Neuronal Computation Underlying Inferential Reasoning in Humans and Mice.

Every day we make decisions critical for adaptation and survival. We repeat actions with known consequences. But we also draw on loosely related events to infer and imagine the outcome of entirely novel choices. These inferential decisions are thought to engage a number of brain regions; however, the underlying neuronal computation remains unknown. Here, we use a multi-day cross-species approach in humans and mice to report the functional anatomy and neuronal computation underlying inferential decisions. We show that during successful inference, the mammalian brain uses a hippocampal prospective code to forecast temporally structured learned associations. Moreover, during resting behavior, coactivation of hippocampal cells in sharp-wave/ripples represent inferred relationships that include reward, thereby "joining-the-dots" between events that have not been observed together but lead to profitable outcomes. Computing mnemonic links in this manner may provide an important mechanism to build a cognitive map that stretches beyond direct experience, thus supporting flexible behavior.

Prospectively Isolated Tetraspanin+ Neoblasts Are Adult Pluripotent Stem Cells Underlying Planaria Regeneration.

Proliferating cells known as neoblasts include pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) that sustain tissue homeostasis and regeneration of lost body parts in planarians. However, the lack of markers to prospectively identify and isolate these adult PSCs has significantly hampered their characterization. We used single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) and single-cell transplantation to address this long-standing issue. Large-scale scRNA-seq of sorted neoblasts unveiled a novel subtype of neoblast (Nb2) characterized by high levels of PIWI-1 mRNA and protein and marked by a conserved cell-surface protein-coding gene, tetraspanin 1 (tspan-1). tspan-1-positive cells survived sub-lethal irradiation, underwent clonal expansion to repopulate whole animals, and when purified with an anti-TSPAN-1 antibody, rescued the viability of lethally irradiated animals after single-cell transplantation. The first prospective isolation of an adult PSC bridges a conceptual dichotomy between functionally and molecularly defined neoblasts, shedding light on mechanisms governing in vivo pluripotency and a source of regeneration in animals. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

A Molecular Signature in Blood Reveals a Role for p53 in Regulating Malaria-Induced Inflammation.

Immunity that controls parasitemia and inflammation during Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria can be acquired with repeated infections. A limited understanding of this complex immune response impedes the development of vaccines and adjunctive therapies. We conducted a prospective systems biology study of children who differed in their ability to control parasitemia and fever following Pf infection. By integrating whole-blood transcriptomics, flow-cytometric analysis, and plasma cytokine and antibody profiles, we demonstrate that a pre-infection signature of B cell enrichment, upregulation of T helper type 1 (Th1) and Th2 cell-associated pathways, including interferon responses, and p53 activation associated with control of malarial fever and coordinated with Pf-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and Fc receptor activation to control parasitemia. Our hypothesis-generating approach identified host molecules that may contribute to differential clinical outcomes during Pf infection. As a proof of concept, we have shown that enhanced p53 expression in monocytes attenuated Plasmodium-induced inflammation and predicted protection from fever.

Role of Gut Microbiota in Statin-Associated New-Onset Diabetes-A Cross-Sectional and Prospective Analysis of the FINRISK 2002 Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is treated effectively with statins, but treatment has the potential to induce new-onset type-2 diabetes. Gut microbiota may contribute to this outcome variability. We assessed the associations of gut microbiota diversity and composition with statins. Bacterial associations with statin-associated new-onset type-2 diabetes (T2D) risk were also prospectively evaluated. METHODS: We examined shallow-shotgun-sequenced fecal samples from 5755 individuals in the FINRISK-2002 population cohort with a 17+-year-long register-based follow-up. Alpha-diversity was quantified using Shannon index and beta-diversity with Aitchison distance. Species-specific differential abundances were analyzed using general multivariate regression. Prospective associations were assessed with Cox regression. Applicable results were validated using gradient boosting. RESULTS: Statin use associated with differing taxonomic composition (R2, 0.02%; q=0.02) and 13 differentially abundant species in fully adjusted models (MaAsLin; q<0.05). The strongest positive association was with Clostridium sartagoforme (ß=0.37; SE=0.13; q=0.02) and the strongest negative association with Bacteroides cellulosilyticus (ß=-0.31; SE=0.11; q=0.02). Twenty-five microbial features had significant associations with incident T2D in statin users, of which only Bacteroides vulgatus (HR, 1.286 [1.136-1.457]; q=0.03) was consistent regardless of model adjustment. Finally, higher statin-associated T2D risk was seen with [Ruminococcus] torques (ΔHRstatins, +0.11; q=0.03), Blautia obeum (ΔHRstatins, +0.06; q=0.01), Blautia sp. KLE 1732 (ΔHRstatins, +0.05; q=0.01), and beta-diversity principal component 1 (ΔHRstatin, +0.07; q=0.03) but only when adjusting for demographic covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Statin users have compositionally differing microbiotas from nonusers. The human gut microbiota is associated with incident T2D risk in statin users and possibly has additive effects on statin-associated new-onset T2D risk.

