Location and timing of infection drives a sex-bias in Haemoproteus prevalence in a hole-nesting bird.

Sex biases in prevalence of disease are often attributed to intrinsic factors, such as physiological differences while a proximate role of extrinsic factors such as behavioural or ecological differences may be more difficult to establish. We combined large-scale screening for the presence and lineage identity of avian malaria (haemosporidian) parasites, in 1234 collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) with life-history information from each bird to establish the location and timing of infection. We found an overall infection rate of 36.2% ± 0.03 (95% CI) with 25 distinct malaria lineages. Interestingly, first-year breeding males and females had similar infection prevalence while females accrued a significantly higher infection rate than males later in life. The sex difference in infection rate was driven by the most abundant Haemoproteus, lineage, hPHSIB1, while the infection rate of Plasmodium lineages was similar in males and females. Furthermore, when infections were assigned to an apparent transmission location, we found that the sex difference in infection rate trend was driven by lineages transmitted in Europe, more specifically by one lineage (the hPHSIB1), while no similar pattern was found in African lineages. We deduce that the observed infection patterns are likely to be caused by differences in breeding behaviour, with incubating females (and nestling individuals of both sexes) being easy targets for the biting insects that are the vectors of avian malaria parasites. Overall, our results are most consistent with ecological factors rather than intrinsic factors underlying the observed sex-biased infection rate of avian malaria in collared flycatchers.

Fungal Parasite Transmission in a Planktonic Ecosystem Under Light and Nutrient Constraints.

The two main components of the planktonic ecosystem are phytoplankton and zooplankton. Fungal parasites can infect zooplankton and spread between them. In this paper, we construct a dynamic model to describe the spread of fungal parasites among zooplankton. Basic reproduction number for fungal parasite transmission among zooplankton are rigorously derived. The dynamics of this system are analyzed including dissipativity and equilibria. We further explore the effects of ecological factors on population dynamics and the relationship between fungal parasite transmission and phytoplankton blooms. Interestingly, our theoretical and numerical results indicate that a low-light or oligotrophic aquatic environment is helpful in mitigating the transmission of fungal parasites. We also show that fungal parasites on zooplankton can increase phytoplankton biomass and induce blooms.

Evolution of Life Cycles of Nematodes Parasitizing Woody Plants As a Result of Ecological and Phylogenetic Co-Adaptations with Hosts and Vectors.

Fundamental aspects in the evolution of nematodes parasitizing woody plants are reviewed. (1) Nematode faunal lists of natural refugia are useful to predict the risks of opportunistic pathogens becoming true pathogens in the forest and park communities. (2) Nematode composition in natural refugia gives a chance to identify nematode antagonists of insect vectors of dangerous fungal and nematode infections, which can be potentially used as the biological agents for woody plants' protection. (3) Dauers in the ancestors of wood-inhabiting nematodes played a role as a survival stage in the detritus decomposition succession, and they later acquired the functions of dispersal and adaptations for transmission using insect vectors. (4) When inspecting wilted trees, it is necessary to use dauers for diagnostics, as sexually mature nematodes may be absent in tree tissues. (5) Plant parasitic nematodes originated from members of the detritus food web and retained a detritivorous phase in the life cycle as a part of the propagative generation. (6) Vectors in the life cycles of plant parasitic nematodes are inherited from the ancestral detritivorous nematode associations, rather than inserted in the dixenic life cycle of the 'nematode-fungus-plant' association. (7) Despite the significant difference in the duration of the nematode-tree and nematode-vector phases of the life cycle, the actual parasitic nematode specificity is dual: firstly to the vector and secondly to the natural host plant (as demonstrated in phytotests excluding a vector).

