Community assembly influences plant trait economic spectra and functional trade-offs at ecosystem scales.

Plant functional traits hold the potential to greatly improve the understanding and prediction of climate impacts on ecosystems and carbon cycle feedback to climate change. Traits are commonly used to place species along a global conservative-acquisitive trade-off, yet how and if functional traits and conservative-acquisitive trade-offs scale up to mediate community and ecosystem fluxes is largely unknown. Here, we combine functional trait datasets and multibiome datasets of forest water and carbon fluxes at the species, community, and ecosystem-levels to quantify the scaling of the tradeoff between maximum flux and sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. We find a strong conservative-acquisitive trade-off at the species scale, which weakens modestly at the community scale and largely disappears at the ecosystem scale. Functional traits, particularly plant water transport (hydraulic) traits, are strongly associated with the key dimensions of the conservative-acquisitive trade-off at community and ecosystem scales, highlighting that trait composition appears to influence community and ecosystem flux dynamics. Our findings provide a foundation for improving carbon cycle models by revealing i) that plant hydraulic traits are most strongly associated with community- and ecosystem scale flux dynamics and ii) community assembly dynamics likely need to be considered explicitly, as they give rise to ecosystem-level flux dynamics that differ substantially from trade-offs identified at the species-level.

Spatial variation in avian bill size is associated with temperature extremes in a major radiation of Australian passerines.

Morphology is integral to body temperature regulation. Recent advances in understanding of thermal physiology suggest a role of the avian bill in thermoregulation. To explore the adaptive significance of bill size for thermoregulation we characterized relationships between bill size and climate extremes. Most previous studies focused on climate means, ignoring frequencies of extremes, and do not reflect thermoregulatory costs experienced over shorter time scales. Using 79 species (9847 museum specimens), we explore how bill size variation is associated with temperature extremes in a large and diverse radiation of Australasian birds, Meliphagides, testing a series of predictions. Overall, across the continent, bill size variation was associated with both climate extremes and means and was most strongly associated with winter temperatures; associations at the level of climate zones differed from continent-wide associations and were complex, yet consistent with physiology and a thermoregulatory role for avian bills. Responses to high summer temperatures were nonlinear suggesting they may be difficult to detect in large-scale continental analyses using previous methodologies. We provide strong evidence that climate extremes have contributed to the evolution of bill morphology in relation to thermoregulation and show the importance of including extremes to understand fine-scale trait variation across space.

Nitrogen deposition differentially regulates the sensitivity of gross primary productivity to extreme drought versus wetness.

Global hydroclimatic variability is increasing with more frequent extreme dry and wet years, severely destabilizing terrestrial ecosystem productivity. However, what regulates the consequence of precipitation extremes on productivity remains unclear. Based on a 9-year field manipulation experiment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we found that the responses of gross primary productivity (GPP) to extreme drought and wetness were differentially regulated by nitrogen (N) deposition. Over increasing N deposition, extreme dry events reduced GPP more. Among the 12 biotic and abiotic factors examined, this was mostly explained by the increased plant canopy height and proportion of drought-sensitive species under N deposition, making photosynthesis more sensitive to hydraulic stress. While extreme wet events increased GPP, their effect did not shift over N deposition. These site observations were complemented by a global synthesis derived from the GOSIF GPP dataset, which showed that GPP sensitivity to extreme drought was larger in ecosystems with higher N deposition, but GPP sensitivity to extreme wetness did not change with N deposition. Our findings indicate that intensified hydroclimatic variability would lead to a greater loss of land carbon sinks in the context of increasing N deposition, due to that GPP losses during extreme dry years are more pronounced, yet without a synchronous increase in GPP gains during extreme wet years. The study implies that the conservation and management against climate extremes merit particular attention in ecosystems subject to N deposition.

Plant diversity and community age stabilize ecosystem multifunctionality.

