Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California's freshwater ecosystems.

As human-caused climate changes accelerate, California will experience hydrologic and temperature conditions different than any encountered in recorded history. How will these changes affect the state's freshwater ecosystems? Rivers, lakes, and wetlands are managed as a water resource, but they also support a complex web of life, ranging from bacteria, fungi, and algae to macrophytes, woody plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In much of the state, native freshwater organisms already struggle to survive massive water diversions and dams, deteriorating water quality, extensive land cover modification for agriculture and urban development, and invasions of exotic species. In the face of climate change, we need to expand efforts to recover degraded ecosystems and to protect the resilience, health, and viability of existing ecosystems. For this, more process-based understanding of river, lake, and wetlands ecosystems is needed to forecast how systems will respond to future climate change and to our interventions. This will require 1) expanding our ability to model mechanistically how freshwater biota and ecosystems respond to environmental change; 2) hypothesis-driven monitoring and field studies; 3) education and training to build research, practitioner, stewardship, and policy capabilities; and 4) developing tools and policies for building resilient ecosystems. A goals-driven, hypothesis-informed collaboration among tribes, state (and federal) agencies, nongovernmental organizations, academicians, and consultants is needed to accomplish these goals and to advance the skills and knowledge of the future workforce of practitioners, regulators, and researchers who must live with the climate changes that are already upon us and will intensify.

Concurrent warming and browning eliminate cold-water fish habitat in many temperate lakes.

Cold-water species in temperate lakes face two simultaneous climate-driven ecosystem changes: warming and browning of their waters. Browning refers to reduced transparency arising from increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which absorbs solar energy near the surface. It is unclear whether the net effect is mitigation or amplification of climate warming impacts on suitable oxythermal habitat (<20 °C, >5 mgO/L) for cold-loving species because browning expands the vertical distribution of both cool water and oxygen depletion. We analyzed long-term trends and high-frequency sensor data from browning lakes in New York's Adirondack region to assess the contemporary status of summertime habitat for lacustrine brook trout. Across two decades, surface temperatures increased twice as fast and bottom dissolved oxygen declined >180% faster than average trends for temperate lakes. We identify four lake categories based on oxythermal habitat metrics: constrained, squeezed, overheated, and buffered. In most of our study lakes, trout face either seasonal loss (7 of 15) or dramatic restriction (12 to 21% of the water column; 5 of 15) of suitable habitat. These sobering statistics reflect rapid upward expansion of oxygen depletion in lakes with moderate or high DOC relative to compression of heat penetration. Only in very clear lakes has browning potentially mitigated climate warming. Applying our findings to extensive survey data suggests that decades of browning have reduced oxythermal refugia in most Adirondack lakes. We conclude that joint warming and browning may preclude self-sustaining cold-water fisheries in many temperate lakes; hence, oxythermal categorization is essential to guide triage strategies and management interventions.

Estimating biotic integrity to capture existence value of freshwater ecosystems.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a water quality index (WQI) to estimate benefits of proposed Clean Water Act regulations. The WQI is relevant to human use value, such as recreation, but may not fully capture aspects of nonuse value, such as existence value. Here, we identify an index of biological integrity to supplement the WQI in a forthcoming national stated preference survey that seeks to capture existence value of streams and lakes more accurately within the conterminous United States (CONUS). We used literature and focus group research to evaluate aquatic indices regularly reported by the EPA's National Aquatic Resource Surveys. We chose an index that quantifies loss in biodiversity as the observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio of taxonomic composition because focus group participants easily understood its meaning and the environmental changes that would result in incremental improvements. However, available datasets of this index do not provide the spatial coverage to account for how conditions near survey respondents affect their willingness to pay for its improvement. Therefore, we modeled and interpolated the values of this index from sampled sites to 1.1 million stream segments and 297,071 lakes across the CONUS to provide the required coverage. The models explained 13 to 36% of the variation in O/E scores and demonstrate how modeling can provide data at the required density for benefits estimation. We close by discussing future work to improve performance of the models and to link biological condition with water quality and habitat models that will allow us to forecast changes resulting from regulatory options.

Exploring Andean High-Altitude Lake Extremophiles through Advanced Proteotyping.