Genotyping of Anopheles mosquito blood meals reveals nonrandom human host selection: implications for human-to-mosquito Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

BACKGROUND: Control of malaria parasite transmission can be enhanced by understanding which human demographic groups serve as the infectious reservoirs. Because vector biting can be heterogeneous, some infected individuals may contribute more to human-to-mosquito transmission than others. Infection prevalence peaks in school-age children, but it is not known how often they are fed upon. Genotypic profiling of human blood permits identification of individual humans who were bitten. The present investigation used this method to estimate which human demographic groups were most responsible for transmitting malaria parasites to Anopheles mosquitoes. It was hypothesized that school-age children contribute more than other demographic groups to human-to-mosquito malaria transmission. METHODS: In a region of moderate-to-high malaria incidence in southeastern Malawi, randomly selected households were surveyed to collect human demographic information and blood samples. Blood-fed, female Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled indoors from the same houses. Genomic DNA from human blood samples and mosquito blood meals of human origin was genotyped using 24 microsatellite loci. The resultant genotypes were matched to identify which individual humans were sources of blood meals. In addition, Plasmodium falciparum DNA in mosquito abdomens was detected with polymerase chain reaction. The combined results were used to identify which humans were most frequently bitten, and the P. falciparum infection prevalence in mosquitoes that resulted from these blood meals. RESULTS: Anopheles females selected human hosts non-randomly and fed on more than one human in 9% of the blood meals. Few humans contributed most of the blood meals to the Anopheles vector population. Children ≤ 5 years old were under-represented in mosquito blood meals while older males (31-75 years old) were over-represented. However, the largest number of malaria-infected blood meals was from school age children (6-15 years old). CONCLUSIONS: The results support the hypothesis that humans aged 6-15 years are the most important demographic group contributing to the transmission of P. falciparum to the Anopheles mosquito vectors. This conclusion suggests that malaria control and prevention programmes should enhance efforts targeting school-age children and males.

Snail juvenile growth rate as a rapid predictor of the transmission potential of parasitizing human schistosomes.

Host and parasite traits that are sensitive to environmental perturbations merit special attention in the mitigation of diseases. While life table experiments allow a practical evaluation of variability of these traits with environmental change, they are cost and resource intensive. Here, we use a model snail host-trematode parasite system to test the efficacy of an expeditious alternative. Rapidly changing host traits (such as juvenile growth rate) can be used as effective predictors of parasite transmission potential across a range of environmental factors. This approach can be applied to anticipate epidemiological changes under diverse environmental scenarios.

Experimental evidence that host choice by parasites is age-dependent in a fish-monogenean system.

Host age is known to influence the risk of parasite infection, but there is very little experimental evidence on whether parasites show preference towards potential hosts of a specific age. To investigate how host age affects host choice by parasites, we used the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a fish parasite model and manipulated its gill ectoparasitic monogeneans in mesocosm experiments. Our experimental setting combined three age classes (juvenile, subadult, and adult) of both infected donor hosts and uninfected potential target hosts assigned to each treatment. We predicted that adult target hosts would be more susceptible to parasites than juveniles and adults because they represent high-quality habitat patches. Contrary to our prediction, we found that subadults were more susceptible to parasites than juvenile and adult target hosts. Our models confirmed that variation in target host age influenced parasite choice, suggesting that subadults might represent the most favourable option for parasites regarding a balance between host quality and susceptibility. We provide experimental evidence that host choice by parasites is age-dependent, and that this life-history trait can play a major role in structuring parasite populations.

Unifying spatial and social network analysis in disease ecology.

Social network analysis has achieved remarkable popularity in disease ecology, and is sometimes carried out without investigating spatial heterogeneity. Many investigations into sociality and disease may nevertheless be subject to cryptic spatial variation, so ignoring spatial processes can limit inference regarding disease dynamics. Disease analyses can gain breadth, power and reliability from incorporating both spatial and social behavioural data. However, the tools for collecting and analysing these data simultaneously can be complex and unintuitive, and it is often unclear when spatial variation must be accounted for. These difficulties contribute to the scarcity of simultaneous spatial-social network analyses in disease ecology thus far. Here, we detail scenarios in disease ecology that benefit from spatial-social analysis. We describe procedures for simultaneous collection of both spatial and social data, and we outline statistical approaches that can control for and estimate spatial-social covariance in disease ecology analyses. We hope disease researchers will expand social network analyses to more often include spatial components and questions. These measures will increase the scope of such analyses, allowing more accurate model estimates, better inference of transmission modes, susceptibility effects and contact scaling patterns, and ultimately more effective disease interventions.

