Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity.

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)-key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO[Formula: see text] forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.

The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

Real-time emulation of future global warming reveals realistic impacts on the phenological response and quality deterioration in rice.

Decreased production of crops due to climate change has been predicted scientifically. While climate-resilient crops are necessary to ensure food security and support sustainable agriculture, predicting crop growth under future global warming is challenging. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of realistic global warming conditions on rice cultivation. We developed a crop evaluation platform, the agro-environment (AE) emulator, which generates diverse environments by implementing the complexity of natural environmental fluctuations in customized, fully artificial lighting growth chambers. We confirmed that the environmental responsiveness of rice obtained in the fluctuation of artificial environments is similar to those exhibited in natural environments by validating our AE emulator using publicly available meteorological data from multiple years at the same location and multiple locations in the same year. Based on the representative concentration pathway, real-time emulation of severe global warming unveiled dramatic advances in the rice life cycle, accompanied by a 35% decrease in grain yield and an 85% increase in quality deterioration, which is higher than the recently reported projections. The transcriptome dynamism showed that increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations synergistically changed the expression of various genes and strengthened the induction of flowering, heat stress adaptation, and CO2 response genes. The predicted severe global warming greatly alters rice environmental adaptability and negatively impacts rice production. Our findings offer innovative applications of artificial environments and insights for enhancing varietal potential and cultivation methods in the future.

An evolutionary innovation for mating facilitates ecological niche expansion and buffers species against climate change.

One of the drivers of life's diversification has been the emergence of "evolutionary innovations": The evolution of traits that grant access to underused ecological niches. Since ecological interactions can occur separately from mating, mating-related traits have not traditionally been considered factors in niche evolution. However, in order to persist in their environment, animals need to successfully mate just as much as they need to survive. Innovations that facilitate mating activity may therefore be an overlooked determinant of species' ecological limits. Here, we show that species' historical niches and responses to contemporary climate change are shaped by an innovation involved in mating-a waxy, ultra-violet-reflective pruinescence produced by male dragonflies. Physiological experiments in two species demonstrate that pruinescence reduces heating and water loss. Phylogenetic analyses show that pruinescence is gained after taxa begin adopting a thermohydrically stressful mating behavior. Further comparative analyses reveal that pruinose species are more likely to breed in exposed, open-canopy microhabitats. Biogeographic analyses uncover that pruinose species occupy warmer and drier regions in North America. Citizen-science observations of Pachydiplax longipennis suggest that the extent of pruinescence can be optimized to match the local conditions. Finally, temporal analyses indicate that pruinose species have been buffered against contemporary climate change. Overall, these historical and contemporary patterns show that successful mating can shape species' niche limits in the same way as growth and survival.

Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming.

The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.

Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming.

Permafrost regions contain approximately half of the carbon stored in land ecosystems and have warmed at least twice as much as any other biome. This warming has influenced vegetation activity, leading to changes in plant composition, physiology, and biomass storage in aboveground and belowground components, ultimately impacting ecosystem carbon balance. Yet, little is known about the causes and magnitude of long-term changes in the above- to belowground biomass ratio of plants (η). Here, we analyzed η values using 3,013 plots and 26,337 species-specific measurements across eight sites on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2021. Our analysis revealed distinct temporal trends in η for three vegetation types: a 17% increase in alpine wetlands, and a decrease of 26% and 48% in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, respectively. These trends were primarily driven by temperature-induced growth preferences rather than shifts in plant species composition. Our findings indicate that in wetter ecosystems, climate warming promotes aboveground plant growth, while in drier ecosystems, such as alpine meadows and alpine steppes, plants allocate more biomass belowground. Furthermore, we observed a threefold strengthening of the warming effect on η over the past 27 y. Soil moisture was found to modulate the sensitivity of η to soil temperature in alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but not in alpine wetlands. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the processes driving the response of biomass distribution to climate warming, which is crucial for predicting the future carbon trajectory of permafrost ecosystems and climate feedback.

Divergent bleaching and recovery trajectories in reef-building corals following a decade of successive marine heatwaves.

