Predictors for Lymph Node Metastasis and Survival of Patients with T1b Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Treated with Surgery and Endoscopic Therapy: An Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Limited data exists regarding the long-term outcomes of endoscopic therapy (ET) with or without chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for T1b esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Our aim was to identify the risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in T1b EAC and assess how the chosen treatment modality affects overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). METHODS: We analyzed histologically confirmed T1b EAC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2018 using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Focusing on T1bN0M0 staging, we divided the patients into two groups: ET (n=174) and surgery (n=769), and calculated OS and CSS rates. RESULTS: Out of 1418 patients with T1b EAC, 228 cases (16.1%) exhibited LNM at diagnosis. Notable risk factors for LNM included poorly differentiated tumor and lesion size ≥20 mm. For T1bN0M0 cases, ET was commonly performed from 2009 to 2018 (OR 4.3), especially for patients aged ≥ 65 years (OR 3.1) with tumor size <20mm (OR 2.3). During 50 months median follow-up, age ≥ 65 years (HR 1.9), ET (HR 1.5), and CRT (HR 1.4) were associated with poorer OS. Factors linked to decreased CSS were age ≥ 65 years (sub hazard ratio (SHR) 1.6), poorly differentiated tumors (SHR 1.5), and CRT (SHR 1.5). CONCLUSION: In T1b EAC, tumor size ≥20mm and poor differentiation are notable risk factors for LNM. ET showed comparable CSS outcomes to surgery for carefully selected T1bN0M0 lesions. CRT did not provide additional survival benefit for these lesions; however, large scale studies are required to validate this finding.

A nomogram and risk classification system for predicting cancer-specific survival in tall cell variant of papillary thyroid cancer: a SEER-based study.

BACKGROUND: Tall cell variant (TCV) of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common aggressive subtype of PTC. The factors that affect survival of patients with TCV remain unclear. We aimed to develop a model to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS). METHODS: A total of 1615 patients diagnosed with TCV between 2004 and 2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomized into training and validation cohorts (7:3). A predictive nomogram for predicting CSS was constructed by Cox proportional hazards regression and validated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA). A risk classification system was built based on the total nomogram scores of each case. RESULTS: A nomogram was constructed including five independent prognostic factors (age, tumor size, T stage, M stage, and extent of surgery) associated with CSS in TCV patients. Various validations proved that the nomogram model had good consistency and discrimination for TCV prognosis. The risk classification system could perfectly classify TCV patients into three risk groups with significantly different CSS. Compared with traditional AJCC TNM staging system, the nomogram could better predict CSS in TCV patients. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram and corresponding risk classification system were developed for predicting CSS in TCV patients. The model has excellent performance and can be used to help clinicians make accurate prognostic assessment and individualized treatment.

Development and validation of a model for the prediction of disease-specific survival in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma: based on random survival forest analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a model for predicting the disease-specific survival (DSS) of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). METHODS: Patients diagnosed with OSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled and randomly divided into development (n = 14,495) and internal validation cohort (n = 9625). Additionally, a cohort from a hospital located in Southeastern China was utilized for external validation (n = 582). RESULTS: TNM stage, adjuvant treatment, surgery, tumor sites, age, grade, and gender were used for RSF model construction based on the development cohort. The effectiveness of the model was confirmed through time-dependent ROC curves in different cohorts. The risk score exhibited an almost exponential increase in the hazard ratio of death due to OSCC. In development, internal, and external validation cohorts, the prognosis was significantly worse for patients in groups with higher risk scores (all log-rank P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Based on RSF, a high-performance prediction model for OSCC prognosis was created and verified in this study.