It is well known that biodiversity positively affects ecosystem functioning, leading to enhanced ecosystem stability. However, this knowledge is mainly based on analyses using single ecosystem functions, while studies focusing on the stability of ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF) are rare. Taking advantage of a long-term grassland biodiversity experiment, we studied the effect of plant diversity (1-60 species) on EMF over 5 years, its temporal stability, as well as multifunctional resistance and resilience to a 2-year drought event. Using split-plot treatments, we further tested whether a shared history of plants and soil influences the studied relationships. We calculated EMF based on functions related to plants and higher-trophic levels. Plant diversity enhanced EMF in all studied years, and this effect strengthened over the study period. Moreover, plant diversity increased the temporal stability of EMF and fostered resistance to reoccurring drought events. Old plant communities with shared plant and soil history showed a stronger plant diversity-multifunctionality relationship and higher temporal stability of EMF than younger communities without shared histories. Our results highlight the importance of old and biodiverse plant communities for EMF and its stability to extreme climate events in a world increasingly threatened by global change.

Unveiling the landscape predictors of resilient vegetation in coastal wetlands to inform conservation in the face of climate extremes.

Unveiling spatial variation in vegetation resilience to climate extremes can inform effective conservation planning under climate change. Although many conservation efforts are implemented on landscape scales, they often remain blind to landscape variation in vegetation resilience. We explored the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation (i.e., vegetation that could withstand and quickly recover from drought) and its predictors across a heterogeneous coastal landscape under long-term wetland conversion, through a series of high-resolution satellite image interpretations, spatial analyses, and nonlinear modelling. We found that vegetation varied greatly in drought resilience across the coastal wetland landscape and that drought-resilient vegetation could be predicted with distances to coastline and tidal channel. Specifically, drought-resilient vegetation exhibited a nearly bimodal distribution and had a seaward optimum at ~2 km from coastline (corresponding to an inundation frequency of ~30%), a pattern particularly pronounced in areas further away from tidal channels. Furthermore, we found that areas with drought-resilient vegetation were more likely to be eliminated by wetland conversion. Even in protected areas where wetland conversion was slowed, drought-resilient vegetation was increasingly lost to wetland conversion at its landward optimum in combination with rapid plant invasions at its seaward optimum. Our study highlights that the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation can be predicted using landscape features but without incorporating this predictive understanding, conservation efforts may risk failing in the face of climate extremes.

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds.

Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface.

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

Sub-zero temperatures and large-scale weather patterns induce tooth damage in Icelandic arctic foxes.

Tooth damage in carnivores can reflect shifts in both diet and feeding habits, and in large carnivores, it is associated with increased bone consumption. Variation in tooth condition in Icelandic arctic foxes, a mesocarnivore, was recorded from 854 individual foxes spanning 29 years. We hypothesized that annual climatic variations, which can influence food abundance and accessibility, will influence tooth condition by causing dietary shifts toward less edible prey. We examined tooth condition in relation to four climatic predictors: mean annual winter temperature, indices of both the El Niño anomaly and North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the number of rain-on-snow days (ROS). We found unequivocal evidence for a strong effect of annual climate on tooth condition. Teeth of Icelandic foxes were in better condition when winter temperatures were higher, when the SPG was more positive, and when the number of ROS was low. We also found a substantial subregional effect with foxes from northeastern Iceland having lower tooth damage than those from two western sites. Contradicting our original hypothesis that foxes from northeastern Iceland, where foxes are known to scavenge on large mammal remains (e.g., sheep and horses), would show the highest tooth damage, we suggest that western coastal sites exhibited greater tooth damage because cold winter temperatures lowered the availability of seabirds, causing a shift in diet toward abrasive marine subsidies (e.g., bivalves) and frozen beach wrack. Our study shows that monitoring tooth breakage and wear can be a useful tool for evaluating the impact of climate on carnivore populations and that climate change may influence the condition and fitness of carnivores in complex and potentially conflicting ways.

Deeper topsoils enhance ecosystem productivity and climate resilience in arid regions, but not in humid regions.

