Idea engines: Unifying innovation & obsolescence from markets & genetic evolution to science.

Innovation and obsolescence describe dynamics of ever-churning and adapting social and biological systems, concepts that encompass field-specific formulations. We formalize the connection with a reduced model of the dynamics of the "space of the possible" (e.g., technologies, mutations, theories) to which agents (e.g., firms, organisms, scientists) couple as they grow, die, and replicate. We predict three regimes: The space is finite, ever growing, or a Schumpeterian dystopia in which obsolescence drives the system to collapse. We reveal a critical boundary at which the space of the possible fluctuates dramatically in size, displaying recurrent periods of minimal and of veritable diversity. When the space is finite, corresponding to physically realizable systems, we find surprising structure. This structure predicts a taxonomy for the density of agents near and away from the innovative frontier that we compare with distributions of firm productivity, COVID diversity, and citation rates for scientific publications. Our minimal model derived from first principles aligns with empirical examples, implying a follow-the-leader dynamic in firm cost efficiency and biological evolution, whereas scientific progress reflects consensus that waits on old ideas to go obsolete. Our theory introduces a fresh and empirically testable framework for unifying innovation and obsolescence across fields.

Competition and firm recovery post-COVID-19.

This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the reallocation of economic activity across firms and whether this reallocation depends on the competition environment. The paper uses the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys for about 8000 firms, including both small and large firms, in 23 emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, matched with 2019 Enterprise Surveys data. It finds that during the COVID-19 crisis, smaller firms were hit harder, and economic activity was reallocated toward firms with higher pre-crisis labor productivity. Countries with a strong competition environment experienced more reallocation from less productive to more productive firms than countries with a weak competition environment. The evidence also suggests that reallocation from low- to high-productivity firms during the COVID-19 crisis was stronger compared with pre-crisis times. Finally, the analysis shows that government support measures implemented in response to the crisis may have adverse effects on competition and productivity growth since support went to less productive and larger firms, regardless of their pre-crisis innovation.

Creative Destruction and Subjective Well-Being.

In this paper we analyze the relationship between turnover-driven growth and subjective wellbeing. Our model of innovation-led growth and unemployment predicts that: (i) the effect of creative destruction on expected individual welfare should be unambiguously positive if we control for unemployment, less so if we do not; (ii) job creation has a positive and job destruction has a negative impact on wellbeing; (iii) job destruction has a less negative impact in US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) within states with more generous unemployment insurance policies; (iv) job creation has a more positive effect on individuals that are more forward-looking. The empirical analysis using cross-sectional MSA-level and individual-level data provide empirical support to these predictions.

Vulnerability and resilience of the road transport industry in Poland to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

The research aims to examine the vulnerability and resilience of road transport enterprises in Poland to a crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In theory, we refer to the Schumpeterian perspective of creative destruction. In the empirical analysis, survey data on 500 transport companies randomly selected from the database were used. We estimated partial proportional odds models to show the factors responsible for the enterprises' vulnerability and resilience to unforeseen shock. The perspective refers to the total sample size and the division into two subgroups: micro and small and medium enterprises. To justify the results, we calculated a set of statistical indicators and tests. These models enable separating enterprises according to the vulnerability level. Transport enterprises occurred significantly vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis, particularly the demand shock. The only factor that influenced resilience was the decrease in fuel prices, which allowed a cost reduction. The crisis showed that government aid was helpful in the short run, particularly for micro and small enterprises. The medium-sized enterprises were more resilient than micro and small ones. We formulated several recommendations to help transport enterprises to adjust in the medium term.

Assessing Health Care Professionals' Mindset in Adopting Telemedicine Post COVID-19: Pilot Questionnaire Study.

BACKGROUND: Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the traditional health care model has evolved toward a more patient-centric model. In relation to this trend, digital health services have seen an acceleration, which may have significant implications for the health care model. Due to the impact of COVID-19 on health care facilities, it is important to explore health professionals' willingness to adopt a patient-centric digital health delivery model for medicine and health care. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to pilot a survey that assesses the impact and implementation of telehealth in view of health care providers prior to and post COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 26 volunteer health care professionals participated in the pilot study, of which 19/26 (73%) completed the general demographics portion. Among these respondents, 9/26 (35%) completed the entirety of the survey. The questionnaire included questions relating to general demographics, accessibility and benefits, usability, and engagements with telemedicine. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of the 4 questionnaire designs (A-D) based on their expertise in telehealth. Of the 9 total participants who completed their randomly assigned questionnaire, 1 (11%) was randomly assigned to A, 3 (33%) were randomly assigned to B, 2 (22%) were randomly assigned to C, and 3 (33%) were randomly assigned to D. RESULTS: Responses and data from the study questionnaire were collected from Qualtrics. Microsoft Excel was used for data organization. Due to limited responses and data, no advanced statistical software was implemented. From the 9 participants who completed the entirety of the survey, responses from those with telehealth experience (n=4) showed that telehealth was preferred for follow-ups, lab results, and consultations, and that with telehealth, there was greater flexibility with appointment times and a decrease in the number of patients seen. Among the 4 health care providers with telehealth experience, all of them believed it improved accessibility and reduced physical barriers; health care professionals believed telehealth reduced translational barriers with patients. Among health care professionals without telehealth experience (n=5), 60% (3/5) reported a decrease in appointments for in-office visits post COVID-19 and strongly agreed or agreed that telehealth could influence the quality of care for patients. All 5 participants also reported no general concerns about telehealth prior to the pandemic and agreed that it would provide accessibility for patients. CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary findings of our pilot study showed initial support of a dynamical shift within the health care model due to the rise in the use of telehealth services between health care providers and patients but no statistically significant results. Further research and investigation with a larger sample size is warranted to better understand the mindset of health care professionals in adopting telemedicine post COVID-19.