Differences in Sociodemographic Correlates of Human Papillomavirus-Associated Cancer Survival in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers account for about 9% of the cancer mortality burden in the United States; however, survival differs among sociodemographic factors. We determine sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with HPV-associated cancer survival. METHODS: Data derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 cancer registry were analyzed for a cohort of adult patients diagnosed with a first primary HPV-associated cancer (anal, cervical, oropharyngeal, penile, vaginal, and vulvar cancers), between 2007 and 2015. Multivariable Fine and Gray proportional hazards regression models stratified by anatomic site estimated the association of sociodemographic and clinical variables and cancer-specific survival. RESULTS: A total of 77 774 adults were included (11 216 anal, 27 098 cervical, 30 451 oropharyngeal, 2221 penile, 1176 vaginal, 5612 vulvar; average age = 57.2 years). The most common HPV-associated cancer was cervical carcinoma (58%) for females and oropharyngeal (81%) for male. Among patients diagnosed with anal/rectal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), males had a higher risk of death than females. NonHispanic (NH) blacks had a higher risk of death from anal/rectal SCC, oropharyngeal SCC, and cervical carcinoma; and Hispanics had a higher risk of death from oropharyngeal SCC than NH whites. Marital status was associated with risk of death for all anatomic sites except vulvar. Compared to nonMedicaid insurance, patients with Medicaid and uninsured had higher risk of death from anal/rectal SCC, oropharyngeal SCC, and cervical carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: There exists gender (anal) and racial and insurance (anal, cervical, and oropharyngeal) disparities in relative survival. Concerted efforts are needed to increase and sustain progress made in HPV vaccine uptake among these specific patient subgroups, to reduce cancer incidence.

Survival outcomes of liver transplantation versus liver resection among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A SEER-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: This study aimed to compare the survival benefit in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients following liver transplantation or surgical resection utilizing Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database (2004-2013). METHODS: Overall and cancer-specific mortality were evaluated in HCC patients who were treated by liver resection or transplantation. Patients newly-diagnosed with primary HCC were included. RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier survival curves found that patients with liver transplantation had lower risk of overall mortality and cancer-free mortality than patients who received liver resection (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis found the risk of overall and cancer-specific mortality were lower with liver transplantation than with resection (aHR = 0.51 for overall mortality and aHR = 0.37 for cancer specific mortality), and that the risk of overall mortality decreased for patients with liver transplantation relative to surgical resection as disease severity increased (T1: aHR = 0.53; T2: aHR = 0.47; T3 and T4: aHR = 0.33). CONCLUSION: The findings indicated that transplantation has survival advantages compared with resection in treating patients with HCC, particularly in later stage disease.

Incidence, Survival, and Risk Factors for Adults with Acute Myeloid Leukemia Not Otherwise Specified and Acute Myeloid Leukemia with Recurrent Genetic Abnormalities: Analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database, 2001-2013.

BACKGROUND/AIM: As the knowledgebase of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has grown, classification systems have moved to incorporate these new findings. METHODS: We assessed 32,941 patients with AML whose records are contained in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. RESULTS: Half of all patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2013 did not have a World Health Organization (WHO) classification. Acute promyelocytic leukemia and acute panmyelosis with myelofibrosis were associated with the longest leukemia-specific survival (110 and 115 months, respectively), and AML with minimal differentiation and acute megakaryoblastic leukemia with the shortest (30 and 28 months, respectively). For patients in the WHO groups AML not otherwise specified (AML-NOS) and AML with recurrent genetic abnormalities (AML-RGA), the risk of death was greater for older patients and less for married patients. Black patients with any type of AML-NOS also had a higher risk of death. Patients whose case of AML did not receive a WHO classification were older and this group had a higher risk of death when compared to patients with a WHO type of AML-NOS. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the divergent outcomes of patients with AML and the importance of using the WHO classification system and demographic factors to gauge their prognosis.

The prognostic value of signet ring cell histology in stage I/II colon cancer-a population-based, propensity score-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous research associated signet ring cell histology in colon cancer patients with poor survival outcomes. The aim of this study was to analyze the prognostic significance of signet ring cell histology on overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with localized colon cancer. METHODS: Stage I and II colon cancer patients treated with surgical resection between 2004 and 2015 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models and propensity score methods. RESULTS: Eighty-eight thousand nine hundred fifty-eight stage I-II colon cancer patients were identified. Overall, 446 (0.5%) showed signet ring cell histology. In unadjusted analyses, the 5-year OS and CSS rates of patients with signet ring cell histology were 65.8 and 83.1%, respectively, compared with 74.3 and 88.7% in patients with non-signet ring cell adenocarcinoma (p values: OS, p < 0.001; CSS, p < 0.001). Neither in risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (OS: hazard ratio (HR), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82-1.12%) p = 0.616; CSS: HR, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.79-1.28%) p = 0.946) nor with propensity score matching (OS: HR, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82-1.14%) p = 0.669 and CSS: HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 0.84-1.40%) p = 0.529), a survival disadvantage was found for signet ring cell histology. CONCLUSION: This is the first propensity score-adjusted population-based investigation on exclusively stage I and II colon cancer patients providing compelling evidence that signet ring cell histology does not negatively impact survival in stage I and II colon cancer after risk-adjusting for known prognostic factors. Therefore, standard treatment strategies can be applied in these patients.