Quickly identifying and characterizing isolates from extreme environments is currently challenging while very important to explore the Earth's biodiversity. As these isolates may, in principle, be distantly related to known species, techniques are needed to reliably identify the branch of life to which they belong. Proteotyping these environmental isolates by tandem mass spectrometry offers a rapid and cost-effective option for their identification using their peptide profiles. In this study, we document the first high-throughput proteotyping approach for environmental extremophilic and halophilic isolates. Microorganisms were isolated from samples originating from high-altitude Andean lakes (3700-4300 m a.s.l.) in the Chilean Altiplano, which represent environments on Earth that resemble conditions on other planets. A total of 66 microorganisms were cultivated and identified by proteotyping and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Both the approaches revealed the same genus identification for all isolates except for three isolates possibly representing not yet taxonomically characterized organisms based on their peptidomes. Proteotyping was able to indicate the presence of two potentially new genera from the families of Paracoccaceae and Chromatiaceae/Alteromonadaceae, which have been overlooked by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing approach only. The paper highlights that proteotyping has the potential to discover undescribed microorganisms from extreme environments.

Tracing Eastern Wolf Origins From Whole-Genome Data in Context of Extensive Hybridization.

Southeastern Canada is inhabited by an amalgam of hybridizing wolf-like canids, raising fundamental questions regarding their taxonomy, origins, and timing of hybridization events. Eastern wolves (Canis lycaon), specifically, have been the subject of significant controversy, being viewed as either a distinct taxonomic entity of conservation concern or a recent hybrid of coyotes (C. latrans) and grey wolves (C. lupus). Mitochondrial DNA analyses show some evidence of eastern wolves being North American evolved canids. In contrast, nuclear genome studies indicate eastern wolves are best described as a hybrid entity, but with unclear timing of hybridization events. To test hypotheses related to these competing findings we sequenced whole genomes of 25 individuals, representative of extant Canadian wolf-like canid types of known origin and levels of contemporary hybridization. Here we present data describing eastern wolves as a distinct taxonomic entity that evolved separately from grey wolves for the past ∼67,000 years with an admixture event with coyotes ∼37,000 years ago. We show that Great Lakes wolves originated as a product of admixture between grey wolves and eastern wolves after the last glaciation (∼8,000 years ago) while eastern coyotes originated as a product of admixture between "western" coyotes and eastern wolves during the last century. Eastern wolf nuclear genomes appear shaped by historical and contemporary gene flow with grey wolves and coyotes, yet evolutionary uniqueness remains among eastern wolves currently inhabiting a restricted range in southeastern Canada.

Differences in archaeal diversity and potential ecological functions between saline and hypersaline lakes on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were driven by multiple environmental and non-environmental factors beyond the salinity.

BACKGROUND: Saline lakes are home to various archaea that play special and crucial roles in the global biogeochemical cycle. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau hosts a large number of lakes with diverse salinity ranging from 0.1 to over 400 g/L, harboring complex and diverse archaea. To the best of our knowledge, the formation mechanisms and potential ecological roles of archaea in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau saline lakes remain largely unknown. RESULTS: Using High-throughput Illumina sequencing, we uncovered the vastly distinct archaea communities between two typical saline lakes with significant salinity differences on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau (Qinghai saline lake and Chaka hypersaline lake) and suggested archaea played different important roles in methanogenesis-related and nitrate reduction-related functions of these two lakes, respectively. Rather than the individual effect of salinity, the composite effect of salinity with diverse environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll a, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) dominated the explanation of the variations in archaeal community structure in different habitats. Based on the network analysis, we further found the correlations between dominant archaeal OTUs were tight but significantly different between the two habitats, implying that archaeal interactions may also largely determine the shape of archaeal communities. CONCLUSION: The present study improved our understanding of the structure and function of archaea in different saline lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and provided a new perspective on the mechanisms underlying shaping their communities.

Niche conservatism and spread explain introgression between native and invasive fish.

Hybridisation can be an important driver of evolutionary change, but hybridisation with invasive species can have adverse effects on native biodiversity. While hybridisation has been documented across taxa, there is limited understanding of ecological factors promoting patterns of hybridisation and the spatial distribution of hybrid individuals. We combined the results of ecological niche modelling (ENM) and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to test theories of niche conservatism and biotic resistance on the success of invasion, admixture, and extent of introgression between native and non-native fishes. We related Maxent predictions of habitat suitability based on the native ranges of invasive Eastern Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus diaphanus Lesueur 1817) and native Western Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus menona Jordan and Copeland 1877) to admixture indices of individual Banded Killifish. We found that Eastern Banded Killifish predominated at sites predicted as suitable from their ENM, consistent with niche conservatism. Admixed individuals were more common as Eastern Banded Killifish habitat suitability declined. We also found that Eastern Banded Killifish were most common at sites closest to the presumed source of this invasion, whereas the proportion of admixed individuals increased with distance from the source of invasion. Lastly, we found little evidence that habitat suitability for Western Banded Killifish provides biotic resistance from either displacement by, or admixture with, invasive Eastern Banded Killifish. Our study demonstrates that ENMs can inform conservation-relevant outcomes between native and invasive taxa while emphasising the importance of protecting isolated Western Banded Killifish populations from invasive conspecifics.