Understanding the controlling mechanisms of soil properties on ecosystem productivity is essential for sustaining productivity and increasing resilience under a changing climate. Here we investigate the control of topsoil depth (e.g., A horizons) on long-term ecosystem productivity. We used nationwide observations (n = 2401) of topsoil depth and multiple scaled datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) for five ecosystems (cropland, forest, grassland, pasture, shrubland) over 36 years (1986-2021) across the conterminous USA. The relationship between topsoil depth and GPP is primarily associated with water availability, which is particularly significant in arid regions under grassland, shrubland, and cropland (r = .37, .32, .15, respectively, p < .0001). For every 10 cm increase in topsoil depth, the GPP increased by 114 to 128 g C m-2 year-1 in arid regions (r = .33 and .45, p < .0001). Paired comparison of relatively shallow and deep topsoils while holding other variables (climate, vegetation, parent material, soil type) constant showed that the positive control of topsoil depth on GPP occurred primarily in cropland (0.73, confidence interval of 0.57-0.84) and shrubland (0.75, confidence interval of 0.40-0.94). The GPP difference between deep and shallow topsoils was small and not statistically significant. Despite the positive control of topsoil depth on productivity in arid regions, its contribution (coefficients: .09-.33) was similar to that of heat (coefficients: .06-.39) but less than that of water (coefficients: .07-.87). The resilience of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes varied in different ecosystems and climatic regions. Deeper topsoils increased stability and decreased the variability of GPP under climate extremes in most ecosystems, especially in shrubland and grassland. The conservation of topsoil in arid regions and improvements of soil depth representation and moisture-retention mechanisms are critical for carbon-sequestration ecosystem services under a changing climate. These findings and relationships should also be included in Earth system models.

Immediate and carry-over effects of late-spring frost and growing season drought on forest gross primary productivity capacity in the Northern Hemisphere.

Forests are increasingly exposed to extreme global warming-induced climatic events. However, the immediate and carry-over effects of extreme events on forests are still poorly understood. Gross primary productivity (GPP) capacity is regarded as a good proxy of the ecosystem's functional stability, reflecting its physiological response to its surroundings. Using eddy covariance data from 34 forest sites in the Northern Hemisphere, we analyzed the immediate and carry-over effects of late-spring frost (LSF) and growing season drought on needle-leaf and broadleaf forests. Path analysis was applied to reveal the plausible reasons behind the varied responses of forests to extreme events. The results show that LSF had clear immediate effects on the GPP capacity of both needle-leaf and broadleaf forests. However, GPP capacity in needle-leaf forests was more sensitive to drought than in broadleaf forests. There was no interaction between LSF and drought in either needle-leaf or broadleaf forests. Drought effects were still visible when LSF and drought coexisted in needle-leaf forests. Path analysis further showed that the response of GPP capacity to drought differed between needle-leaf and broadleaf forests, mainly due to the difference in the sensitivity of canopy conductance. Moreover, LSF had a more severe and long-lasting carry-over effect on forests than drought. These results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of forest response to extreme events across forest types.

Climate change threats to the global functional diversity of freshwater fish.

Climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity show strong spatial variability, highlighting the importance of a global perspective. While previous studies on biodiversity mostly focused on species richness, functional diversity, which is a better predictor of ecosystem functioning, has received much less attention. This study aims to comprehensively assess climate change threats to the functional diversity of freshwater fish across the world, considering three complementary metrics-functional richness, evenness and divergence. We built on existing spatially explicit projections of geographical ranges for 11,425 riverine fish species as affected by changes in streamflow and water temperature extremes at four warming levels (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.2°C and 4.5°C). To estimate functional diversity, we considered the following four continuous, morphological and physiological traits: relative head length, relative body depth, trophic level and relative growth rate. Together, these traits cover five ecological functions. We treated missing trait values in two different ways: we either removed species with missing trait values or imputed them. Depending on the warming level, 6%-25% of the locations globally face a complete loss of functional diversity when assuming no dispersal (6%-17% when assuming maximal dispersal), with hotspots in the Amazon and Paraná River basins. The three facets of functional diversity do not always follow the same pattern. Sometimes, functional richness is not yet affected despite species loss, while functional evenness and divergence are already reducing. Other times, functional richness reduces, while functional evenness and/or divergence increase instead. The contrasting patterns of the three facets of functional diversity show their complementarity among each other and their added value compared to species richness. With increasing climate change, impacts on freshwater communities accelerate, making early mitigation critically important.

Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review.

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected and recognized consequences of climate change. Prediction of water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since water quality is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The evidence linking the influence of hydro-meteorological factors on water quality provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in water quality modeling and evaluations of climate change's impact on water quality, climate extreme informed water quality modeling methodologies remain restricted. This review aims to summarize the causal mechanisms across climate extremes considering water quality parameters and Asian water quality modeling methods associated with climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches to water quality modeling and prediction in the context of flood and drought assessment, (2) discuss the challenges and impediments, and (3) propose potential solutions to these challenges to improve understanding of the impact of climate extremes on water quality and mitigate their negative impacts. This study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems is by comprehending the connections between climate extreme events and water quality through collective efforts. The connections between the climate indices and water quality indicators were demonstrated to better understand the link between climate extremes and water quality for a selected watershed basin.

Increasing risk of another Cape Town "Day Zero" drought in the 21st century.

Three consecutive dry winters (2015-2017) in southwestern South Africa (SSA) resulted in the Cape Town "Day Zero" drought in early 2018. The contribution of anthropogenic global warming to this prolonged rainfall deficit has previously been evaluated through observations and climate models. However, model adequacy and insufficient horizontal resolution make it difficult to precisely quantify the changing likelihood of extreme droughts, given the small regional scale. Here, we use a high-resolution large ensemble to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the probability of occurrence of multiyear SSA rainfall deficits in past and future decades. We find that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of the 2015-2017 rainfall deficit by a factor of five to six. The probability of such an event will increase from 0.7 to 25% by the year 2100 under an intermediate-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 [SSP2-4.5]) and to 80% under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). These results highlight the strong sensitivity of the drought risk in SSA to future anthropogenic emissions.

Enhanced trends in spectral greening and climate anomalies across Europe.

Europe witnessed a strong increase in climate variability and enhanced climate-induced extreme events, such as hot drought periods, mega heat waves, and persistent flooding and flash floods. Intensified land degradation, land use, and landcover changes further amplified the pressure on the environmental system functionalities and fuelled climate change feedbacks. On the other hand, global satellite observations detected a positive spectral greening trend-most likely as a response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming. But which are the engines behind such shifts in surface reflectance patterns, vegetation response to global climate changes, or anomalies in the environmental control mechanisms? This article compares long-term environmental variables (1948-2021) to recent vegetation index data (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), 2001-2021) and presents regional trends in climate variability and vegetation response across Europe. Results show that positive trends in vegetation response, temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are accompanied by a strong increase in climate anomalies over large parts of Europe. Vegetation dynamics are strongly coupled to increased temperature and enhanced soil moisture during winter and the early growing season in the northern latitudes. Simultaneously, temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture anomalies are strongly increasing. Such a strong amplification in climate variability across Europe further enhances the vulnerability of vegetation cover during extreme events.

Fire and rain: A systematic review of the impacts of wildfire and associated runoff on aquatic fauna.

Climate and land-use changes are expected to increase the future occurrence of wildfires, with potentially devastating consequences for freshwater species and ecosystems. Wildfires that burn in close proximity to freshwater systems can significantly alter the physicochemical properties of water. Following wildfires and heavy rain, freshwater species must contend with complex combinations of wildfire ash components (nutrients, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and metals), altered light and thermal regimes, and periods of low oxygen that together can lead to mass mortality events. However, the responses of aquatic fauna to wildfire disturbances are poorly understood. Here we provide a systematic review of available evidence on how aquatic animals respond to and recover from wildfire disturbance. Two databases (Web of Science and Scopus) were used to identify key literature. A total of 83 studies from across 11 countries were identified to have assessed the risk of wildfires on aquatic animals. We provide a summary of the main ecosystem-level changes associated with wildfires and the main responses of aquatic fauna to such disturbances. We pay special focus to physiological tools and biomarkers used to assess how wildfires impact aquatic animals. We conclude by providing an overview of how physiological biomarkers can further our understanding of wildfire-related impacts on aquatic fauna, and how different physiological tools can be incorporated into management and conservation plans and serve as early warning signs of wildfire disturbances.