Impact of age on survival of locoregional nasopharyngeal carcinoma: An analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database, 2004-2013.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of age at diagnosis and other factors on survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective, population-based cohort study of 3103 patients are selected, whose records were submitted to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2013. We evaluated the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who were 20 years or older with a diagnosis of primary, non-metastatic NPC. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall survival (OS) and risks of OS and NPC-specific survival. RESULTS: Overall survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 85.8%, 71.0%, and 62.6%, respectively. Older age was a significant predictor of poor OS, as was Chinese ethnicity. We also determined that middle-aged white patients, but not middle-aged black or Chinese patients, were at a higher risk of death than were younger patients of the same race/ethnicity. Nodal (N) stage 0-1 disease was a significant predictor of poor OS when comparing survival of older patients with N0-1 vs N2-3 stage disease. Finally, we found that married patients had a decreased risk of death when compared to those who were single. CONCLUSIONS: The survival of older patients with NPC is inferior to that of younger patients. Race/ethnicity, marital status, and stage of disease are important modifiers of risk. Collectively, our results indicate that management of older patients requires optimisation.

Protecting Confidentiality in Cancer Registry Data With Geographic Identifiers.

The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program releases research files of cancer registry data. These files include geographic information at the county level, but no finer. Access to finer geography, such as census tract identifiers, would enable richer analyses-for example, examination of health disparities across neighborhoods. To date, tract identifiers have been left off the research files because they could compromise the confidentiality of patients' identities. We present an approach to inclusion of tract identifiers based on multiply imputed, synthetic data. The idea is to build a predictive model of tract locations, given patient and tumor characteristics, and randomly simulate the tract of each patient by sampling from this model. For the predictive model, we use multivariate regression trees fitted to the latitude and longitude of the population centroid of each tract. We implement the approach in the registry data from California. The method results in synthetic data that reproduce a wide range (but not all) of analyses of census tract socioeconomic cancer disparities and have relatively low disclosure risks, which we assess by comparing individual patients' actual and synthetic tract locations. We conclude with a discussion of how synthetic data sets can be used by researchers with cancer registry data.

Male Breast Cancer as a Second Primary Cancer: Increased Risk Following Lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Male breast cancer (MBC) as a second primary cancer (SPC) has a known association with prior MBC. However, its association with non-breast index malignancies, relative to population risk, has not been previously reported. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (9 catchment area) data, we identified MBCs diagnosed from 1973-2012 as their SPC. Information regarding the index malignancy was also obtained. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of MBC as SPC were estimated, along with incidence rates and trends. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate survival. RESULTS: Over a 38-year period, 464 MBCs were identified as SPC. The most common index malignancies were breast (SIR 30.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 21.50-42.92, p < .001), lymphoma (SIR 1.58, 95% CI 1.08-2.22, p = .014), melanoma (SIR 1.26, 95% CI 0.80-1.89), urinary (SIR 1.05, 95% CI 0.74-1.43), colorectal (SIR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.24), and prostate (SIR 0.93 95% CI 0.81-1.07). Apart from the known association with prior breast cancer, the only significant association was with lymphoma as an index cancer, although not significant with a Bonferroni correction. From 1975-2012, incidence of breast cancer as a first cancer increased at an annual percentage change of 1.3% while breast cancer as a SPC increased at 4.7% (both p values < .001). CONCLUSION: Male breast cancer as a SPC has increased markedly over 4 decades. Men with a history of lymphoma may experience higher-than-expected rates of breast SPC. These observations warrant further research, and suggest possible etiologic connections with disease biology, prior therapy, or genetics. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study reports that men are presenting more frequently to the clinic with breast cancer, both as an initial cancer and as a second cancer following an earlier malignancy. We also report the novel observation that men who survive lymphoma are at increased risk of developing a subsequent breast cancer. Further work is needed to better understand possible treatment or biologic causes of this association. More immediately, these findings suggest the need for heightened vigilance for male breast cancer overall and, in particular, for male lymphoma survivors.

