Insights for clinical management from the real-life data of the centralized West of Scotland biliary cancer clinic.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing of novel therapeutics for the treatment of Biliary Tract Cancers (BTC), and the need to assess their socio-economic impacts for national licence approvals, it is as important as ever to have real-life data in national populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an audit of the first 2 year-activity (Sep 2019-Sep 2021) of the centralized West-of-Scotland-BTC clinic. 122 patients accessed the service, including 68% with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 27% with gallbladder cancer (GBC), and 5% with ampulla of Vater carcinoma with biliary phenotype (AVC). Median age at diagnosis was 66 (28-84), with 30% of newly diagnosed patients being younger than 60 years-old. Thirty-five cases (29%) underwent surgery, followed by adjuvant-chemotherapy in 66%. 60% had recurrent disease (80% with distant relapse). Sixty-four patients (58%) started first-line Systemic-AntiCancer-Treatment (SACT). Of these, 37% received second line SACT, the majority of which had iCCA and GBC. Thirty-% of those who progressed received third line SACT. CONCLUSIONS: About 30% of BTC were eligible for curative surgery. Fifty-eight and twenty% of the overall cohort of advanced BTC patients received first and second line SACT. Our data suggest that reflex genomic profiling may not be cost-effective until molecularly driven strategies are limited to second line setting.

How do we conduct a national transfusion related lookback program?

BACKGROUND: Lookback investigations are conducted by blood services when a risk of transmission of infection from a donor to a recipient has been identified. They involve tracing transfusion recipients and offering them testing for the relevant infectious agent. Results are relayed to the recipient to provide reassurance that there has been no transmission or to ensure appropriate treatment and care if required, and blood services are able to learn lessons from the planning, delivery, and outcomes of the investigation. A national lookback exercise was conducted in Scotland following the introduction of a test to identify occult hepatitis B infection, as recommended by the UK Advisory Committee for the Safety of Blood, Tissues and Organs (SaBTO) in 2021. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This paper outlines the development and delivery of a national lookback program. It discusses the logistical, economic, ethical, regulatory, and scientific issues that were considered during the planning and delivery of the lookback exercise. RESULTS: Development and delivery of a national lookback required robust governance, engagement of all relevant stakeholders and a shared understanding of aims, effective communication, systems, resources, limitations, and project management. Outcomes included a high testing uptake, low levels of reported anxiety, and a comprehensive data set. CONCLUSION: Key aspects for delivery of a successful large-scale lookback program include a patient-centered approach, clear and accessible communication, and whole-systems multiagency collaboration. Major challenges include stakeholder engagement and capacity.

Antidepressant and antipsychotic prescribing in patients with type 2 diabetes in Scotland: A time-trend analysis from 2004 to 2021.

AIMS: Prescribing of antidepressant and antipsychotic drugs in general populations has increased in the United Kingdom, but prescribing trends in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have not previously been investigated. The aim of this study was to describe time trends in annual prevalence of antidepressant and antipsychotic drug prescribing in adult patients with T2D. METHODS: We conducted repeated annual cross-sectional analysesof a population-based diabetes registry with 99% coverage, derived from primary and secondary care data in Scotland, from 2004 to 2021. For each cross-sectional calendar year time period, we calculated the prevalence of antidepressant and antipsychotic drug prescribing, overall and by sociodemographic characteristics and drug subtype. RESULTS: The number of patients with a T2D diagnosis in Scotland increased from 161 915 in 2004 to 309 288 in 2021. Prevalence of antidepressant and antipsychotic prescribing in patients with T2D increased markedly between 2004 and 2021 (from 20.0 per 100 person-years to 33.3 per 100 person-years and from 2.8 per 100 person-years to 4.7 per 100 person-years, respectively). We observed this pattern for all drug subtypes except for first-generation antipsychotics, prescribing of which remained largely stable. The degree of increase, as well as the overall prevalence of prescribing, differed by age, sex, socioeconomic status and subtype of drug class. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a marked increase in the prevalence of antidepressant and antipsychotic prescribing in patients with T2D in Scotland. Further research should identify the reasons for this increase, including indication for use and the extent to which this reflects increases in incident prescribing rather than increased duration.