Increasingly frequent marine heatwaves are devastating coral reefs. Corals that survive these extreme events must rapidly recover if they are to withstand subsequent events, and long-term survival in the face of rising ocean temperatures may hinge on recovery capacity and acclimatory gains in heat tolerance over an individual's lifespan. To better understand coral recovery trajectories in the face of successive marine heatwaves, we monitored the responses of bleaching-susceptible and bleaching-resistant individuals of two dominant coral species in Hawai'i, Montipora capitata and Porites compressa, over a decade that included three marine heatwaves. Bleaching-susceptible colonies of P. compressa exhibited beneficial acclimatization to heat stress (i.e., less bleaching) following repeat heatwaves, becoming indistinguishable from bleaching-resistant conspecifics during the third heatwave. In contrast, bleaching-susceptible M. capitata repeatedly bleached during all successive heatwaves and exhibited seasonal bleaching and substantial mortality for up to 3 y following the third heatwave. Encouragingly, bleaching-resistant individuals of both species remained pigmented across the entire time series; however, pigmentation did not necessarily indicate physiological resilience. Specifically, M. capitata displayed incremental yet only partial recovery of symbiont density and tissue biomass across both bleaching phenotypes up to 35 mo following the third heatwave as well as considerable partial mortality. Conversely, P. compressa appeared to recover across most physiological metrics within 2 y and experienced little to no mortality. Ultimately, these results indicate that even some visually robust, bleaching-resistant corals can carry the cost of recurring heatwaves over multiple years, leading to divergent recovery trajectories that may erode coral reef resilience in the Anthropocene.

The adaptive mechanisms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii to long-term high CO2 and warming.

While it is known that increased dissolved CO2 concentrations and rising sea surface temperature (ocean warming) can act interactively on marine phytoplankton, the ultimate molecular mechanisms underlying this interaction on a long-term evolutionary scale are relatively unexplored. Here, we performed transcriptomics and quantitative metabolomics analyses, along with a physiological trait analysis, on the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii adapted for approximately 3.5 years to warming and/or high CO2 conditions. We show that long-term warming has more pronounced impacts than elevated CO2 on gene expression, resulting in a greater number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The largest number of DEGs was observed in populations adapted to warming + high CO2, indicating a potential synergistic interaction between these factors. We further identified the metabolic pathways in which the DEGs function and the metabolites with significantly changed abundances. We found that ribosome biosynthesis-related pathways were upregulated to meet the increased material and energy demands after warming or warming in combination with high CO2. This resulted in the upregulation of energy metabolism pathways such as glycolysis, photorespiration, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, as well as the associated metabolites. These metabolic changes help compensate for reduced photochemical efficiency and photosynthesis. Our study emphasizes that the upregulation of ribosome biosynthesis plays an essential role in facilitating the adaptation of phytoplankton to global ocean changes and elucidates the interactive effects of warming and high CO2 on the adaptation of marine phytoplankton in the context of global change.

Environmental complexity mitigates the demographic impact of sexual selection.

Sexual selection and the evolution of costly mating strategies can negatively impact population viability and adaptive potential. While laboratory studies have documented outcomes stemming from these processes, recent observations suggest that the demographic impact of sexual selection is contingent on the environment and therefore may have been overestimated in simple laboratory settings. Here we find support for this claim. We exposed copies of beetle populations, previously evolved with or without sexual selection, to a 10-generation heatwave while maintaining half of them in a simple environment and the other half in a complex environment. Populations with an evolutionary history of sexual selection maintained larger sizes and more stable growth rates in complex (relative to simple) environments, an effect not seen in populations evolved without sexual selection. These results have implications for evolutionary forecasting and suggest that the negative demographic impact of sexually selected mating strategies might be low in natural populations.

Infectious Diseases and Clinical Xenotransplantation.

Xenotransplantation, transplantation into humans of vascularized organs or viable cells from nonhuman species, is a potential solution to shortages of transplantable human organs. Among challenges to application of clinical xenotransplantation are unknown risks of transmission of animal microbes to immunosuppressed recipients or the community. Experience in allotransplantation and in preclinical models suggests that viral infections are the greatest concern. Worldwide, the distribution of swine pathogens is heterogeneous and cannot be fully controlled by international agricultural regulations. It is possible to screen source animals for potential human pathogens before procuring organs in a manner not possible within the time available for surveillance testing in allotransplantation. Infection control measures require microbiological assays for surveillance of source animals and xenograft recipients and research into zoonotic potential of porcine organisms. Available data suggest that infectious risks of xenotransplantation are manageable and that clinical trials can advance with appropriate protocols for microbiological monitoring of source animals and recipients.

Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot).

BACKGROUND: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). RESULTS: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot.

Graphene Derived from Municipal Solid Waste.

Landfilling is long the most common method of disposal for municipal solid waste (MSW). However, many countries seek to implement different methods of MSW treatment due to the high global warming potential associated with landfilling. Other methods such as recycling and incineration are either limited to only a fraction of generated MSW or still produce large greenhouse gas emissions, thereby providing an unsustainable disposal method. Here, the production of graphene from treated MSW is reported that including treated wood waste, using flash Joule heating. Results indicated a 71%-83% reduction in global warming potential compared to traditional disposal methods at a net cost of -$282 of MSW, presuming the graphene is sold at just 5% of its current market value to offset the cost of the flash Joule heating process.