Declining calcium concentration drives shifts toward smaller and less nutritious zooplankton in northern lakes.

Zooplankton community composition of northern lakes is changing due to the interactive effects of climate change and recovery from acidification, yet limited data are available to assess these changes combined. Here, we built a database using archives of temperature, water chemistry and zooplankton data from 60 Scandinavian lakes that represent broad spatial and temporal gradients in key parameters: temperature, calcium (Ca), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), and pH. Using machine learning techniques, we found that Ca was the most important determinant of the relative abundance of all zooplankton groups studied, while pH was second, and TOC third in importance. Further, we found that Ca is declining in almost all lakes, and we detected a critical Ca threshold in lake water of 1.3 mg L-1 , below which the relative abundance of zooplankton shifts toward dominance of Holopedium gibberum and small cladocerans at the expense of Daphnia and copepods. Our findings suggest that low Ca concentrations may shape zooplankton communities, and that current trajectories of Ca decline could promote widespread changes in pelagic food webs as zooplankton are important trophic links from phytoplankton to fish and different zooplankton species play different roles in this context.

Dominance of net autotrophy in arid landscape low relief polar lakes, Nunavut, Canada.

The Arctic is the fastest warming biome on the planet, and environmental changes are having striking effects on freshwater ecosystems that may impact the regional carbon cycle. The metabolic state of Arctic lakes is often considered net heterotrophic, due to an assumed supply of allochthonous organic matter that supports ecosystem respiration and carbon mineralization in excess of rates of primary production. However, lake metabolic patterns vary according to regional climatic characteristics, hydrological connectivity, organic matter sources and intrinsic lake properties, and the metabolism of most Arctic lakes is unknown. We sampled 35 waterbodies along a connectivity gradient from headwater to downstream lakes, on southern Victoria Island, Nunavut, in an area characterized by low precipitation, organic-poor soils, and high evaporation rates. We evaluated whether lakes were net autotrophic or heterotrophic during the open water period using an oxygen isotopic mass balance approach. Most of the waterbodies were autotrophic and sites of net organic matter production or close to metabolic equilibrium. Autotrophy was associated with higher benthic primary production, as compared to its pelagic counterpart, due to the high irradiance reaching the bottom and efficient internal carbon and nutrient cycling. Highly connected midstream and downstream lakes showed efficient organic matter cycling, as evidenced by the strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, while decoupling was observed in some headwater lakes with significantly higher GPP. The shallow nature of lakes in the flat, arid region of southern Victoria Island supports net autotrophy in most lakes during the open water season. Ongoing climate changes that lengthen the ice-free irradiance period and increase rates of nutrient evapoconcentration may further promote net autotrophy, with uncertain long-term effects for lake functioning.

Size matters: Aerobic methane oxidation in sediments of shallow thermokarst lakes.

Shallow thermokarst lakes are important sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane (CH4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) resulting from continuous permafrost thawing due to global warming. Concentrations of GHGs dissolved in water typically increase with decreasing lake size due to coastal abrasion and organic matter delivery. We hypothesized that (i) CH4 oxidation depends on the natural oxygenation gradient in the lake water and sediments and increases with lake size because of stronger wind-induced water mixing; (ii) CO2 production increases with decreasing lake size, following the dissolved organic matter gradient; and (iii) both processes are more intensive in the upper than deeper sediments due to the in situ gradients of oxygen (O2 ) and bioavailable carbon. We estimated aerobic CH4 oxidation potentials and CO2 production based on the injection of 13 C-labeled CH4 in the 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm sediment depths of small (~300 m2 ), medium (~3000 m2 ), and large (~106 m2 ) shallow thermokarst lakes in the West Siberian Lowland. The CO2 production was 1.4-3.5 times stronger in the upper sediments than in the 10-20 cm depth and increased from large (158 ± 18 nmol CO2 g-1 sediment d.w. h-1 ) to medium and small (192 ± 17 nmol CO2 g-1 h-1 ) lakes. Methane oxidation in the upper sediments was similar in all lakes, while at depth, large lakes had 14- and 74-fold faster oxidation rates (5.1 ± 0.5 nmol CH4 -derived CO2 g-1 h-1 ) than small and medium lakes, respectively. This was attributed to the higher O2 concentration in large lakes due to the more intense wind-induced water turbulence and mixing than in smaller lakes. From a global perspective, the CH4 oxidation potential confirms the key role of thermokarst lakes as an important hotspot for GHG emissions, which increase with the decreasing lake size.

Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems.

Wildfire activity is increasing globally. The resulting smoke plumes can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers, reflecting or scattering sunlight and depositing particles within ecosystems. Several key physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes are controlled by factors affected by smoke. The spatial and temporal scales of lake exposure to smoke are extensive and under-recognized. We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 to 2021. Because smoke can be transported at continental to intercontinental scales, even regions that may not typically experience direct burning of landscapes by wildfire are at risk of smoke exposure. We found that 99.3% of North America was covered by smoke, affecting a total of 1,333,687 lakes ≥10 ha. An incredible 98.9% of lakes experienced at least 10 smoke-days a year, with 89.6% of lakes receiving over 30 lake smoke-days, and lakes in some regions experiencing up to 4 months of cumulative smoke-days. Herein we review the mechanisms through which smoke and ash can affect lakes by altering the amount and spectral composition of incoming solar radiation and depositing carbon, nutrients, or toxic compounds that could alter chemical conditions and impact biota. We develop a conceptual framework that synthesizes known and theoretical impacts of smoke on lakes to guide future research. Finally, we identify emerging research priorities that can help us better understand how lakes will be affected by smoke as wildfire activity increases due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities.

Evolution in fossil time series reconciles observations in micro- and macroevolution.

Extrapolating microevolutionary models does not always provide satisfactory explanations for phenotypic diversification on million-year time scales. For example, short-term evolutionary change is often modeled assuming a fixed adaptive landscape, but macroevolutionary changes are likely to involve changes in the adaptive landscape itself. A better understanding of how the adaptive landscape changes across different time intervals and how these changes cause populations to evolve has the potential to narrow the gap between micro- and macroevolution. Here, we analyze two fossil diatom time series of exceptional quality and resolution covering time intervals of a few hundred thousand years using models that account for different behaviors of the adaptive landscape. We find that one of the lineages evolves on a randomly and continuously changing landscape, whereas the other lineage evolves on a landscape that shows a rapid shift in the position of the adaptive peak of a magnitude that is typically associated with species-level differentiation. This suggests phenotypic evolution beyond generational timescales may be a consequence of both gradual and sudden repositioning of adaptive peaks. Both lineages are showing rapid and erratic evolutionary change and are constantly readapting towards the optimal trait state, observations that align with evolutionary dynamics commonly observed in contemporary populations. The inferred trait evolution over a span of a few hundred thousand years in these two lineages is therefore chimeric in the sense that it combines components of trait evolution typically observed on both short and long timescales.

Ciliate Grazing on the Bloom-Forming Microalga Gonyostomum semen.

The freshwater raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen forms extensive summer blooms in northern European humic lakes. The development of these blooms might be facilitated by a lack of natural top-down control, as few zooplankton species are able to prey on these large algal cells (up to 100 µm) that expel trichocysts upon physical stress. In this study, we describe a small ciliate species (< 17 µm) that preys on G. semen by damaging the cell membrane until cytoplasm and organelles spill out. Sequencing of clonal cultures of the ciliate tentatively identified it as the prostomatid species Urotricha pseudofurcata. Grazing experiments illustrated that feeding by U. cf. pseudofurcata can significantly reduce cell concentrations of the microalga. However, differences in cell size and growth rate between two investigated ciliate strains resulted in noticeably different grazing pressure. Environmental sequencing data from five different lakes supported potential interactions between the two species. Urotricha cf. pseudofurcata might, thus, play an important role in aquatic ecosystems that are regularly dominated by G. semen, reducing the abundance of this bloom-forming microalga and enabling transfer of organic carbon to higher trophic levels.

Preferential Partitioning of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Freshwater Ice.