Phenoconversion in pure autonomic failure: a multicentre prospective longitudinal cohort study.

We aimed to describe the clinical features of patients with pure autonomic failure (PAF) preceding phenoconversion that could be useful as predictive markers for advancing α-synuclein-associated neurodegeneration of the brain. Patients diagnosed with PAF were evaluated at eight centres (seven US-based and one European) and enrolled in a longitudinal observational cohort study (NCT01799915). Subjects underwent detailed assessments of motor, sleep, olfactory, cognitive and autonomic function and were followed prospectively to determine whether they developed parkinsonism or dementia for up to 10 years. We identified incident cases of Parkinson's disease (PD), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) or multiple system atrophy (MSA) and computed hazard ratios for phenoconversion as functions of clinical features. A total of 209 participants with PAF with a median disease duration of 6 years (IQR: 3-10) were enrolled. Of those, 149 provided follow-up information at an office or telemedicine visit. After a mean follow-up duration of 3 years, 48 (33%) participants phenoconverted (42% to PD, 35% to DLB and 23% to MSA). Faster phenoconversion from study enrolment to any diagnosis was associated with urinary and sexual dysfunction [hazard ratio (HR) 5.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-22 and HR: 3.6, 95% CI: 1.1-12] followed by subtle motor signs (HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.2-6), trouble swallowing (HR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.5) and changes in speech (HR:2.4, 95% CI:1.1-4.8) at enrolment. Subjects reporting deterioration of handwriting were more likely to phenoconvert to PD (HR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1-5.9) and those reporting difficulty handling utensils were more likely to phenoconvert to DLB (HR: 6.8, 95% CI: 1.2-38). Patients with a younger age of PAF onset (HR: 11, 95% CI: 2.6-46), preserved olfaction (HR: 8.7, 95% CI: 1.7-45), anhidrosis (HR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1-3.1, P = 0.042) and severe urinary problems (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1-2.5, P = 0.033) were more likely to phenoconvert to MSA. The best autonomic predictor of PD was a blunted heart rate increase during the tilt-table test (HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 1.4-26). Patients with PAF have an estimated 12% (95% CI: 9-15%) per year annual risk following study entry of phenoconverting to a manifest CNS synucleinopathy.

A streamlined pathway for transcatheter aortic valve implantation: the BENCHMARK study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is significant potential to streamline the clinical pathway for patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of implementing BENCHMARK best practices on the efficiency and safety of TAVI in 28 sites in 7 European countries. METHODS: This was a study of patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing TAVI with balloon-expandable valves before and after implementation of BENCHMARK best practices. Principal objectives were to reduce hospital length of stay (LoS) and duration of intensive care stay. Secondary objective was to document patient safety. RESULTS: Between January 2020 and March 2023, 897 patients were documented prior to and 1491 patients after the implementation of BENCHMARK practices. Patient characteristics were consistent with a known older TAVI population and only minor differences. Mean LoS was reduced from 7.7 ± 7.0 to 5.8 ± 5.6 days (median 6 vs. 4 days; P < .001). Duration of intensive care was reduced from 1.8 to 1.3 days (median 1.1 vs. 0.9 days; P < .001). Adoption of peri-procedure best practices led to increased use of local anaesthesia (96.1% vs. 84.3%; P < .001) and decreased procedure (median 47 vs. 60 min; P < .001) and intervention times (85 vs. 95 min; P < .001). Thirty-day patient safety did not appear to be compromised with no differences in all-cause mortality (0.6% in both groups combined), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (1.4%), life-threatening bleeding (1.3%), stage 2/3 acute kidney injury (0.7%), and valve-related readmission (1.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Broad implementation of BENCHMARK practices contributes to improving efficiency of TAVI pathway reducing LoS and costs without compromising patient safety.