Multi-trait diversification in marine diatoms in constant and warmed environments.

Phytoplankton are photosynthetic marine microbes that affect food webs, nutrient cycles and climate regulation. Their roles are determined by correlated phytoplankton functional traits including cell size, chlorophyll content and cellular composition. Here, we explore patterns of evolution in interrelated trait values and correlations. Because both chance events and natural selection contribute to phytoplankton trait evolution, we used population bottlenecks to diversify six genotypes of Thalassiosirid diatoms. We then evolved them as large populations in two environments. Interspecific variation and within-species evolution were visualized for nine traits and their correlations using reduced axes (a trait-scape). Our main findings are that shifts in trait values resulted in movement of evolving populations within the trait-scape in both environments, but were more frequent when large populations evolved in a novel environment. Which trait relationships evolved was population-specific, but greater departures from ancestral trait correlations were associated with lower population growth rates. There was no single master trait that could be used to understand multi-trait evolution. Instead, repeatable multi-trait evolution occurred along a major axis of variation defined by several diatom traits and trait relationships. Because trait-scapes capture changes in trait relationships and values together, they offer an insightful way to study multi-trait variation.

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Cold adaptation does not handicap warm tolerance in the most abundant Arctic seabird.

Arctic birds and mammals are physiologically adapted to survive in cold environments but live in the fastest warming region on the planet. They should therefore be most threatened by climate change. We fitted a phylogenetic model of upper critical temperature (TUC) in 255 bird species and determined that TUC for dovekies (Alle alle; 22.4°C)-the most abundant seabird in the Arctic-is 8.8°C lower than predicted for a bird of its body mass (150 g) and habitat latitude. We combined our comparative analysis with in situ physiological measurements on 36 dovekies from East Greenland and forward-projections of dovekie energy and water expenditure under different climate scenarios. Based on our analyses, we demonstrate that cold adaptation in this small Arctic seabird does not handicap acute tolerance to air temperatures up to at least 15°C above their current maximum. We predict that climate warming will reduce the energetic costs of thermoregulation for dovekies, but their capacity to cope with rising temperatures will be constrained by water intake and salt balance. Dovekies evolved 15 million years ago, and their thermoregulatory physiology might also reflect adaptation to a wide range of palaeoclimates, both substantially warmer and colder than the present day.

Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification.

Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7-26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.

Multi-decadal warming alters predator's effect on prey community composition.

Predator responses to warming can occur via phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation or a combination of both, changing their top-down effects on prey communities. However, we lack evidence of how warming-induced evolutionary changes in predators may influence natural food webs. Here, we ask whether wild fish subject to warming across multiple generations differ in their impacts on prey communities compared with their nearby conspecifics experiencing a natural thermal regime. We carried out a common garden mesocosm experiment with larval perch (Perca fluviatilis), originating from a heated or reference coastal environment, feeding on zooplankton communities under a gradient of experimental temperatures. Overall, in the presence of fish of heated origin, zooplankton abundance was higher and did not change with experimental warming, whereas in the presence of fish of unheated origin, it declined with experimental temperature. Responses in zooplankton taxonomic and size composition suggest that larvae of heated origin consume more large-sized taxa as the temperature increases. Our findings show that differences between fish populations, potentially representing adaptation to their long-term thermal environments, can affect the abundance, biomass, size and species composition of their prey communities. This suggests that rapid microevolution in predators to ongoing climate warming might have indirect cross-generational ecological consequences propagating through food webs.

Soil fungal community has higher network stability than bacterial community in response to warming and nitrogen addition in a subtropical primary forest.