Postpartum haemorrhage and risk of cardiovascular disease in later life: A population-based record linkage cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) and subsequent cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study, using record linkage between Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank (AMND) and Scottish healthcare data sets. SETTING: Grampian region, Scotland. POPULATION: A cohort of 70 904 women who gave birth after 24 weeks of gestation in the period 1986-2016. METHODS: We used extended Cox regression models to investigate the association between having had one or more occurrences of PPH in any (first or subsequent) births (exposure) and subsequent cardiovascular disease, adjusted for sociodemographic, medical, and pregnancy and birth-related factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular disease identified from the prescription of selected cardiovascular medications, hospital discharge records or death from cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: In our cohort of 70 904 women (with 124 795 birth records), 25 177 women (36%) had at least one PPH. Compared with not having a PPH, having at least one PPH was associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, as defined above, in the first year after birth (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.51-2.53; p < 0.001). The association was attenuated over time, but strong evidence of increased risk remained at 2-5 years (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.30, P < 0.001) and at 6-15 years after giving birth (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with women who have never had a PPH, women who have had at least one episode of PPH are twice as likely to develop cardiovascular disease in the first year after birth, and some increased risk persists for up to 15 years.

Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-informed adaptation into temperature-related mortality projections under climate change.

The extent to which populations will successfully adapt to continued warming temperatures will be a crucial factor in determining future health burdens. Previous health impact assessments of future temperature-related mortality burdens mostly disregard adaptation or make simplistic assumptions. We apply a novel evidence-based approach to model adaptation that takes into account the fact that adaptation potential is likely to vary at different temperatures. Temporal changes in age-specific mortality risk associated with low and high temperatures were characterised for Scotland between 1974 and 2018 using temperature-specific RR ratios to reflect past changes in adaptive capacity. Three scenarios of future adaption were constructed consistent with the SSPs. These adaptation projections were combined with climate and population projections to estimate the mortality burdens attributable to high (above the 90th percentile of the historical temperature distribution) and low (below the 10th percentile) temperatures up to 2080 under five RCP-SSP scenarios. A decomposition analysis was conducted to attribute the change in the mortality burden into adaptation, climate and population. In 1980-2000, the heat burden (21 deaths/year) was smaller than the colder burden (312 deaths/year). In the 2060-2080 period, the heat burden was projected to be the highest under RCP8.5-SSP5 (1285 deaths/year), and the cold burden was the highest under RCP4.5-SSP4 (320 deaths/year). The net burden was lowest under RCP2.6-SSP1 and highest under RCP8.5-SSP5. Improvements in adaptation was the largest factor reducing the cold burden under RCP2.6-SSP1 whilst temperature increase was the biggest factor contributing to the high heat burdens under RCP8.5-SSP5. Ambient heat will become a more important health determinant than cold in Scotland under all climate change and socio-economic scenarios. Adaptive capacity will not fully counter projected increases in heat deaths, underscoring the need for more ambitious climate mitigation measures for Scotland and elsewhere.

A review of the enhanced CJD surveillance feasibility study in the elderly in Scotland, UK.