Millions of lakes worldwide freeze, yet the fate of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in ice in freshwater systems is poorly understood. We quantified concentrations of 36 PFAS, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and inorganic ions in ice and water in seven freshwater lakes to investigate the preferential exclusion of ions during freezing. PFAS concentrations in ice are typically lower than in the water column, demonstrating that these chemicals are excluded from ice as it freezes. However, there is preferential partitioning of both PFAS and DOC relative to cations with average sodium-normalized enrichment factors (EF) ranging from 2.74 for perfluorobutanoate (PFBA; a C4 perfluorocarboxylic acid) to 4.01 for perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS; a C8 perfluorosulfonic acid), with a similar EF value of 4.14 for DOC. Laboratory experiments and seasonal measurements of PFAS in the water column indicate that PFAS concentrations in ice are a function of aqueous PFAS concentrations, with lower EF values observed in waters with higher PFAS concentrations. Understanding PFAS behavior in freshwater ice is important for predicting contaminant fate during winter and spring periods, with implications for exposure to PFAS during the winter and release of PFAS when ice melts in freshwater systems.

The Ins and Outs of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in the Great Lakes: The Role of Atmospheric Deposition.

As part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network, precipitation (n = 207) and air (n = 60) from five sites and water samples (n = 87) from all five Great Lakes were collected in 2021-2023 and analyzed for 41 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). These measurements were combined with other available data to estimate the mass budget for four representative compounds, PFBA, PFBS, PFOS, and PFOA for the basin. The median Σ41PFAS concentrations in precipitation across the five sites ranged between 2.4 and 4.5 ng/L. The median Σ41PFAS concentration in lake water was highest in Lake Ontario (11 ng/L) and lowest in Lake Superior (1.3 ng/L). The median Σ41PFAS concentration in air samples was highest in Cleveland at 410 pg/m3 and lowest at Sleeping Bear Dunes at 146 pg/m3. The net mass transfer flows were generally negative for Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron and positive for Lakes Erie and Ontario, indicating that the three most northern lakes are accumulating PFAS and the other two are eliminating PFAS. Atmospheric deposition is an important source of PFAS, particularly for Lake Superior.

A Broad-Scale Look at Nutrient Limitation and a Shift toward Co-limitation in United States Lakes.

There is a longstanding debate about the role of nitrogen (N) vs phosphorus (P) in limiting primary production in lakes and whether co-nutrient limitation should be considered for managing eutrophication. We evaluated nutrient limitation and eutrophication at a subcontinental scale. Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment data, we assessed broad-scale patterns in nutrient limitation and compared samples of all surveyed lakes and lakes resurveyed in multiple surveys. We found that N correlated more strongly with productivity in the western U.S., while P correlated more strongly in the eastern U.S. The aggregated subcontinental effect suggests the importance of factors like N-deposition, terrestrial vegetation, underlying geology, and land use for understanding drivers of nutrient dynamics in lakes. Our study showed how patterns can aggregate across subcontinental scales yet still demonstrate considerable variation when more deeply examined on an individual lake level. Overall, we found that nutrient limitation is dynamic over space and time, with most lakes being co-limited. The prevalence of co-limitation also increased from 2007 to 2017. Trophic states within each limitation category varied substantially. Our findings underscore the need for combined N and P reductions to mitigate accelerated eutrophication.

Spatial and temporal variation in lake macroinvertebrate communities is decreased by eutrophication.

Eutrophication impacts freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity across the world. While temporal monitoring has shown changes in the nutrient inputs in many areas, how spatial and temporal beta diversity change along the eutrophication gradient under a changing context remains unclear. In this regard, analyses based on time series spanning multiple years are particularly scarce. We sampled benthic macroinvertebrates in 32 sites across three lake habitat types (MACROPHYTE, OPEN WATER, PHYTOPLANKTON) along the eutrophication gradient of Lake Taihu in four seasons from 2007 to 2019. Our purpose was to identify the relative contributions of spatial and temporal dissimilarity (i.e., inter-annual dissimilarity and seasonal dissimilarity) to overall benthic biodiversity. We also examined spatio-temporal patterns in community assembly mechanisms and how associated variation in benthic macroinvertebrate communities responded to nutrient indicators. Results showed that eutrophication caused macroinvertebrate community homogenization both along spatial and temporal gradients. Though spatial variability dominated the variation of species richness, abundance and community dissimilarity, seasons within years dissimilarity, inter-annual dissimilarity and seasonal dissimilarity were much more sensitive to eutrophication. Moreover, eutrophication inhibited a strong environmental control in benthic macroinvertebrate community assembly, including a dominant role of deterministic process in the spatial variation of macroinvertebrate communities and transition from stochastic to deterministic process in the temporal assembly of macroinvertebrate communities along the eutrophication gradient. In addition, some sites in PHYTOPLANKTON habitats showed similar spatial dissimilarity and spatial SES as sites in MACROPHYTE habitats, and the decreased spatial dissimilarity of three habitats implying that lake ecosystem recovery projects have achieved their goal at least to a certain degree.

