Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries.

Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest-induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long-term (44-62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional- and basin-scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing-induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional-scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change-induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep-water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400-600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual- and species-level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change.

Fishing constrains phenotypic responses of marine fish to climate variability.

Fishing and climate change are profoundly impacting marine biota through unnatural selection and exposure to potentially stressful environmental conditions. Their effects, however, are often considered in isolation, and then only at the population level, despite there being great potential for synergistic selection on the individual. We explored how fishing and climate variability interact to affect an important driver of fishery productivity and population dynamics: individual growth rate. We projected that average growth rate would increase as waters warm, a harvest-induced release from density dependence would promote adult growth, and that fishing would increase the sensitivity of somatic growth to temperature. We measured growth increments from the otoliths of 400 purple wrasse (Notolabrius funicola), a site-attached temperate marine reef fish inhabiting an ocean warming hotspot. These were used to generate nearly two decades of annually resolved growth estimates from three populations spanning a period before and after the onset of commercial fishing. We used hierarchical models to partition variation in growth within and between individuals and populations, and attribute it to intrinsic (age, individual-specific) and extrinsic (local and regional climate, fishing) drivers. At the population scale, we detected predictable additive increases in average growth rate associated with warming and a release from density dependence. A fishing-warming synergy only became apparent at the individual scale where harvest resulted in the 50% reduction of thermal growth reaction norm diversity. This phenotypic change was primarily caused by the loss of larger individuals that showed a strong positive response to temperature change after the onset of size-selective harvesting. We speculate that the dramatic loss of individual-level biocomplexity is caused by either inadvertent fisheries selectivity based on behaviour, or the disruption of social hierarchies resulting from the selective harvesting of large, dominant and resource-rich individuals. Whatever the cause, the removal of individuals that display a positive growth response to temperature could substantially reduce species' capacity to adapt to climate change at temperatures well below those previously thought stressful.

Environmental change drives long-term recruitment and growth variation in an estuarine fish.

How individuals respond to environmental change determines the strength and direction of biological processes like recruitment and growth that underpin population productivity. Ascertaining the relative importance of environmental factors can, however, be difficult given the numerous mechanisms through which they affect individuals. This is especially true in dynamic and complex estuarine environments. Here, we develop long-term otolith-based indices of recruitment and growth for estuary perch Percalates colonorum (Bemm River, Australia), to explore the importance of intrinsic (individual, demographic) and extrinsic (hydrologic, climatic, density-dependent) factors in driving estuarine fish productivity. Analyses involved a novel zero-inflated specification of catch curve regression and mixed effects modelling. The 39 years of recruitment and 46 years of growth data, spanning a period of environmental change including severe drought, displayed considerable inter-annual variation. Recruitment success was strongly related to high freshwater inflows during the spawning season, suggesting that these conditions act as spawning cues for adults and potentially provide favourable conditions for larvae. Individuals displayed age-dependent growth, with highest rates observed at younger ages in years characterized by warm temperatures, and to a lesser degree, greater magnitude base inflow conditions. We detected systematic among-year-class growth differences, but these were not attributable to year class strength, suggesting that environmental conditions experienced by individuals as juveniles can have long-lasting effects of greater importance to population productivity than density-dependent growth responses. The primacy of temperature in driving growth variation highlights that under-appreciated climatic variation can affect estuarine fish productivity through direct physiological and indirect food web mechanisms. We predict that climatic warming will promote individual growth in southerly populations of P. colonorum but concurrently limit recruitment due to forecast reductions in spawning season river discharge. Disparate trait responses are likely in other fishes as they respond to multiple and changing environmental drivers, making predictions of future population productivity challenging.