BACKGROUND: Variant Creutzfeldt - Jakob disease (vCJD) arose from dietary contamination with bovine-spongiform-encephalopathy (BSE). Because of concerns that vCJD-cases might be missed in the elderly, a feasibility study of enhanced CJD surveillance on the elderly was begun in 2016. Recruitment was lower than predicted. We describe a review of the challenges encountered in that study: identification, referral, and recruitment, and the effects of actions based on the results of that review. METHODS: Review was conducted in 2017. Study data for all eligible cases identified and referred from one participating service (Anne Rowling clinic (ARC)) was curated and anonymised in a bespoke database. A questionnaire was sent out to all the clinicians in medicine of the elderly, psychiatry of old age and neurology (including ARC) specialties in NHS Lothian, exploring possible reasons for low recruitment. RESULTS: Sixty-eight cases were referred from the ARC (March 2016-September 2017): 25% were recruited. Most cases had been referred because of diagnostic uncertainty. No difference was seen between those recruited and the non-recruited, apart from age and referrer. Twelve of 60 participating clinicians completed the questionnaire: only 4 had identified eligible cases. High workload, time constraints, forgetting to refer, unfamiliarity with the eligibility criteria, and the rarity of eligible cases, were some of the reasons given. Suggestions as to how to improve referral of eligible cases included: regular email reminders, feedback to referrers, improving awareness of the study, visible presence of the study team, and integration of the study with other research oriented services. These results were used to increase recruitment but without success. CONCLUSION: Recruitment was lower than predicted. Actions taken following a review at 21 months did not lead to significant improvement; recruitment remained low, with many families/patients declining to take part (75%). In assessing the failure to improve recruitment, two factors need to be considered. Firstly, the initial referral rate was expected to be higher because of existing patients already known to the clinical services, with later referrals being only newly presenting patients. Secondly, the unplanned absence of a dedicated study nurse. Searching digital records/anonymised derivatives to identify eligible patients could be explored.

Implementation and evaluation of a SARI surveillance system in a tertiary hospital in Scotland in 2021/2022.

OBJECTIVE: To set up and evaluate a new surveillance system for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study and evaluation of surveillance system. METHODS: The SARI case definition comprised patients aged 16 years or over with an acute respiratory illness presentation requiring testing for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and hospital admission. Data were collected from SARI cases by research nurses in one tertiary teaching hospital using a bespoke data collection tool from November 2021 to May 2022. Descriptive analyses of SARI cases were carried out. The following attributes of the surveillance system were evaluated according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines: stability, data quality, timeliness, positive predictive value, representativeness, simplicity, acceptability and flexibility. RESULTS: The final surveillance dataset comprised 1163 records, with cases peaking in ISO week 50 (week ending 19/12/2021). The system produced a stable stream of surveillance data, with the proportion of SARI records with sufficient information for effective surveillance increasing from 65.4% during the first month to 87.0% over time. Similarly, the proportion where data collection was completed promptly was low initially, but increased to 50%-65% during later periods. CONCLUSION: SARI surveillance was successfully established in one hospital, but for a national system, additional sentinel hospital sites across Scotland, with flexibility to ensure consistently high data completeness and timeliness are needed. Data collection should be automated where possible, and demands on clinicians minimised. SARI surveillance should be embedded and resourced as part of a national respiratory surveillance strategy.

Using digital technology to reduce drug-related harms: a targeted service users' perspective of the Digital Lifelines Scotland programme.

BACKGROUND: Deaths due to drug overdose are an international issue, causing an estimated 128,000 global deaths in 2019. Scotland has the highest rate of drug-related deaths in Europe, with those in the most deprived areas at greater risk than those in affluent areas. There is a paucity of research on digital solutions, particularly from the perspective of those who use drugs who additionally access harm reduction and homelessness support services. The Digital Lifelines Scotland programme (DLS) provides vulnerable people who use/d drugs with digital devices to connect with services. METHODS: This paper reports on the evaluation of the DLS from the perspective of service users who accessed services for those at risk of drug-related harms. A mixed methods approach was used including an online-survey (n = 19) and semi-structured interviews (n = 21). Survey data were analysed descriptively and interview data through inductive coding, informed by the Technology, People, Organisations and Macroenvironmental factors (TPOM) framework, to investigate the use, access, and availability of devices, and people's experiences and perceptions of them. RESULTS: Most participants lived in social/council housing (63.2%, n = 12), many lived alone (68.4%, n = 13). They were mainly over 40 years old and lived in a city. Participants described a desire for data privacy, knowledge, and education, and placed a nascent social and personal value on digital devices. Participants pointed to the person-centred individuality of the service provision as one of the reasons to routinely engage with services. Service users experienced an increased sense of value and there was a palpable sense of community, connection and belonging developed through the programme, including interaction with services and devices. CONCLUSIONS: This paper presents a unique perspective which documents the experiences of service users on the DLS. Participants illustrated a desire for life improvement and a collective and individual feeling of responsibility towards themselves and digital devices. Digital inclusion has the potential to provide avenues by which service users can safely and constructively access services and society to improve outcomes. This paper provides a foundation to further cultivate the insight of service users on digital solutions in this emerging area.