Metabolomic profiles during early childhood and risk of food allergies and asthma in multiethnic children from a prospective birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: There are increasing numbers of metabolomic studies in food allergy (FA) and asthma, which, however, are predominantly limited by cross-sectional designs, small sample size, and being conducted in European populations. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify metabolites unique to and shared by children with FA and/or asthma in a racially diverse prospective birth cohort, the Boston Birth Cohort. METHODS: Mass spectrometry-based untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed using venous plasma collected in early childhood (n = 811). FA was diagnosed according to clinical symptoms consistent with an acute hypersensitivity reaction at food ingestion and food specific-IgE > 0.35 kU/L. Asthma was defined on the basis of physician diagnosis. Generalized estimating equations were applied to analyze metabolomic associations with FA and asthma, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: During a mean ± standard deviation follow-up of 11.8 ± 5.2 years from birth, 78 children developed FA and 171 developed asthma. Androgenic and pregnenolone steroids were significantly associated with a lower risk of FA, especially for egg allergy. N,N,N-trimethyl-5-aminovalerate (odds ratio [OR] = 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48-0.87), and 1-oleoyl-2-arachidonoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphoinositol (OR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.66-0.90) were inversely associated with FA risk. Orotidine (OR = 4.73; 95% CI = 2.2-10.2) and 4-cholesten-3-one (OR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.35-0.77) were the top 2 metabolites associated with risk of asthma, although they had no association with FA. In comparison, children with both FA and asthma exhibited an altered metabolomic profile that aligned with that of FA, including altered levels of lipids and steroids. CONCLUSION: In this US multiethnic prospective birth cohort, unique and shared alterations in plasma metabolites during early childhood were associated with risk of developing FA and/or asthma. These findings await further validation.

Nasopharyngeal airway long noncoding RNAs of infants with bronchiolitis and subsequent risk of developing childhood asthma.

BACKGROUND: Severe bronchiolitis (ie, bronchiolitis requiring hospitalization) during infancy is a major risk factor for developing childhood asthma. However, the biological mechanisms linking these 2 conditions remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate the longitudinal relationship between nasopharyngeal airway long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) in infants with severe bronchiolitis and subsequent asthma development. METHODS: In this multicenter prospective cohort study of infants with severe bronchiolitis, we performed RNA sequencing of nasopharyngeal airway lncRNAs at index hospitalization. First, we identified differentially expressed lncRNAs (DE-lncRNAs) associated with asthma development by age 6 years. Second, we investigated the associations of DE-lncRNAs with asthma-related clinical characteristics. Third, to characterize the function of DE-lncRNAs, we performed pathway analysis for mRNA targeted by DE-lncRNAs. Finally, we examined the associations of DE-lncRNAs with nasal cytokines at index hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 343 infants with severe bronchiolitis (median age, 3 months), we identified 190 DE-lncRNAs (false-discovery rate [FDR] < 0.05) associated with asthma development (eg, LINC02145, RAMP2-AS1, and PVT1). These DE-lncRNAs were associated with asthma-related clinical characteristics (FDR < 0.05), for example, respiratory syncytial virus or rhinovirus infection, infant eczema, and IgE sensitization. Furthermore, DE-lncRNAs were characterized by asthma-related pathways, including mitogen-activated protein kinase, FcɛR, and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)-protein kinase B signaling pathways (FDR < 0.05). These DE-lncRNAs were also associated with nasal cytokines (eg, IL-1ß, IL-4, and IL-13; FDR < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter cohort study of infants with severe bronchiolitis, we identified nasopharyngeal airway lncRNAs associated with childhood asthma development, characterized by asthma-related clinical characteristics, asthma-related pathways, and nasal cytokines. Our approach identifies lncRNAs underlying the bronchiolitis-asthma link and facilitates the early identification of infants at high risk of subsequent asthma development.