Insights into priming effects of dissolved organic matter degradation in urban lakes with different trophic states.

Priming effect (PE) is recognized as an important potential mechanism for dissolved organic matter (DOM) degradation in aquatic ecosystems. However, the priming effects (PEs) of various priming substances on the degradation of DOM pools in urban lakes along diverse trophic states remain unknown. To address this knowledge gap, the PEs and drivers of glucose and plant leachate of lake water with three trophic states were investigated. We reveal differences in the bioavailability of DOM in lake water, glucose, and plant leachate. The PE of the same priming substance was significantly higher in highly-eutrophic lake water than in mesotrophic lake. The priming intensity induced by glucose was significantly higher when compared to plant leachate. Regarding the addition of glucose, humic-like components (C1 and C3) showed slight PE, while the tyrosine-like component C2 showed negative PE. However, the positive PEs were observed on three components after adding plant leachate. The driver of PE by glucose shifted from nutrients to DOM components with increasing trophic levels. The PEs induced by plant leachate were affected by nutrients, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), water chemistry, and DOM components in lightly/moderately-eutrophic lake water. This study revealed the intensities, directions, and drivers of PEs, providing essential insights into uncovering the DOM biogeochemical process in urban lakes.

Significant diurnal variations in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from two contrasting habitats in a large eutrophic lake (Lake Taihu, China).

Algae and macrophytes in lake ecosystems regulate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from eutrophic lakes. However, knowledge of diurnal N2O emission patterns from different habitats remains limited. To understand the diurnal patterns and driving mechanisms of N2O emissions from contrasting habitats, continuous in situ observations (72 h) of N2O fluxes from an algae-dominated zone (ADZ) and reed-dominated zone (RDZ) in Lake Taihu were conducted using the Floating Chamber method. The results showed average N2O emission fluxes of 0.15 ± 0.06 and 0.02 ± 0.04 µmol m-2 h-1 in the ADZ and RDZ in autumn, respectively. The significantly higher (p < 0.05) N2O fluxes in the ADZ were mainly attributed to differences in nitrogen (N) levels. The results also showed significant diurnal differences (p < 0.05) in the N2O emission fluxes within the ADZ and RDZ, and daytime fluxes were significantly higher (p < 0.05) than nighttime fluxes. The statistical results indicated that N2O emissions from the ADZ were mainly driven by diurnal variations in N loading and the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and those from the RDZ were more influenced by DO, redox potential, and pH. Finally, we determined the proper time for routine monitoring of N2O flux in the two habitats. Our results highlight the importance of considering diverse habitats and diurnal variations when estimating N2O budgets at a whole-lake scale.

Analyzing variation of water inflow to inland lakes under climate change: Integrating deep learning and time series data mining.

The alarming depletion of global inland lakes in recent decades makes it essential to predict water inflow from rivers to lakes (WIRL) trend and unveil the dominant influencing driver, particularly in the context of climate change. The raw time series data contains multiple components (i.e., long-term trend, seasonal periodicity, and random noise), which makes it challenging for traditional machine/deep learning techniques to effectively capture long-term trend information. In this study, a novel FactorConvSTLnet (FCS) method is developed through integrating STL decomposition, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and factorial analysis into a general framework. FCS is more robust in long-term WIRL trend prediction through separating trend information as a modeling predictor, as well as unveiling predominant drivers. FCS is applied to typical inland lakes (the Aral Sea and the Lake Balkhash) in Central Asia, and results indicate that FCS (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.88, root mean squared error = 67m³/s, mean relative error = 10%) outperforms the traditional CNN. Some main findings are: (i) during 1960-1990, reservoir water storage (WSR) was the dominant driver for the two lakes, respectively contributing to 71% and 49%; during 1991-2014 and 2015-2099, evaporation (EVAP) would be the dominant driver, with the contribution of 30% and 47%; (ii) climate change would shift the dominant driver from human activities to natural factors, where EVAP and surface snow amount (SNW) have an increasing influence on WIRL; (iii) compared to SSP1-2.6, the SNW contribution would decrease by 26% under SSP5-8.5, while the EVAP contribution would increase by 9%. The findings reveal the main drivers of shrinkage of the inland lakes and provide the scientific basis for promoting regional ecological sustainability.