Knowledge of vitamin D and practices of vitamin D supplementation in a Scottish adult population: A cross-sectional study.

Background: Vitamin D supplementation practices (dose and frequency) are relatively unknown in the Scottish population, with no recent up-to-date data available. Reassessing current knowledge, practices, and awareness of vitamin D supplementation following a national health campaign in 2020 by Food Standards Scotland on vitamin D is warranted. Aim: This article aims to present the knowledge and awareness of vitamin D, and current vitamin D supplementation practices in adults living in Scotland. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed between June and July 2022 using an online survey adapted from previous work on assessing knowledge of vitamin D in adults. Participants aged 18+, living in Scotland for ≥6 months were eligible to participate. Scores for knowledge were calculated as a percentage. Univariate associations between demographic and supplement use were established by χ2-test and logistic regression performed to predict factors associated with daily vitamin D intake. Results: Four hundred and three participants (72.7% female), mean age 36.4 (±14.2 years), completed the study. Awareness of vitamin D was very high (99.5%) but the mean overall knowledge score was poor (31.4 ± 15.3%), with those with a university degree more likely to have knowledge scores at/above the mean compared with those with lower levels of education, χ2(1, N = 393) 10.7, p = 0.001, odds ratio (OR) = 2.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-2.7). Finally, 64.3% took vitamin D supplements, of which 37.5% took them daily during winter months, with only 7.4% taking the recommended daily dose. Conclusion: The current study highlights the need to improve both knowledge of vitamin D and practices of vitamin D supplementation during the autumn and winter months in Scotland.

Medical aspects of the tour by Martin Martin (c 1660-1719) of the Western and Northern Islands of Scotland, Circa 1695.

This review is based investigations on the Western Isles, Scotland, by Martin Martin, a notable Scottish Highlander, academic and medical doctor, of the 17th-18th century. His extensive observations of the geography and peoples of these Isles were recorded in his books, "On the Description of the Western Islands of Scotland Circa 1695" and "A Late Voyage to St Kilda". In these books and subsequent papers there were some noteworthy observations on the occurrence (and as he says non-occurrence) of "epidemical" diseases and conditions afflicting the peoples of The Isle of Skye and the Western Isles of Scotland in this period, and these are discussed in this review. Martin also gives details of a wide variety of remedies that were observed or reported by inhabitants around that time. Some of these remedies are interesting for their relevance to the period but others are of doubtful merit. These are reviewed here more for their significance in the understanding of the diseases and conditions of humans and even in some cases animals at that time. Introductions by Charles Withers and R.W. Munro, 11 and re-assessments of the contributions of Martin and colleagues of that time have given insight into the health and condition of peoples of the Western Isles of Scotland(the Occidental) (Martin 1695; Martin 1716).

Increase of Severe Pulmonary Infections in Adults Caused by M1UK Streptococcus pyogenes, Central Scotland, UK.

We characterized the epidemiology, host-pathogen characteristics, and outcomes of severe adult pulmonary Streptococcus pyogenes infections that coincided with a high community caseload in central Scotland, UK. The pulmonary infections had high illness and death rates and were associated with socioeconomic deprivation, influenza A co-infection, and the M1UK lineage of S. pyogenes.

Test, evidence, transition projects in Scotland: developing the evidence needed for transition of effective interventions in cancer care from innovation into mainstream practice.