Detection and Clearance of Type-Specific and Phylogenetically Related Genital Human Papillomavirus Infections in Young Women in New Heterosexual Relationships.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections is essential to cervical cancer prevention planning. We estimated HPV type-specific infection detection and clearance in young women. METHODS: The HPV Infection and Transmission among Couples through Heterosexual activity (HITCH) study is a prospective cohort of 502 college-age women who recently initiated a heterosexual relationship. We tested vaginal samples collected at 6 clinical visits over 24 months for 36 HPV types. Using rates and Kaplan-Meier analysis, we estimated time-to-event statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for detection of incident infections and clearance of incident and present-at-baseline infections (separately). We conducted analyses at the woman- and HPV-levels, with HPV types grouped by phylogenetic relatedness. RESULTS: By 24 months, we detected incident infections in 40.4% (CI, 33.4%-48.4%) of women. Incident subgenus 1 (43.4; CI, 33.6-56.4), 2 (47.1; CI, 39.9-55.5), and 3 (46.6; CI, 37.7-57.7) infections cleared at similar rates per 1000 infection-months. We observed similar homogeny in HPV-level clearance rates among present-at-baseline infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses provide type-specific infection natural history estimates for cervical cancer prevention planning. HPV-level analyses did not clearly indicate that high oncogenic risk subgenus 2 infections persist longer than their low oncogenic risk subgenera 1 and 3 counterparts.

Mouse Behavior on the Trial-Unique Nonmatching-to-Location (TUNL) Touchscreen Task Reflects a Mixture of Distinct Working Memory Codes and Response Biases.

The trial-unique nonmatching to location (TUNL) touchscreen task shows promise as a translational assay of working memory (WM) deficits in rodent models of autism, ADHD, and schizophrenia. However, the low-level neurocognitive processes that drive behavior in the TUNL task have not been fully elucidated. In particular, it is commonly assumed that the TUNL task predominantly measures spatial WM dependent on hippocampal pattern separation, but this proposition has not previously been tested. In this project, we tested this question using computational modeling of behavior from male and female mice performing the TUNL task (N = 163 across three datasets; 158,843 trials). Using this approach, we empirically tested whether TUNL behavior solely measured retrospective WM, or whether it was possible to deconstruct behavior into additional neurocognitive subprocesses. Overall, contrary to common assumptions, modeling analyses revealed that behavior on the TUNL task did not primarily reflect retrospective spatial WM. Instead, behavior was best explained as a mixture of response strategies, including both retrospective WM (remembering the spatial location of a previous stimulus) and prospective WM (remembering an anticipated future behavioral response) as well as animal-specific response biases. These results suggest that retrospective spatial WM is just one of a number of cognitive subprocesses that contribute to choice behavior on the TUNL task. We suggest that findings can be understood within a resource-rational framework, and use computational model simulations to propose several task-design principles that we predict will maximize spatial WM and minimize alternative behavioral strategies in the TUNL task.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Touchscreen tasks represent a paradigm shift for assessment of cognition in nonhuman animals by automating large-scale behavioral data collection. Their main relevance, however, depends on the assumption of functional equivalence to cognitive domains in humans. The trial-unique, delayed nonmatching to location (TUNL) touchscreen task has revolutionized the study of rodent spatial working memory. However, its assumption of functional equivalence to human spatial working memory is untested. We leveraged previously untapped single-trial TUNL data to uncover a novel set of hierarchically ordered cognitive processes that underlie mouse behavior on this task. The strategies used demonstrate multiple cognitive approaches to a single behavioral outcome and the requirement for more precise task design and sophisticated data analysis in interpreting rodent spatial working memory.