Revisiting a dogma: similar survival of patients with small bowel and gastric GIST. A population-based propensity score SEER analysis.

BACKGROUND: The objective of the present analysis was to assess whether small bowel gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is associated with worse cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) compared with gastric GIST on a population-based level. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on patients aged 18 years or older with histologically proven GIST was extracted from the SEER database from 1998 to 2011. OS and CSS for small bowel GIST were compared with OS and CSS for gastric GIST by application of adjusted and unadjusted Cox regression analyses and propensity score analyses. RESULTS: GIST were located in the stomach (n = 3011, 59 %), duodenum (n = 313, 6 %), jejunum/ileum (n = 1288, 25 %), colon (n = 139, 3 %), rectum (n = 172, 3 %), and extraviscerally (n = 173, 3 %). OS and CSS of patients with GIST in the duodenum [OS, HR 0.95, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.19; CSS, HR 0.99, 95 % CI 0.76-1.29] and in the jejunum/ileum (OS, HR 0.97, 95 % CI 0.85-1.10; CSS, HR = 0.95, 95 % CI 0.81-1.10) were similar to those of patients with gastric GIST in multivariate analyses. Conversely, OS and CSS of patients with GIST in the colon (OS, HR 1.40; 95 % CI 1.07-1.83; CSS, HR 1.89, 95 % CI 1.41-2.54) and in an extravisceral location (OS, HR 1.42, 95 % CI 1.14-1.77; CSS, HR = 1.43, 95 % CI 1.11-1.84) were significantly worse than those of patients with gastric GIST. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to common belief, OS and CSS of patients with small bowel GIST are not statistically different from those of patients with gastric GIST when adjustment is made for confounding variables on a population-based level. The prognosis of patients with nongastric GIST is worse because of a colonic and extravisceral GIST location. These findings have implications regarding adjuvant treatment of GIST patients. Hence, the dogma that small bowel GIST patients have worse prognosis than gastric GIST patients and therefore should receive adjuvant treatment to a greater extent must be revisited.

Modest overall survival improvements from 1998 to 2009 in metastatic gastric cancer patients: a population-based SEER analysis.

BACKGROUND: An increasing fraction of gastric cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. The objective of the present 11-year population-based trend analysis was to assess the survival rates in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. METHODS: Patients with metastatic gastric cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1998 and 2009. Time trend and impact of palliative gastrectomy on survival were assessed by both a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching. RESULTS: We identified 8249 patients with stage IV gastric cancer. The rate of metastatic disease increased from 31.0 % in 1998 to 37.5 % in 2009 (P < 0.001). The palliative gastrectomy rate dropped from 18.8 to 10.2 % (P = 0.004). The median survival for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (N = 1445, 17.4 %) and for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy (N = 6804, 82.4 %) was 7 and 3 months, respectively. There was an increase in median overall survival from 2 months (1998) to 3 months (2009) in the no-gastrectomy group, and from 6.5 to 8 months in the gastrectomy group. The 3-year cancer-specific survival rates were 2.1 % (95 % confidence interval 1.7-2.5 %) for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy and 9.4 % (95 % confidence interval 7.8-11.2 %) for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (P < 0.001). Palliative gastrectomy was associated with an increased cancer-specific survival in propensity-score-adjusted Cox regression analyses (hazard ratio 0.50, 95 % confidence interval 0.46-0.55, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: On a population-based level, only modest improvements in prognosis for metastatic gastric cancer were observed in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. Considering the low rate of midterm survivors in both groups, only a small subgroup of patients benefits from palliative gastrectomy.