How creative destruction functions in corporate entrepreneurial process: an empirical investigation of Schumpeterian concept in engineering firm settings in Pakistan.

Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction (CD) explains innovation functions in organisations. This paper investigates the CD concept in engineering firms by explaining how technical opportunity (TO) transforms into corporate entrepreneurship (CE) actions once opportunities have a market orientation (MO). A survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire with 132 managers of engineering firms in Pakistan. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) using Partial Least Square (PLS) approach has been used to analyse the data. Results reveal that MO and TO exerts a positive influence on CE. MO is the reason for the emergence of TO, which corporate entrepreneurs in engineering firms exploit. CD intensifies the impact of MO on TO significantly. Opportunity recognition in engineering firms is distinguished and bounded by MO and technical viability. Engineering firms need to identify gaps in the market through naturally occurring obsolescence of products and services (CD) to create TO with appropriate MO. This study has revived a classical debate over opportunity recognition by incorporating external factors to propose the CE model. The Schumpeterian opportunity recognition process and CD have been examined for engineering firms.

Bioinformational trends in grape and wine biotechnology.

The creative destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic is yielding immense opportunity for collaborative innovation networks. The confluence of biosciences, information sciences, and the engineering of biology, is unveiling promising bioinformational futures for a vibrant and sustainable bioeconomy. Bioinformational engineering, underpinned by DNA reading, writing, and editing technologies, has become a beacon of opportunity in a world paralysed by uncertainty. This article draws on lessons from the current pandemic and previous agricultural blights, and explores bioinformational research directions aimed at future-proofing the grape and wine industry against biological shocks from global blights and climate change.

COVID-19: A Cloud with a Silver Lining for Renewable Energy?

COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented reduction in demand for energy for transportation and electricity, a crash in prices and employment in the fossil fuel industries and record-breaking reductions in global carbon emissions. This paper discusses whether this "demand destruction" could spell the beginning of the end for fossil fuels or a temporary recession and the imperative to recover from the current crisis by "building back better" and not the same as before. There are encouraging signs for the renewable energy industry that could make COVID-19 a cloud with a silver lining; whether this is the case will depend not only on the technological realities and social response to the crisis but also on political will and foresight.

Digital technology and social change: the digital transformation of society from a historical perspective
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Digital technology, including its omnipresent connectedness and its powerful artificial intelligence, is the most recent long wave of humanity's socioeconomic evolution. The first technological revolutions go all the way back to the Stone, Bronze, and Iron Ages, when the transformation of material was the driving force in the Schumpeterian process of creative destruction. A second metaparadigm of societal modernization was dedicated to the transformation of energy (aka the "industrial revolutions"), including water, steam, electric, and combustion power. The current metaparadigm focuses on the transformation of information. Less than 1% of the world's technologically stored information was in digital format in the late 1980s, surpassing more than 99% by 2012. Every 2.5 to 3 years, humanity is able to store more information than since the beginning of civilization. The current age focuses on algorithms that automate the conversion of data into actionable knowledge. This article reviews the underlying theoretical framework and some accompanying data from the perspective of innovation theory.
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La tecnología digital, que incluye una altísima conectividad y una poderosa inteligencia artificial, constituye el desarrollo más reciente y significativo en la evolución socioeconómica de la humanidad. Las primeras revoluciones tecnológicas se remontan a las Edades de Piedra, Bronce y Hierro, cuando la transformación del material fue la fuerza impulsora en el proceso Schumpeteriano de destrucción creativa. Un segundo metaparadigma de modernización social fue el que ocurrió con la transformación de la energía (también conocida como "revoluciones industriales"), incluyendo el agua, el vapor, la electricidad y la energía de combustión. El metaparadigma actual se centra en la transformación de la información. A fines de la década de 1980, menos del 1% de la información almacenada tecnológicamente en el mundo estaba en formato digital y ha llegado a más del 99% en 2012. Cada 2,5 a 3 años, la humanidad puede almacenar más información que desde el comienzo de la civilización. La era actual se centra en algoritmos que automatizan la conversión de datos en conocimiento procesable. Desde la perspectiva de la teoría de la innovación, este artículo revisa el marco teórico subyacente y algunos datos inherentes a él.

La technologie numérique, sa connectivité omniprésente et la puissance de l'intelligence artificielle font vivre à l'humanité sa phase d'évolution la plus longue sur un plan socio-économique. Les premières révolutions technologiques remontent à l'âge de pierre, du bronze et du fer, lorsque la transformation de la matière était le moteur du processus schumpétérien de destruction créatrice. La transformation de l'énergie qu'elle soit hydraulique, à vapeur, électrique ou par combustion (aussi appelée "révolutions industrielles") est à l'origine d'un deuxième méta-modèle de modernisation sociétale basée sur le changement technologique. La transformation de l'information est au centre du méta-modèle actuel. Moins de 1 % de l'information était stockée en format numérique à la fin des années 80, contre plus de 99 % en 2012Tous les 2,5 à 3 ans, l'humanité est capable d'archiver plus d'informations que celles créées depuis le début des civilisations. Nous sommes maintenant entrés dans l'ère des algorithmes qui automatisent la conversion des données en connaissances exploitables. Dans cet article, nous nous plaçons du point de vue de l'innovation pour analyser le cadre théorique de cette transformation et certaines données qui y sont inhérentes.