Association of HIV Infection and Incident Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Among 143 001 Veterans.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Previous cross-sectional data suggest there is a higher prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in PWH than in those without HIV. Whether PWH have an increased risk of incident AAA compared with those without HIV is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed data among participants without prevalent AAA from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a prospective, observational, longitudinal cohort of veterans with HIV matched 1:2 with veterans without HIV infection. We calculated AAA rates by HIV status and assessed the association between HIV infection and incident AAA using Cox proportional hazards models. We defined AAA using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th or 10th revision, or Current Procedural Terminology codes and adjusted all models for demographic characteristics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and substance use. Secondary analyses examined the association between time-varying CD4+ T-cell count or HIV viral load and incident AAA. RESULTS: Among 143 001 participants (43 766 with HIV), over a median follow-up of 8.7 years, there were 2431 incident AAA events (26.4% among PWH). Rates of incident AAA per 1000 person-years were similar among PWH (2.0 [95% CI, 1.9-2.2]) and people without HIV (2.2 [95% CI, 2.1-2.3]). There was no evidence that HIV infection increased the risk of incident AAA compared with no HIV infection (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.92-1.13]). In adjusted analyses with time-varying CD4+ T-cell counts or HIV viral load, PWH with CD4+ T-cell counts <200 cells/mm3 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.02-1.65]) or HIV viral load ≥500 copies/mL (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.09-1.52]) had an increased risk of AAA compared with those without HIV. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection is associated with an increased risk of AAA among those with low CD4+ T-cell counts or elevated HIV viral load over time.

Association of sdLDL-C With Incident Carotid Plaques With Stable and Vulnerable Morphology: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C) particles are more atherogenic than large and intermediate low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) subfractions. We sought to investigate the association of sdLDL-C and the sdLDL-C/LDL-C ratio with incident carotid plaques with stable and vulnerable morphology in rural China. METHODS: This community-based cohort study used data from the RICAS study (Rose Asymptomatic Intracranial Artery Stenosis), which enrolled 887 participants (aged ≥40 years) who were living in Kongcun Town, Pingyin County, Shandong, and free of carotid plaques and had no history of clinical stroke or transient ischemic attack at baseline (2017). Incident carotid plaques and their vulnerability were detected by carotid ultrasound at follow-up (2021). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore the association of sdLDL-C or sdLDL-C/LDL-C ratio with incident carotid plaques while adjusting for demographic factors, vascular risk factors, and follow-up time. RESULTS: Of the 887 participants (mean age [SD], 53.89 [8.67%] years; 54.34% women), 179 (20.18%) were detected with incident carotid plaques during an average follow-up of 3.94 years (SD=0.14). Higher sdLDL-C or sdLDL-C/LDL-C ratio, but not LDL-C, was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident carotid plaques. The upper tertile of sdLDL-C (versus lower tertile) was associated with the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio of 2.48 (95% CI, 1.00-6.15; P=0.049; P for linear trend=0.046) for carotid plaques with vulnerable morphology (n=41), and the association remained significant in participants with normal LDL-C (<130 mg/dL; n=693; upper versus lower tertile: odds ratio, 3.38 [95% CI, 1.15-9.90]; P=0.027; P for linear trend=0.025). Moreover, the sdLDL-C/LDL-C ratio was associated with a higher odds ratio of incident carotid plaques in participants without diabetes (P for interaction=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Higher sdLDL-C was associated with an increased risk of incident carotid plaques, especially carotid plaques with vulnerable morphology, even in participants with normal LDL-C. This suggests the potential of sdLDL-C as a therapeutic target for stroke prevention. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.chictr.org.cn; Unique identifier: ChiCTR1800017197.

Effectiveness of the 2023-2024 Formulation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 mRNA Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the 2023-2024 formulation of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine protects against COVID-19. METHODS: Employees of Cleveland Clinic in employment when the 2023-2024 formulation of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine became available to employees, were included. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 over the following 17 weeks was examined prospectively. Protection provided by vaccination (analyzed as a time-dependent covariate) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression, with time-dependent coefficients used to separate effects before and after the JN.1 lineage became dominant. The analysis was adjusted for the propensity to get tested, age, sex, pandemic phase when the last prior COVID-19 episode occurred, and the number of prior vaccine doses. RESULTS: Among 48210 employees, COVID-19 occurred in 2462 (5.1%) during the 17 weeks of observation. In multivariable analysis, the 2023-2024 formula vaccinated state was associated with a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 before the JN.1 lineage became dominant (HR, .58; 95% C.I., .49-.68, p-value < .001), and lower risk but one that did not reach statistical significance after (HR, .81; 95% C.I., .65-1.01, p-value 0.06). Estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 42% (95% C.I., 32%-51%) before the JN.1 lineage became dominant, and 19% (C.I., -1%-35%) after. Risk of COVID-19 was lower among those previously infected with an XBB or more recent lineage, and increased with the number of vaccine doses previously received. CONCLUSIONS: The 2023-2024 formula COVID-19 vaccine given to working-aged adults afforded modest protection overall against COVID-19 before the JN.1 lineage became dominant, and less protection after.