Global change factors are known to strongly affect soil microbial community function and composition. However, as of yet, the effects of warming and increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on soil microbial network complexity and stability are still unclear. Here, we examined the effects of experimental warming (3°C above ambient soil temperature) and nitrogen addition (5 g N m-2 year-1) on the complexity and stability of the soil microbial network in a subtropical primary forest. Compared to the control, warming increased |negative cohesion|:positive cohesion by 7% and decreased network vulnerability by 5%; nitrogen addition decreased |negative cohesion|:positive cohesion by 10% and increased network vulnerability by 11%. Warming and decreased soil moisture acted as strong filtering factors that led to higher bacterial network stability. Nitrogen addition reduced bacterial network stability by inhibiting soil respiration and increasing resource availability. Neither warming nor nitrogen addition changed fungal network complexity and stability. These findings suggest that the fungal community is more tolerant than the bacterial community to climate warming and nitrogen addition. The link between bacterial network stability and microbial community functional potential was significantly impacted by nitrogen addition and warming, while the response of soil microbial network stability to climate warming and nitrogen deposition may be independent of its complexity. Our findings demonstrate that changes in microbial network structure are crucial to ecosystem management and to predict the ecological consequences of global change in the future. IMPORTANCE: Soil microbes play a very important role in maintaining the function and health of forest ecosystems. Unfortunately, global change factors are profoundly affecting soil microbial structure and function. In this study, we found that climate warming promoted bacterial network stability and nitrogen deposition decreased bacterial network stability. Changes in bacterial network stability had strong effects on bacterial community functional potentials linked to metabolism, nitrogen cycling, and carbon cycling, which would change the biogeochemical cycle in primary forests.

The prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbiome of Pacific oyster spat is shaped by ocean warming but not acidification.

Pacific oysters (Magallana gigas, a.k.a. Crassostrea gigas), the most widely farmed oysters, are under threat from climate change and emerging pathogens. In part, their resilience may be affected by their microbiome, which, in turn, may be influenced by ocean warming and acidification. To understand these impacts, we exposed early-development Pacific oyster spat to different temperatures (18°C and 24°C) and pCO2 levels (800, 1,600, and 2,800 µatm) in a fully crossed design for 3 weeks. Under all conditions, the microbiome changed over time, with a large decrease in the relative abundance of potentially pathogenic ciliates (Uronema marinum) in all treatments with time. The microbiome composition differed significantly with temperature, but not acidification, indicating that Pacific oyster spat microbiomes can be altered by ocean warming but is resilient to ocean acidification in our experiments. Microbial taxa differed in relative abundance with temperature, implying different adaptive strategies and ecological specializations among microorganisms. Additionally, a small proportion (~0.2% of the total taxa) of the relatively abundant microbial taxa were core constituents (>50% occurrence among samples) across different temperatures, pCO2 levels, or time. Some taxa, including A4b bacteria and members of the family Saprospiraceae in the phyla Chloroflexi (syn. Chloroflexota) and Bacteroidetes (syn. Bacteroidota), respectively, as well as protists in the genera Labyrinthula and Aplanochytrium in the class Labyrinthulomycetes, and Pseudoperkinsus tapetis in the class Ichthyosporea were core constituents across temperatures, pCO2 levels, and time, suggesting that they play an important, albeit unknown, role in maintaining the structural and functional stability of the Pacific oyster spat microbiome in response to ocean warming and acidification. These findings highlight the flexibility of the spat microbiome to environmental changes.IMPORTANCEPacific oysters are the most economically important and widely farmed species of oyster, and their production depends on healthy oyster spat. In turn, spat health and productivity are affected by the associated microbiota; yet, studies have not scrutinized the effects of temperature and pCO2 on the prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbiomes of spat. Here, we show that both the prokaryotic and, for the first time, eukaryotic microbiome of Pacific oyster spat are surprisingly resilient to changes in acidification, but sensitive to ocean warming. The findings have potential implications for oyster survival amid climate change and underscore the need to understand temperature and pCO2 effects on the microbiome and the cascading effects on oyster health and productivity.

Shifts in mycorrhizal types of fungi and plants in response to fertilisation, warming and herbivory in a tundra grassland.

Climate warming is severely affecting high-latitude regions. In the Arctic tundra, it may lead to enhanced soil nutrient availability and interact with simultaneous changes in grazing pressure. It is presently unknown how these concurrently occurring global change drivers affect the root-associated fungal communities, particularly mycorrhizal fungi, and whether changes coincide with shifts in plant mycorrhizal types. We investigated changes in root-associated fungal communities and mycorrhizal types of the plant community in a 10-yr factorial experiment with warming, fertilisation and grazing exclusion in a Finnish tundra grassland. The strongest determinant of the root-associated fungal community was fertilisation, which consistently increased potential plant pathogen abundance and had contrasting effects on the different mycorrhizal fungal types, contingent on other treatments. Plant mycorrhizal types went through pronounced shifts, with warming favouring ecto- and ericoid mycorrhiza but not under fertilisation and grazing exclusion. Combination of all treatments resulted in dominance by arbuscular mycorrhizal plants. However, shifts in plant mycorrhizal types vs fungi were mostly but not always aligned in their magnitude and direction. Our results show that our ability to predict shifts in symbiotic and antagonistic fungal communities depend on simultaneous consideration of multiple global change factors that jointly alter plant and fungal communities.