BACKGROUND: A robust evidence base is required to assist healthcare commissioners and providers in selecting effective and sustainable approaches to improve cancer diagnosis and treatment. Such evidence can be difficult to build, given the fast-paced and highly pressured nature of healthcare delivery, the absence of incentives, and the presence of barriers in conducting pragmatic yet robust research evaluations. Cancer Research UK (CRUK) has played an active part in building the evidence base through its funding of programmes to identify, evaluate and scale-up innovative approaches across the UK. The aim of this paper is to describe and explain the research design and intended approach and activities for two cancer services improvement projects in Scotland funded by CRUK. METHODS: A hybrid effectiveness-implementation study design will assess both the efficiency of the new pathways and their implementation strategies, with the aim of generating knowledge for scale-up. A range of implementation, service and clinical outcomes will be assessed as determined by the projects' Theories of Change (ToCs). A naturalistic case study approach will enable in-depth exploration of context and process, and the collection and synthesis of data from multiple sources including routine datasets, patient and staff surveys, in-depth interviews and observational and other data. The evaluations are informed throughout by a patient/public representatives' group, and by small group discussions with volunteer cancer patients. DISCUSSION: Our approach has been designed to provide a holistic understanding of how (well) the improvement projects work (in relation to their anticipated outcomes), and how they interact with their wider contexts. The evaluations will help identify barriers, facilitators, and unanticipated consequences that can impact scalability, sustainability and spread. By opting for a pragmatic, participatory evaluation research design, we hope to inform strategies for scaling up successful innovations while addressing challenges in a targeted manner.

Type 1 diabetes incidence in Scotland between 2006 and 2019.

AIMS: To describe type 1 diabetes incidence in Scotland between 2006 and 2019. METHODS: Repeated annual cross-sectional studies of type 1 diabetes incidence were conducted. Incident cases were identified from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a population-based register of people with diagnosed diabetes derived from primary and secondary care data. Mid-year population estimates for Scotland were used as the denominator to calculate annual incidence with stratification by age and sex. Joinpoint regression was used to investigate whether incidence changed during the study period. Age and sex-specific type 1 diabetes incidence over the whole time period was estimated by quintile of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based measure, in which Q1 and Q5 denote the most and least deprived fifths of the population, respectively, with quasi-Poisson regression used to compare incidence for Q5 compared to Q1. RESULTS: The median (IQR) age of the study population of 14,564 individuals with incident type 1 diabetes was 24.1 (12.3-42.4) years, 56% were men, 23% were in Q1 and 16% were in Q5. Incidence of T1DM was higher in men than women overall (at around 22 and 17 per 100,000, respectively) and in under 15 year olds (approximately 40 per 100,000 in both sexes) than other age groups and was similar across the study period in all strata. There was an inverse association between socio-economic status and type 1 diabetes incidence for 15-29, 30-49 and 50+ year olds [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for Q5 compared to Q1; IRR (95% CI) 0.52 (0.47-0.58), 0.68 (0.61-0.76) and 0.53(0.46-0.61), respectively] but not for under 15 year olds [1.02 (0.92-1.12)]. CONCLUSION: Incidence of type 1 diabetes varies by age, sex and socio-economic status and has remained approximately stable from 2006 to 2019 in Scotland.

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Peripheral and Non-Aortocaval Vascular Trauma in Scotland 2011 - 2018.

OBJECTIVE: This population based study aimed to examine the demographics, mechanisms, and outcomes of patients in Scotland suffering peripheral and non-aortocaval vascular trauma between 2011 and 2018. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted using prospectively collected data derived from the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2018. Peripheral and non-aortocaval vascular trauma patients were identified using Abbreviated Injury Severity (AIS) codes. Demographics, mechanisms, types of injury, severity, and outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: Of 30 831 patients admitted with trauma to Scottish hospitals, 569 (1.8%) patients suffered a vascular injury during the eight year study period with 275 (0.9%) patients sustaining a peripheral or non-aortocaval vascular injury. There were 221 (80%) men and 54 (20%) women with a median (range) age of 39 (14 - 88) years. Blunt trauma was responsible for 179 (65%) injuries, of which road traffic accidents were the most common mechanism. A further 67 (24%) injuries were due to penetrating trauma, of which assault was the most common cause. The most common injury was to abdominal arteries (e.g., hepatic, renal, splenic [n = 83]) with an associated mortality rate of 17%. The median (range) Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 16 (4 - 75). Sixteen (6%) patients died in the Emergency Department (ED). Two hundred and twenty-seven (83%) patients were taken to theatre during their admission with a 30 day peri-operative mortality rate of 10%, compared with an overall mortality rate of 16%. Injuries to an abdominal vein (e.g., portal, renal, splenic, superior mesenteric) had the highest number of associated deaths, with 11 (32%) of 34 cases resulting in a fatality. CONCLUSION: There is a low incidence of vascular trauma in Scotland. Blunt force was responsible for more vascular injuries than penetrating trauma. Patients with peripheral and non-aortocaval vascular injuries are likely to be severely injured and suffer a high mortality rate.