Should small papillary thyroid cancer be observed? A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Some centers have advocated selecting patients with small papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) to undergo active surveillance without surgical treatment. The objectives of the current study were to analyze thyroid cancer (TC)-related mortality in a population-based cohort and to determine the impact of small PTCs (defined as tumors ≤ 2 cm in greatest dimension) on TC-related mortality. METHODS: Data on patients with TC of follicular cell origin from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 17 Registries database (1988-2007) were used to analyze the characteristics of PTCs ≤ 2 cm in patients who died from TC-related causes. The effects of clinical features on disease-specific survival were analyzed. RESULTS: Over the 20-year study period, the rate of TC-related mortality was 2.8% (n = 1753 of 61,523 patients). Of the patients who died from TC-related causes, 38% had PTC, 10% had follicular TC, and 31.3% had anaplastic TC. PTCs ≤ 2 cm accounted for 12.3% of TC-related mortalities. Compared with patients who did not experience TC-related mortality from PTCs ≤ 2 cm, there were significantly higher rates of men (30% vs 17%; P < .01), patients aged ≥ 45 years (92% vs 52%; P < .01), tumors measuring >1 cm (59% vs 46%; P < .01), extrathyroid extension (41% vs 11%; P < .01), lymph node metastases (77% vs 28%; P < .01), and distant metastases (31% vs 1%; P < .01) among the patients who died from PTCs ≤ 2 cm. Independent risk factors for death from PTCs ≤ 2 cm included age ≥ 45 years, lymph node and distant metastases, extrathyroid extension, and undergoing less than thyroid lobectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Because 12.3% of patients who experienced TC-related deaths had PTCs ≤ 2 cm despite undergoing thyroidectomy, the current results indicate that nonoperative management for patients who have PTCs ≤ 2 cm should be used with caution. Patients aged ≥ 45 years with PTCs ≤ 2 cm should undergo thyroidectomy.

Thermal ablation matches sublobar resection outcomes in older patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To compare survival outcomes of sublobar resection and thermal ablation for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in older patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: SEER-Medicare linked data for patients with a diagnosis of lung cancer from 2007-2009 were used. Patients ≥ 65 years old with stage IA or IB NSCLC who were treated with sublobar resection or thermal ablation were identified. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and secondary outcome was lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS). Demographic and clinical variables were compared. Unadjusted OS and LCSS curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox model. OS and LCSS curves for propensity score matched groups were also compared. RESULTS: The final unmatched study population comprised 1,897 patients. Patients who underwent sublobar resection were significantly younger (P = .006) and significantly less likely to have a comorbidity index > 1 (P = .036), a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = .017), or adjuvant radiation therapy (P < .0001) compared with patients treated with thermal ablation. Unadjusted survival curves of unmatched groups demonstrated significantly better OS (P = .028) and LCSS (P = .0006) in the resection group. Multivariate Cox model adjusting for demographic and clinical variables found no significant difference in OS between the treatment groups (P = .555); a difference in LCSS (hazard ratio = 1.185, P = .026) persisted. Survival curves for matched groups found no significant difference in OS (P = .695) or LCSS (P = .819) between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for selection bias, this study found no difference in OS between patients treated with sublobar resection and thermal ablation.

Risk of Secondary Malignancies After Pelvic Radiation: A Population-based Analysis.

Background and objective: Radiation therapy has increasingly been used in the management of pelvic malignancies. However, the use of radiation continues to pose a risk of a secondary malignancy to its recipients. This study investigates the risk of secondary malignancy development following radiation for primary pelvic malignancies. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1975 to 2016 was performed. Primary pelvic malignancies were subdivided based on the receipt of radiation, and secondary malignancies were stratified as pelvic or nonpelvic to investigate the local effect of radiation. Key findings and limitations: A total of 2 102 192 patients were analyzed (1 189 108 with prostate, 315 026 with bladder, 88 809 with cervical, 249 535 with uterine, and 259 714 with rectal/anal cancer). The incidence rate (defined as cases per 1000 person years) of any secondary malignancies (including but not limited to secondary pelvic malignancies) was higher in radiation patients than in nonradiation patients (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.04, confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05), with significantly greater rates noted in radiation patients with prostate (IRR 1.22, CI 1.21-1.24), uterine (IRR 1.34), and cervical (IRR 1.80, CI 1.72-1.88) cancer. While the overall incidence rate of any secondary pelvic malignancy was lower in radiation patients (IRR 0.79, CI 0.78-0.81), a greater incidence was still noted in the same cohorts including radiation patients with prostate (IRR 1.42, CI 1.39-1.45), uterine (IRR 1.15, CI 1.08-1.21), and cervical (IRR 1.72, CI 1.59-1.86) cancer. Conclusions and clinical implications: Except for localized cervical cancer, when put in the context of median overall survival, the impact of radiation likely does not carry enough weight to change practice patterns. Radiation for pelvic malignancies increases the risk for several secondary malignancies, and more specifically, secondary pelvic malignancies, but with a relatively low absolute risk of secondary malignancies, the benefits of radiation warrant continued use for most pelvic malignancies. Practice changes should be considered for radiation utilization in malignancies with excellent cancer-specific survival such as cervical cancer. Patient summary: The use of radiation for the management of pelvic malignancies induces a risk of secondary malignancies to its recipients. However, the absolute risk being low, the benefits of radiation warrant its continued use, and a change in practice patterns is unlikely.