Se espera que el cambio climático y el cambio en el uso de suelo aumentaran la ocurrencia de incendios forestales, con consecuencias potencialmente devastadoras para las especies de agua dulce y los ecosistemas. Los incendios forestales que arden cerca de los sistemas de agua dulce pueden alterar significativamente las propiedades fisicoquímicas del agua. Después de los incendios forestales y llueves fuertes, las especies de agua dulce lidian con combinaciones complejas de componentes de cenizas de incendios forestales (nutrientes, sedimentos, hidrocarburos aromáticos policíclicos y metales), regímenes de luz y térmicos alterados y períodos de bajo oxígeno que, en conjunto, pueden conducir a eventos de mortalidad masiva. Sin embargo, las respuestas de la fauna acuática a las perturbaciones de los incendios forestales son poco conocidas. Aquí proporcionamos una revisión sistemática de la evidencia disponible sobre cómo los animales acuáticos responden y se recuperan de la perturbación de los incendios forestales. Se utilizaron dos bases de datos (Web of Science y Scopus) para identificar la literatura clave. Se identificaron un total de 83 estudios de 11 países que habían evaluado el riesgo de incendios forestales en animales acuáticos. Proporcionamos un resumen de los principales cambios a nivel de ecosistema asociados con los incendios forestales y las principales respuestas de la fauna acuática a tales perturbaciones. Prestamos especial atención a las herramientas fisiológicas y los biomarcadores que se utilizan para evaluar cómo los incendios forestales afectan a los animales acuáticos. Concluimos proporcionando una descripción general de cómo los biomarcadores fisiológicos pueden mejorar nuestra comprensión de los impactos relacionados con los incendios forestales en la fauna acuática, y cómo se pueden incorporar diferentes herramientas fisiológicas en los planes de gestión y conservación y servir como señales de alerta temprana de las perturbaciones de los incendios forestales.

Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle.

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events including droughts and large precipitation events or "deluges." While many studies have focused on the ecological impacts of individual events (e.g., a heat wave), there is growing recognition that when extreme events co-occur as compound extremes, (e.g., a heatwave during a drought), the additive effects on ecosystems are often greater than either extreme alone. In this study, we assessed a unique type of extreme-a contrasting compound extreme-where the extremes may have offsetting, rather than additive ecological effects, by examining how a deluge during a drought impacts productivity and carbon cycling in a semi-arid grassland. The experiment consisted of four treatments: a control (average precipitation), an extreme drought (<5th percentile), an extreme drought interrupted by a single deluge (>95th percentile), or an extreme drought interrupted by the equivalent amount of precipitation added in several smaller events. We highlight three key results. First, extreme drought resulted in early senescence, reduced carbon uptake, and a decline in net primary productivity relative to the control treatment. Second, the deluge imposed during extreme drought stimulated carbon fluxes and plant growth well above the levels of both the control and the drought treatment with several additional smaller rainfall events, emphasizing the importance of precipitation amount, event size, and timing. Third, while the deluge's positive effects on carbon fluxes and plant growth persisted for 1 month, the deluge did not completely offset the negative effects of extreme drought on end-of-season productivity. Thus, in the case of these contrasting hydroclimatic extremes, a deluge during a drought can stimulate temporally dynamic ecosystem processes (e.g., net ecosystem exchange) while only partially compensating for reductions in ecosystem functions over longer time scales (e.g., aboveground net primary productivity).

Vegetation responses to climate extremes recorded by remotely sensed atmospheric formaldehyde.

