RESUMO
The aim of this study was to assess the impact of exposure to tap water lead concentration ([Pb]TW) occurring in schools or daycares on blood lead level (BLL) of attending children. Given the potentially wide variations in space and time of ([Pb]TW) documented in the literature, a simple probabilistic toxicokinetic (STK) model that allows the simulation of the time-varying evolution of BLL in response to these variations was developed. Thus, basic toxicokinetic equations were assembled to simulate BLL in a typical infant, toddler and pupil. The STK model's steady-state BLL predictions showed good correspondence when validated against Integrated Exposure and Uptake BioKinetic model predictions for comparable [Pb]TW values. Exposures to three distributions of [Pb]TW in specific sets of Canadian schools and daycares documented in the scientific literature were simulated probabilistically with Monte Carlo simulations. For the highest distribution of [Pb]TW simulated (median, 90th percentile = 24, 412 µg/L), average annual BLL (median, 97.5th percentile) varies between 1.5 and 6.4 µg/dL in infant and 1.1 and 3 µg/dL in pupils. Toddler's results were midway between those from the infants and pupils. Under this exposure scenario, the infant may present BLL > 5 µg/dL for a significant number of days over the course of the academic year (median; 97.5th: 17; 227 days). However, peak exposure may remain unnoticed if rare and drowned out by the background BLL. In conclusion, even if they may be sparse, peak exposure episodes to [Pb]TW in schools and daycares may suffice to increased BLL in attending individuals. This finding emphasizes the need for further characterization of [Pb]TW in schools and daycares in order to identify potentially problematic institutions and therefore avoid undesirable exposures for the children attending them.