The nomogram for the prediction of overall survival after surgery in patients in early-stage NSCLC based on SEER database and external validation cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Currently, there is a lack of effective tools for predicting the prognostic outcome of early-stage lung cancer after surgery. We aim to create a nomogram model to help clinicians assess the risk of postoperative recurrence or metastasis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This work obtained 16,459 NSCLC patients based on SEER database from 2010 to 2015. In addition, we also enrolled 385 NSCLC patients (2017/01-2019/06) into external validation cohort at Tianjin Medical University General Hospital. Univariable as well as multivariable Cox regression was carried out for identifying factors independently predicting OS. In addition, we built a nomogram by incorporating the above prognostic factors for the prediction of OS. RESULTS: Tumor size was positively correlated with the risk of poor differentiation. Advanced age, male and adenocarcinoma patients were factors independently predicting poor prognosis. The risk of white race is higher, followed by Black race, Asians and Indians, which is consistent with previous study. Chemotherapy is negatively related to prognostic outcome in patients of Stage IA NSCLC and positively related to that in those of Stage IB NSCLC. Lymph node dissection can reduce the postoperative mortality of patients. AUCs of the nomograms for 1, 2, and 3-year OS was 0.705, 0.712, and 0.714 for training cohort, while those were 0.684, 0.688, and 0.688 for validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram could be used as a tool to predict the postoperative prognosis of patients with Stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

Recommendations for broadening eligibility criteria in esophagus cancer clinical trials: the mortality disparity of esophagus cancer as a first or second primary malignancy.

Background: Esophagus cancer as a second primary malignancy (esophagus-2) is increasingly common, but its prognosis is poorly understood. This study aims to examine the overall, non-cancer related and cancer-specific survival of patients diagnosed with esophagus-2 compared to the first primary esophagus cancer (esophagus-1). Methods: We included primary esophagus cancer patients diagnosed from 1975 to 2019 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Esophagus-2 was identified in patients with a previous diagnosis of non-esophageal primary malignancy. Hazard ratios of overall, esophagus cancer-specific and non-cancer related mortality were estimated among patients with esophagus-2 compared to esophagus-1, adjusting for age, gender, tumor stage and other demographic and clinical characteristics. Results: A total of 74,521 and 14,820 patients were identified as esophagus-1 and esophagus-2 respectively. Esophagus-2 patients suffered lower risk of esophagus cancer-specific mortality in initial 5 years but with similar risk thereafter, independent of tumor characteristics and treatment. In the first 5 years after diagnosis, patients with esophagus-2 had similar risk of overall mortality with those with esophagus-1 but increased risk thereafter. As for non-cancer related mortality, esophagus-2 patients had higher risk all along. Conclusions: Esophagus-2 patients should not be entirely excluded from clinical trial and a 3-year exclusion window is suggested. A conservative approach to manage esophagus-2 solely based on malignancy history is not supported but effort should be put into surveillance, prevention and management of the comorbidities and complications for the first malignancy.