Bidirectional interactions between host social behaviour and parasites arise through ecological and evolutionary processes.

An animal's social behaviour both influences and changes in response to its parasites. Here we consider these bidirectional links between host social behaviours and parasite infection, both those that occur from ecological vs evolutionary processes. First, we review how social behaviours of individuals and groups influence ecological patterns of parasite transmission. We then discuss how parasite infection, in turn, can alter host social interactions by changing the behaviour of both infected and uninfected individuals. Together, these ecological feedbacks between social behaviour and parasite infection can result in important epidemiological consequences. Next, we consider the ways in which host social behaviours evolve in response to parasites, highlighting constraints that arise from the need for hosts to maintain benefits of sociality while minimizing fitness costs of parasites. Finally, we consider how host social behaviours shape the population genetic structure of parasites and the evolution of key parasite traits, such as virulence. Overall, these bidirectional relationships between host social behaviours and parasites are an important yet often underappreciated component of population-level disease dynamics and host-parasite coevolution.

Life in the margins: host-parasite relationships in ecological edges.

Transitional zones, such as edge habitat, are key landscapes for investigating biodiversity. "Soft edges" are permeable corridors that hosts can cross, while "hard edges" are impermeable borders that hosts cannot pass. Although pathogen transmission in the context of edges is vital to species conservation, drivers of host-parasite relationships in ecological edges remain poorly understood. Thus, we defined a framework for testing hypotheses of host-parasite interactions in hard and soft edges by (1) characterizing hard and soft edges from both the host and parasite perspectives, (2) predicting the types of parasites that would be successful in each type of edge, and (3) applying our framework to species invasion fronts as an example of host-parasite relationships in a soft edge. Generally, we posited that parasites in soft edges are more likely to be negatively affected by habitat fragmentation than their hosts because they occupy higher trophic levels but parasite transmission would benefit from increased host connectivity. Parasites along hard edges, however, are at higher risk of local extinction due to host population perturbations with limited opportunity for parasite recolonization. We then used these characteristics to predict functional traits that would lead to parasite success along soft and hard edges. Finally, we applied our framework to invasive species fronts to highlight predictions regarding host connectivity and parasite traits in soft edges. We anticipate that our work will promote a more complete discussion of habitat connectivity using a common framework and stimulate empirical research into host-parasite relationships within ecological edges and transitional zones.

Smart carnivores think twice: Red fox delays scavenging on conspecific carcasses to reduce parasite risk.

The recent SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has highlighted the need to prevent emerging and re-emerging diseases, which means that we must approach the study of diseases from a One Health perspective. The study of pathogen transmission in wildlife is challenging, but it is unquestionably key to understand how epidemiological interactions occur at the wildlife-domestic-human interface. In this context, studying parasite avoidance behaviours may provide essential insights on parasite transmission, host-parasite coevolution, and energy flow through food-webs. However, the strategies of avoiding trophically transmitted parasites in mammalian carnivores have received little scientific attention. Here, we explore the behaviour of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and other mammalian carnivores at conspecific and heterospecific carnivore carcasses using videos recorded by camera traps. We aim to determine 1) the factors influencing the probability of foxes to practice cannibalism, and 2) whether the scavenging behaviour of foxes differ when facing conspecific vs. heterospecific carcasses. We found that red foxes were generally reluctant to consume mesocarnivore carrion, especially of conspecifics. When recorded, consumption by foxes was delayed several days (heterospecific carcasses) or weeks (conspecific carcasses) after carcass detection. Other mammalian scavengers showed a similar pattern. Also, meat-borne parasite transmission from wild carnivore carcasses to domestic dogs and cats was highly unlikely. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption that cannibalistic or intra-specific scavenging is a major transmission route for Trichinella spp. and other meat-borne parasites, especially for the red fox. Overall, our results suggest that the feeding decisions of scavengers are probably shaped by two main contrasting forces, namely the nutritional reward provided by carrion of phylogenetically similar species and the risk of acquiring meat-borne parasites shared with these species. This study illustrates how the detailed monitoring of carnivore behaviour is essential to assess the epidemiological role of these hosts in the maintenance and dispersion of parasites of public and animal health relevance.