Household Transmission Dynamics of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-Infected Children: A Multinational, Controlled Case-Ascertained Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is highly prevalent but its acute and chronic implications have been minimally described. METHODS: In this controlled case-ascertained household transmission study, we recruited asymptomatic children <18 years with SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing performed at 12 tertiary care pediatric institutions in Canada and the United States. We attempted to recruit all test-positive children and 1 to 3 test-negative, site-matched controls. After 14 days' follow-up we assessed the clinical (ie, symptomatic) and combined (ie, test-positive, or symptomatic) secondary attack rates (SARs) among household contacts. Additionally, post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) was assessed in SARS-CoV-2-positive participating children after 90 days' follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 111 test-positive and 256 SARS-CoV-2 test-negative asymptomatic children were enrolled between January 2021 and April 2022. After 14 days, excluding households with co-primary cases, the clinical SAR among household contacts of SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative index children was 10.6% (19/179; 95% CI: 6.5%-16.1%) and 2.0% (13/663; 95% CI: 1.0%-3.3%), respectively (relative risk = 5.4; 95% CI: 2.7-10.7). In households with a SARS-CoV-2-positive index child, age <5 years, being pre-symptomatic (ie, developed symptoms after test), and testing positive during Omicron and Delta circulation periods (vs earlier) were associated with increased clinical and combined SARs among household contacts. Among 77 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children with 90-day follow-up, 6 (7.8%; 95% CI: 2.9%-16.2%) reported PCC. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children, especially those <5 years, are important contributors to household transmission, with 1 in 10 exposed household contacts developing symptomatic illness within 14 days. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children may develop PCC.

HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy. METHODS: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [ß-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations. CONCLUSIONS: The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2.

Circulating levels of biomarkers and risk of ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in the UK Biobank study.

Observational studies have shown associations between circulating levels of various biomarkers (eg, total cholesterol [TC], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL], insulin-like growth factor-1 [IGF-1], C-reactive protein [CRP] and glycated hemoglobin-1c [HbA1c]) and the risk of invasive breast cancer (IBC). Ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast (DCIS) is a nonobligate precursor of IBC and shares several risk factors with it. However, the relationship between these biomarkers and DCIS risk remains unexplored. We studied the association between circulating levels of TC, LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), Lipoprotein (a) (Lp-(a)), IGF-1, CRP and HbA1c, with the risk of DCIS in 156801women aged 40 to 69 years and breast cancer-free at enrolment when blood samples and information on demographic and health-related factors were collected. Incident cases of DCIS were ascertained during the follow-up via linkage to the UK cancer registries Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of interest. In all, 969 DCIS incident cases were diagnosed during 11.4 years of follow-up. Total cholesterol was inversely associated with the risk of DCIS (HRquintile(Q)5vsQ1 = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.27-0.82, Ptrend = .008). Conversely, LDL-C was positively associated with DCIS risk (HRQ3vsQ1 = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-2.04, HRQ4vsQ1 = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.04-2.47, HRQ5vsQ1 = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.36-3.88, Ptrend = .004). In postmenopausal women, CRP had a weak positive association with DCIS risk, while HbA1c showed a nonlinear association with the risk. These results, in conjunction with those from previous studies on IBC, provide support for the association of several biomarkers with the risk of an early stage of breast cancer.

Circulating endogenous sex steroids and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in men and women.