Risk stratification in gastric cancer lung metastasis: Utilizing an overall survival nomogram and comparing it with previous staging.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) is prevalent and aggressive, especially when patients have distant lung metastases, which often places patients into advanced stages. By identifying prognostic variables for lung metastasis in GC patients, it may be possible to construct a good prediction model for both overall survival (OS) and the cumulative incidence prediction (CIP) plot of the tumour. AIM: To investigate the predictors of GC with lung metastasis (GCLM) to produce nomograms for OS and generate CIP by using cancer-specific survival (CSS) data. METHODS: Data from January 2000 to December 2020 involving 1652 patients with GCLM were obtained from the Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program database. The major observational endpoint was OS; hence, patients were separated into training and validation groups. Correlation analysis determined various connections. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses validated the independent predictive factors. Nomogram distinction and calibration were performed with the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curves. To evaluate the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the nomograms, decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. The clinical utility of the novel prognostic model was compared to that of the 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system by utilizing Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). Finally, the OS prognostic model and Cox-AJCC risk stratification model modified for the AJCC system were compared. RESULTS: For the purpose of creating the OS nomogram, a CIP plot based on CSS was generated. Cox multivariate regression analysis identified eleven significant prognostic factors (P < 0.05) related to liver metastasis, bone metastasis, primary site, surgery, regional surgery, treatment sequence, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, positive lymph node count, N staging, and time from diagnosis to treatment. It was clear from the DCA (net benefit > 0), time-dependent ROC curve (training/validation set AUC > 0.7), and calibration curve (reliability slope closer to 45 degrees) results that the OS nomogram demonstrated a high level of predictive efficiency. The OS prediction model (New Model AUC = 0.83) also performed much better than the old Cox-AJCC model (AUC difference between the new model and the old model greater than 0) in terms of risk stratification (P < 0.0001) and verification using the IDI and NRI. CONCLUSION: The OS nomogram for GCLM successfully predicts 1- and 3-year OS. Moreover, this approach can help to appropriately classify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups, thereby guiding treatment.

Machine learning was used to predict risk factors for distant metastasis of pancreatic cancer and prognosis analysis.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms of distant metastasis in pancreatic cancer (PC) have not been elucidated, and this study aimed to explore the risk factors affecting the metastasis and prognosis of metastatic patients and to develop a predictive model. METHOD: Clinical data from patients meeting criteria from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and two machine learning methods, random forest and support vector machine, combined with logistic regression, were used to explore risk factors influencing distant metastasis and to create nomograms. The performance of the model was validated using calibration curves and ROC curves based on the Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital cohort. LASSO regression and Cox regression models were used to explore the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with distant PC metastases. RESULTS: We found that independent risk factors affecting PC distant metastasis were: age, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, T and N; the independent risk factors for patient prognosis were: age, grade, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Together, our study provides a method for risk factors and prognostic assessment for patients with distant PC metastases. The nomogram we developed can be used as a convenient individualized tool to facilitate aid in clinical decision making.

The prognostic value of the number of metastatic lymph nodes on the long-term survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma using the SEER database.

Background: In the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer, the nodal staging of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is classified as N0 and N1 in accordance with lymph node (LN) metastases. Recently, several studies have reported that the number of metastatic LNs is associated with prognosis in patients with ICC. However, the majority of these studies were published in Eastern countries, and there are few available data for Western countries. This study aimed to investigate the association between metastatic LN number and prognosis in ICC patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: Data from 658 ICC patients in the SEER database who underwent hepatectomy with LN dissection from 2000 to 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Hazard ratios (HRs) according to increasing numbers of metastatic LN were calculated. The patients were then divided into three groups according to their metastatic LN numbers (N0: no metastatic LNs; N+ <4: 1-3 metastatic LNs; N+ ≥4: ≥4 metastatic LNs), and cause-specific survival (CSS) was compared. Results: Metastatic LN number was a prognostic factor of oncologic survival [CSS: HR =1.300; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.225-1.379; P<0.001]. In survival analysis, an increasing number of metastatic LNs was significantly correlated with poorer oncologic outcomes [CSS: N0 vs. N+ <4 vs. N+ ≥4: 40.856 (95% CI: 38.806-42.919) vs. 22.000 (95% CI: 18.283-25.717) vs. 15.000 (95% CI: 11.520-18.480) months, P<0.001]. In post hoc analysis, a significant difference was found between adjacent groups (N0 vs. N+ <4, P<0.001; N+ <4 vs. N+ ≥4, P=0.004). Conclusions: Patients with ICC in the SEER database were reaffirmed to have worse prognosis with an increasing number of metastatic LNs.