Heterogeneity in helminth infections: factors influencing aggregation in a simple host-parasite system.

The almost universally-occurring aggregated distributions of helminth burdens in host populations have major significance for parasite population ecology and evolutionary biology, but the mechanisms generating heterogeneity remain poorly understood. For the direct life cycle monogenean Discocotyle sagittata infecting rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, variables potentially influencing aggregation can be analysed individually. This study was based at a fish farm where every host individual becomes infected by D. sagittata during each annual transmission period. Worm burdens were examined in one trout population maintained in isolation for 9 years, exposed to self-contained transmission. After this year-on-year recruitment, prevalence was 100% with intensities 10-2628, mean 576, worms per host. Parasite distribution, amongst hosts with the same age and environmental experience, was highly aggregated with variance to mean ratio 834 and negative binomial parameter, k, 0.64. The most heavily infected 20% of fish carried around 80% of the total adult parasite population. Aggregation develops within the first weeks post-infection; hosts typically carried intensities of successive age-specific cohorts that were consistent for that individual, such that heavily-infected individuals carried high numbers of all parasite age classes. Results suggest that host factors alone, operating post-infection, are sufficient to generate strongly overdispersed parasite distributions, rather than heterogeneity in exposure and initial invasion.

Evaluation of direct and indirect transmission of fungal spores in ants.

Parasite transmission plays a central role in disease dynamics, but little is known about the extent to which direct and indirect transmission contributes to disease dynamics in group-living animals. Quantifying transmission by contact or exposure is challenging, as direct measurements of pathogen transmission are often impractical and individual behaviour is largely unknown. Here, we attempt to tackle these twin problems through the use of a generalist entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium robertsii to study direct and indirect transmission in the black carpenter ant Camponotus pennsylvanicus. We provide evidence that large quantities of fungal conidia (spores) can be acquired over time on the ant's cuticle and significant amounts are shed into the environment, allowing indirect transmission. Unexposed ants in the nest can be infected either through direct (i.e. social contacts) or indirect (i.e. acquisition from the environment) transmission, potentially leading to the same mortality as if all individuals of a nest would have been directly exposed to the pathogen. Our findings highlight the importance of indirect transmission routes in a species of social living organisms.

Urinary Schistosomosis in Patients of Rural Medical Health Centers in Kwale County, Kenya.

Urinary schistosomosis is a serious public health problem prevalent in low-income rural regions of sub-Saharan Africa, including coastal part of Kenya. Praziquantel administration to school-aged children is the prevailing tool of schistosomosis control in these regions. The aim of our study was to find out if this control strategy can lead to interruption of parasite trasmission and disease elimination. During February and March 2018, the occurrence of urinary schistosomosis in volunteers of primary health care facilities in Kwale County, Kenya was examined and the occurrence of infected intermediate hosts Bulinus globosus in local water resources was monitored. Participants completed a questionnaire concerning source of water for household purposes, type of housing and health status and were asked to provide urine samples. Diagnosis of urinary schistosomosis was established by detection of Schistosoma haematobium eggs in urine specimens microscopically, using filtration method. Infected B. globosus snails were detected using cercaria shedding tests. From the hemolymph of snails, prepatent period of infection was identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The presence of urinary schistosomosis was detected in 15.07 % (69 out of 451) of study participants. Cercaria shedding test was positive in 2 particular sites of river Pengo and Tsanganyiko. Genetic material (haemolymph) of 68 B. globosus snails tested by DraI PCR revealed 7 Schistosoma spp. positive samples. Six of seven DraI positive snails were infected by S. haematobium, as it was detected by Sh110/SmS1 PCR. The study revealed, that the disease was still present in the region studied and the transmission was not interrupted. The rate of infection was significantly influenced by the water supplies used for household purposes and the type of housing.

Trematode cercariae as prey for zooplankton: effect on fitness traits of predators.

