model was updated by incorporating time-dependence in the amplitude of the circadian modulation of performance. The updated model was calibrated using a large dataset from three laboratory experiments on psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance, under conditions of sleep loss and circadian misalignment; and validated using another large dataset from three different laboratory experiments. The time-dependence of circadian amplitude resulted in improved goodness-of-fit in night shift schedules, nap sleep scenarios, and recovery from prior sleep loss. The updated model predicts that the homeostatic equilibrium for sleep/wake regulation--and thus sensitivity to sleep loss--depends not only on the duration but also on the circadian timing of prior sleep. This novel theoretical insight has important implications for predicting operator alertness during work schedules involving circadian misalignment such as night shift work.

La formulación de los objetivos instructivos en el contexto del currículo docente / Formulation of instructional objectives in the educational curriculum

La necesidad de lograr la formación de personas capaces de insertarse en la sociedad y, a la vez, desempeñarse al ritmo de sus cambios, es una demanda cada vez más marcada que exige, esta misma sociedad, a las instituciones encargadas del desarrollo de los procesos docente-educativos. Estos requieren, como toda actividad humana, una rigurosa planificación y control. Dentro de este sistema, los objetivos instructivos determinan el caudal de conocimientos que los estudiantes deben adquirir para el desarrollo de las habilidades que se aspira posean como egresados y que les permitan enfrentarse a los problemas básicos existentes en la producción y los servicios y resolverlos exitosamente, demostrando con ello independencia y creatividad. La determinación y enunciación de los objetivos instructivos deviene, entonces, como un aspecto vital dentro del contexto del currículo docente. Los autores describen cada uno de los elementos que deben estar presentes al momento de redactarlos y proponen una guía para su formulación.

Attaining the formation of individuals capable of integrating into the society and at the same time, of performing well at the rate of changes is increasingly demanded by the society from the institutions in charge of the development of the teaching-educational processes. Like others human activities, these processes require strict planning and control. The instructional objectives determine the wealth of knowledge that students should acquire for the development of the skills that they should have as medical graduates. These skills will allow them to face the basic problems in the field of production and services, and successfully solve them using their independent thinking and creativeness. The drawing up and the enunciation of instructional objectives then turn into vital aspects within the context of the educational curriculum. The authors of this paper described each of the elements that should be present at the time of drawing up and submitting a guideline for the formulation of objectives.