Policy actors' perceptions of public participation to tackle health inequalities in Scotland: a paradox?

BACKGROUND: Health inequalities are persistent and widening with transformative policy change needed. Radically shifting policy to tackle upstream causes of inequalities is likely to require public participation to provide a mandate, evidence and to address questions of co-design, implementation and acceptability. The aim of this paper is to explore perceptions among policy actors on why and how the public should be involved in policymaking for health inequalities. METHODS: In 2019-2020, we conducted exploratory, in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 21 Scottish policy actors from a range of public sector bodies and agencies and third sector organisations that work in, or across, health and non-health sectors. Data were analysed thematically and used to examine implications for the development of participatory policymaking. RESULTS: Policy actors viewed public participation in policymaking as intrinsically valuable for democratic reasons, but the main, and more challenging, concern was with how it could affect positive policy change. Participation was seen as instrumental in two overlapping ways: as evidence to improve policies to tackle health inequalities and to achieve public acceptance for implementing more transformative policies. However, our analysis suggests a paradox: whilst policy actors place importance on the instrumental value of public participation, they simultaneously believe the public hold views about health inequalities that would prevent transformative change. Finally, despite broad agreement on the need to improve public participation in policy development, policy actors were uncertain about how to make the necessary changes due to conceptual, methodological and practical challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Policy actors believe in the importance of public participation in policy to address health inequalities for intrinsic and instrumental reasons. Yet, there is an evident tension between seeing public participation as a route to upstream policies and a belief that public views might be misinformed, individualistic, short-term or self-interested and doubts about how to make public participation meaningful. We lack good insight into what the public think about policy solutions to health inequalities. We propose that research needs to shift from describing the problem to focusing more on potential solutions and outline a potential way forward to undertake effective public participation to tackle health inequalities.

A UK cost-effectiveness analysis of trifluridine/tipiracil for heavily pretreated metastatic gastroesophageal cancers.

Background: The current work was designed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of trifluridine/tipiracil (T/T) versus best supportive care (BSC) for patients with advanced stage or metastatic gastroesophageal cancer (mGC) from a UK perspective. Materials & methods: A partitioned survival analysis was undertaken using data from the phase III TAGS trial. A jointly fitted lognormal model was selected for overall survival and individual generalized gamma models were chosen for progression-free survival and time-to-treatment-discontinuation. The primary outcome was the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to investigate uncertainty. Results: Compared with BSC, T/T was associated with a cost per QALY gained of £37,907. Conclusion: T/T provides a cost-effective treatment option for mGC in the UK setting.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm.