Accurate monitoring of vegetation stress is required for better modelling and forecasting of primary production, in a world where heatwaves and droughts are expected to become increasingly prevalent. Variability in formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations in the troposphere is dominated by local emissions of short-lived biogenic (BVOC) and pyrogenic volatile organic compounds. BVOCs are emitted by plants in a rapid protective response to abiotic stress, mediated by the energetic status of leaves (the excess of reducing power when photosynthetic light and dark reactions are decoupled, as occurs when stomata close in response to water stress). Emissions also increase exponentially with leaf temperature. New analytical methods for the detection of spatiotemporally contiguous extremes in remote-sensing data are applied here to satellite-derived atmospheric HCHO columns. BVOC emissions are shown to play a central role in the formation of the largest positive HCHO anomalies. Although vegetation stress can be captured by various remotely sensed quantities, spaceborne HCHO emerges as the most consistent recorder of vegetation responses to the largest climate extremes, especially in forested regions.

Identifying climate thresholds for dominant natural vegetation types at the global scale using machine learning: Average climate versus extremes.

The global distribution of vegetation is largely determined by climatic conditions and feeds back into the climate system. To predict future vegetation changes in response to climate change, it is crucial to identify and understand key patterns and processes that couple vegetation and climate. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been widely applied to describe the distribution of vegetation types and their future dynamics in response to climate change. As a process-based approach, it partly relies on hard-coded climate thresholds to constrain the distribution of vegetation. What thresholds to implement in DGVMs and how to replace them with more process-based descriptions remain among the major challenges. In this study, we employ machine learning using decision trees to extract large-scale relationships between the global distribution of vegetation and climatic characteristics from remotely sensed vegetation and climate data. We analyse how the dominant vegetation types are linked to climate extremes as compared to seasonally or annually averaged climatic conditions. The results show that climate extremes allow us to describe the distribution and eco-climatological space of the vegetation types more accurately than the averaged climate variables, especially those types which occupy small territories in a relatively homogeneous ecological space. Future predicted vegetation changes using both climate extremes and averaged climate variables are less prominent than that predicted by averaged climate variables and are in better agreement with those of DGVMs, further indicating the importance of climate extremes in determining geographic distributions of different vegetation types. We found that the temperature thresholds for vegetation types (e.g. grass and open shrubland) in cold environments vary with moisture conditions. The coldest daily maximum temperature (extreme cold day) is particularly important for separating many different vegetation types. These findings highlight the need for a more explicit representation of the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation in DGVMs.

Showcasing MESMER-X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models.

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes.

A study on correlations between precipitation ETCCDI and airborne pollen/fungal spore parameters in the NE Iberian Peninsula.

Precipitation is one of the meteorological variables usually involved in the aerobiological studies, which presents a complex relationship with atmospheric levels of pollen and fungal spores and the temporal characteristics of their seasons. This complexity is due in a large part to rainfall's twofold impact of having, prior to pollination, a positive influence on subsequent pollen production and of contributing, during pollination, to pollen removal from the air through a wash-out effect. To better explore this impact, we place particular emphasis on extreme rainfall by calculating the correlation between airborne pollen and fungal spore parameters and the precipitation indices that the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) proposed for characterising climate extremes. Parameters for twenty-seven pollen and fungal spore taxa measured in six aerobiological stations in the NE Iberian Peninsula have been considered. We have distinguished between annual and winter ETCCDI in order to compare the correlations between extreme rainfall and airborne pollen concentrations and to avoid the wash-out effect as far as possible. Results show a positive influence from an increase in moderately extreme winter rainfall, specifically on subsequent pollen/fungal spore production: the percentage of all possible significant correlations is higher for winter than for annual rainfall. Furthermore, while annual rainfall in this region has nearly the same number of positive as negative correlations, the positive correlations for winter rainfall are more than twice that of the negative ones. The seasonal consideration on rainfall ETCCDI made with the aim to avoid the confounding overlapping of different rainfall impacts has led to more sharpened observations of its positive and negative effects on airborne pollen and fungal spore concentrations.