Thyroid cancer (TC) is substantially more common in women than in men, pointing to a possible role of sex steroid hormones. We investigated the association between circulating sex steroid hormones, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and the risk of differentiated TC in men and women within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. During follow-up, we identified 333 first primary incident cases of differentiated TC (152 in pre/peri-menopausal women, 111 in post-menopausal women, and 70 in men) and 706 cancer-free controls. Women taking exogenous hormones at blood donation were excluded. Plasma concentrations of testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone, estradiol, estrone and progesterone (in pre-menopausal women only) were performed using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry method. SHBG concentrations were measured by immunoassay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models adjusted for possible confounders. No significant associations were observed in men and postmenopausal women, while a borderline significant increase in differentiated TC risk was observed with increasing testosterone (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 1.68, 95% CI: 0.96-2.92, ptrend = .06) and androstenedione concentrations in pre/perimenopausal women (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 1.78, 95% CI: 0.96-3.30, ptrend = .06, respectively). A borderline decrease in risk was observed for the highest progesterone/estradiol ratio (adjusted OR T3 vs T1: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.28-1.05, ptrend = .07). Overall, our results do not support a major role of circulating sex steroids in the etiology of differentiated TC in post-menopausal women and men but may suggest an involvement of altered sex steroid production in pre-menopausal women.

Association between coffee and tea consumption and ovarian cancer incidence: A prospective analysis in the PLCO dataset.

Epidemiological evidence regarding the relationship between coffee and tea consumption and the risk of ovarian cancer (OC) is inconsistent. Therefore, we aimed to quantitatively investigate this topic in a large prospective cohort study. This cohort study included 24,715 individuals recruited from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trials between 1993 and 2001. The data used for our analysis included the latest follow-up information collected up to 2015. Coffee intake of ≥4 cups/day (hazard ratio [HR], 0.586; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.356-0.966) or caffeine intake of 458.787 mg/day (HR, 0.607; 95% CI: 0.411-0.895) were associated with the lowest HR of incident OC in the fully adjusted model. Participants who consumed varying amounts of tea did not exhibit a statistically significant reduction in the risk of OC. Our findings suggest that a higher consumption of coffee or caffeine is associated with a reduced risk of OC. However, no statistically significant association was observed between tea consumption and the risk of OC.

Plasma Albumin, Bilirubin, and Uric Acid and the Subsequent Risk of Cancer: A Case-Cohort Study in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

Several epidemiological studies have investigated the circulating levels of albumin, bilirubin, and uric acid (UA) in relation to cancer risk; however, they have provided equivocal evidence. In this prospective case-cohort study, we aimed to explore the association of plasma albumin, bilirubin, and UA levels with cancer incidence. We measured the plasma levels of albumin, bilirubin, and UA and investigated their association with cancer incidence in 3,584 cases and 4,270 randomly selected participants with a median follow-up of 15.8 years. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of total cancer for the highest (Q4) versus lowest quartile (Q1) was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67-0.90, P for trend: <0.001) for albumin. This association was attenuated after excluding liver cancer cases with lower plasma albumin levels. Plasma bilirubin levels were positively related to liver cancer but inversely to total cancer after excluding liver cancer with adjusted HR Q4 vs. Q1 of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74-0.99, P for trend = 0.015). Plasma UA levels were not dose-responsively associated with total cancer risk. Higher plasma bilirubin levels were associated with a decreased risk of total cancer after excluding liver cancer, which is likely attributed to the antioxidant properties of bilirubin.

Prediagnostic whole blood cadmium and molybdenum associated with pancreatic cancer in an American cohort.

Environmental exposures such as cadmium might be contributing to the increasing incidence of pancreatic cancer. Few prospective studies have examined the association between trace elements and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We conducted a nested case-control study in participants aged 55-74 years at baseline from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial cohort to examine the association between 12 trace elements measured in predignostic whole blood and PDAC. From May 1998 through December 2014, 318 incident PDAC cases were identified during follow-up to 16.7 years. Two controls (n = 636) alive when each case was diagnosed were selected and matched by age (+ 5 years), sex, calendar date of blood draw (2-month blocks), and race and ethnic group. We used multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Cadmium and molybdenum were associated with PDAC [highest compared to lowest quintile: cadmium OR=1.81; 95% CI: 01.12, 2.95; P-trend = 0.03; molybdenum OR=0.50; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.80; P-trend = 0.02]. The inverse molybdenum association was only observed among ever smokers (OR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.58, P-trend= 0.003, P-interaction=0.03) with no association in never smokers. Lead, arsenic, and other trace elements were not associated with PDAC. Our results support that increasing prediagnostic whole blood cadmium increases while molybdenum reduces PDAC risk.