AIMS: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata. METHODS: Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging). RESULTS: 22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Antimicrobial usage and resistance in scottish dairy herds: a survey of farmers' knowledge, behaviours and attitudes.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to global health. Understanding how antimicrobials are used on dairy farms and stakeholder beliefs relating to their use is essential to ensure responsible antimicrobial usage (AMU) to tackle the emergence of AMR. This study explored Scottish dairy farmers' knowledge about the meaning of AMR and antimicrobial activity, behaviour and practices related to farm AMU and attitudes towards AMR mitigation. An online survey was designed based on the findings of two focus groups and was completed by 61 respondents (7.3% of the total population of Scottish dairy farmers). Knowledge of antimicrobials and AMR was variable, and almost half of the participants believed that antimicrobials could have anti-inflammatory or analgesic activity. Veterinarians' opinions and advice about AMU were ranked significantly more important than other social referents or advisors. The majority of farmers (90%) reported having implemented practices to reduce reliance on antimicrobials (e.g., selective dry cow therapy, AMU treatment protocols) and having reduced farm AMU over recent years. Feeding waste milk to calves is still widespread, being reported by up to 30% of respondents. The main factors described to hinder responsible farm AMU were limited facilities (e.g., lack of isolation pens for sick animals) and knowledge of appropriate AMU recommendations, followed by time and financial constraints. Most farmers (89%) agreed that it is important to reduce AMU on dairy farms, but fewer (52%) acknowledged that AMU on UK dairy farms is currently too high, suggesting a mismatch between their intention to reduce antimicrobials and AMU behaviour. These results indicate that dairy farmers are aware of AMR, and their self-reported farm AMU has been reduced. However, some do not clearly comprehend the activity of antimicrobials and their correct usage. More work is needed to improve dairy farmers' knowledge of appropriate AMU and intentions to combat AMR. Farmers would benefit from more regular AMU discussions and advice from herd veterinarians, as they were described as highly trusted information resources. Training on how to reduce AMU should involve all farm staff administering antimicrobials and should be tailored to farm-specific barriers, such as limited facilities and workforce shortages.

Length and associated characteristics of short-term detentions: an analysis of detentions under the Mental Health Act in Scotland, 2006-2018.

PURPOSE: The Mental Health Act in Scotland is under review. Previous iterations increased patients' rights but the maximum time for short-term detentions remains unchanged, despite evolving psychiatric treatment models. We explored length, mode of ending and factors of influence on the application of short-term detention certificates (STDCs), which can last up to 28 days, across Scotland between 2006 and 2018. METHODS: Data on age, gender, ethnicity, date of commencement and ending of the STDC and detention site from all 42,493 STDCs issued to 30,464 patients over 12 years were extracted from the national repository for detentions under the Mental Health (Care and Treatment) (Scotland) Act 2003 and analysed using mixed models. RESULTS: One in five STDCs lapsed on day 28. Two in five were revoked and the remainder extended to a treatment order. STDCs that were not extended averaged 19 days, and revoked STDCs 14 days. The probability of a detention lapsing varied across hospitals and increased with patient age. The odds of a detention lapsing on day 28 were 62% lower and revoked detentions 10% shorter in 2018 relative to 2006. The odds of a detention extending decreased significantly from 2012 to 2018. Extended STDCs were associated with increased patient age, male gender, and ethnicity other than White Scottish. There was little initiation of or active revocation of STDCs on weekend days. CONCLUSION: The length of STDCs reduced over time, fewer detentions lapsed, and weekday patterning was evident in each year. These data can inform legislative and service reviews.

'It's not going to be a one size fits all': a qualitative exploration of the potential utility of three drug checking service models in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Scotland currently has the highest rates of drug-related deaths in Europe, so drug checking services are being explored due to their potential role in reducing these deaths and related harms. Drug checking services allow individuals to submit presumed psychoactive drug samples for analysis, and then receive individualised feedback and counselling. This paper explores participants' views on the advantages and challenges of three hypothetical service models, to inform future service delivery in Scotland. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 43 people: 27 professional stakeholders, 11 people with experience of drug use, and five family members across three cities. Vignettes were used to provide short descriptions of three hypothetical service models during the interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants identified advantages and challenges for each of the three potential service models. The third sector (not-for-profit) model was favoured overall by participants, and the NHS substance use treatment service was the least popular. Participants also noted that multiple drug checking sites within one city, along with outreach models would be advantageous, to meet the diverse needs of different groups of people who use drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Drug checking services need to be tailored to local context and needs, with a range of service models being possible, in order to meet the needs of a heterogeneous group of people who use drugs. Addressing issues around stigma, accessibility, and concerns about the potential impact of accessing drug checking on access to and outcomes of drug treatment, are essential for successful service delivery.