Removal of parasite free-living stages by predators has previously been suggested an important factor controlling parasite transmission in aquatic habitats. Experimental studies of zooplankton predation on macroparasite larvae are, however, scarce. We tested whether trematode cercariae, which are often numerous in shallow waters, are suitable prey for syntopic zooplankters. Feeding rates and survival of freshwater cyclopoids (Megacyclops viridis, Macrocyclops distinctus), calanoids (Arctodiaptomus paulseni), cladocerans (Sida crystallina) and rotifers Asplanchna spp., fed with cercariae of Diplostomum pseudospathaceum, a common fish trematode, were studied. In additional long-term experiments, we studied reproduction of cyclopoids fed with cercariae. All tested zooplankton species consumed cercariae. The highest feeding rates were observed for cyclopoids (33 ± 12 cercariae ind-1 h-1), which actively reproduced (up to one egg clutch day-1) when fed ad libitum with cercariae. Their reproductive characteristics did not change significantly with time, indicating that cercariae supported cyclopoids' dietary needs. Mortality of rotifers and cladocerans was high (25-28% individuals) when exposed to cercariae in contrast to cyclopoids and calanoids (<2%). Cercariae clogged the filtration apparatus of cladocerans and caused internal injuries in predatory rotifers, which ingested cercariae. Observed trophic links between common freshwater zooplankters and cercariae may significantly influence food webs and parasite transmission in lentic ecosystems.

Two different strategies of host manipulation allow parasites to persist in intermediate-definitive host systems.

Trophically transmitted parasites start their development in an intermediate host, before they finish the development in their definitive host when the definitive host preys on the intermediate host. In intermediate-definitive host systems, two strategies of host manipulation have been evolved: increasing the rate of transmission to the definitive host by increasing the chance that the definitive host will prey on the intermediate host, or increasing the lifespan of the parasite in the intermediate host by decreasing the predation chance when the intermediate host is not yet infectious. As the second strategy is less well studied than the first, it is unknown under what conditions each of these strategies is prevailed and evolved. We analysed the effect of both strategies on the presence of parasites in intermediate-definitive host systems with a structured population model. We show that the parasite can increase the parameter space where it can persist in the intermediate-definitive host system using one of these two strategies of host manipulation. We found that when the intermediate host or the definitive host has life-history traits that allow the definitive host to reach large population densities, that is high reproduction rate of the intermediate host or high conversion efficiency of the definitive host (efficiency at which the uninfected definitive host converts caught intermediate hosts into offspring), respectively, evolving manipulation to decrease the predation chance of the intermediate host will be more beneficial than manipulation to increase the predation chance to enhance transmission. Furthermore, manipulation to decrease the predation chance of the intermediate host results in higher population densities of infected intermediate hosts than manipulation that increases the predation chance to enhance transmission. Our study shows that host manipulation in early stages of the parasite development to decrease predation might be a more frequently evolved way of host manipulation than is currently assumed.

Transmission risk predicts avoidance of infected conspecifics in Trinidadian guppies.

Associating with conspecifics afflicted with infectious diseases increases the risk of becoming infected, but engaging in avoidance behaviour incurs the cost of lost social benefits. Across systems, infected individuals vary in the transmission risk they pose, so natural selection should favour risk-sensitive avoidance behaviour that optimally balances the costs and benefits of sociality. Here, we use the guppy Poecilia reticulata-Gyrodactylus turnbulli host-parasite system to test the prediction that individuals avoid infected conspecifics in proportion to the transmission risk they pose. In dichotomous choice tests, uninfected fish avoided both the chemical and visual cues, presented separately, of infected conspecifics only in the later stages of infection. A transmission experiment indicated that this avoidance behaviour accurately tracked transmission risk (quantified as both the speed at which transmission occurs and the number of parasites transmitting) through the course of infection. Together, these findings reveal that uninfected hosts can use redundant cues across sensory systems to inform dynamic risk-sensitive avoidance behaviour. This correlation between the transmission risk posed by infected individuals and the avoidance response they elicit has implications for the evolutionary ecology of infectious disease, and its explicit inclusion may improve the ability of epidemic models to predict disease spread.

Parasites in space and time: a novel method to assess and illustrate host-searching behaviour of trematode cercariae.

The transmission from one host to another constitutes a challenging obstacle for parasites and is a key determinant of their fitness. Due to their complex life histories involving several different hosts, the free-living dispersal stages (cercariae) of digenean trematodes show a huge diversity in morphology and behaviour. On a finer scale, we still have an extremely limited understanding of the inter- and intraspecific variation in transmission strategies of many trematode species. Here, we present a novel method to study the movement patterns of cercariae of four New Zealand trematode species (Coitocaecum parvum, Maritrema poulini, Apatemon sp. and Aporocotylid sp. I.) via automated video tracking. This approach allows to quantify parameters otherwise not measurable and clearly illustrates the individual strategies of parasites to search for their respective target hosts. Cercariae that seek out an evasive fish target hosts showed higher swimming speeds (acceleration and velocity) and travelled further distances, compared with species searching for high-density crustacean hosts. Automated video tracking provides a powerful tool for such detailed analyses of parasites' host-searching strategies and can enhance our understanding of complex host-parasite interactions, ranging from parasite community structure to the transmission of potential disease agents.

The role of spore morphology in horizontal transmission of a microsporidium of Daphnia.

The microsporidian parasite Hamiltosporidium tvaerminnensis can infect Daphnia magna both horizontally (through environmental spores) and vertically (through parthenogenetic and sexually produced eggs). The spores of H. tvaerminnensis come in three distinguishable morphologies, which are thought to have different roles in the transmission of the parasite. In this study, we examined the role of the two most common spore morphologies (i.e. oval-shaped spores and pear-shaped spores) in horizontal transmission of H. tvaerminnensis. To this end, we infected hosts with solutions consisting of either mostly oval- or mostly pear-shaped spores, and quantified infection rates, parasite-induced host mortality and mean number of parasite spores produced per host. We found that spore morphology by itself did not influence infection rates and parasite-induced host mortality. Instead, host clone and parasite isolate interacted with spore morphology in shaping infection outcome and mortality. Thus, there appear to be strong genotype-by-genotype (G × G) interactions in this system. While there is no dispute that H. tvaerminnensis can transmit both vertically and horizontally, our findings do not support theoretical predictions that different spore morphologies hold different roles in horizontal transmission of H. tvaerminnensis.

High density of fox and cat faeces in kitchen gardens and resulting rodent exposure to Echinococcus multilocularis and Toxoplasma gondii.

The faeces of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus), and the domestic cat, Felis catus (Linnaeus), can be responsible for spreading eggs of Echinococcus multilocularis Leuckart, 1863 and oocysts of Toxoplasma gondii (Nicolle et Manceaux, 1908) into the environment. The accidental ingestion of these eggs or oocysts, through consumption of raw fruits or vegetables grown in or in contact with contaminated soil, can lead to alveolar echinococcosis (AE) or toxoplasmosis in humans. The present study provides a quantitative assessment of the faecal deposition by foxes and cats in kitchen gardens where fruits and vegetables are grown and its consequences for zoonosis transmission. The density of definitive host faeces is considered as one of the main factors in infection risk for intermediate hosts. The density of fox and cat faeces, as well as the prevalence of both AE and toxoplasmosis in rodent populations (contaminated by ingestion of eggs or oocysts), were compared within and outside kitchen gardens. Our results showed that the mean density of fox faeces did not significantly differ between kitchen gardens and habitat edges (0.29 ± 0.04 faeces/m2 vs 0.22 ± 0.02 faeces/m2), the latter being known as an area of high fox faeceal densities. The density of cat faeces was significantly higher within the kitchen garden than outside (0.86 ± 0.22 faeces/m2 vs 0.04 ± 0.02 faeces/m2). The sampled kitchen gardens might therefore be considered as possible hotspots for both fox and cat defecation. Of the 130 rodents trapped, 14% were infected by at least one species of fox or cat intestinal parasite. These rodents were significantly more often infected when they were exposed to a kitchen garden. These results suggest that the deposit of fox and cat faeces in kitchen gardens would significantly impact the risk of human exposure to E. multilocularis and T. gondii. and should be prevented using effective means.

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

BACKGROUND: There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.