Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption.

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy1-3. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate4-6. Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC7,8, but they rely on models9-11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data2,3,6,7,12,13. Here we show that the release of one ton of CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -US$3 and -US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research7,8, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight14.

The effects on mortality and the associated financial costs of wood heater pollution in a regional Australian city.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual burden of mortality and the associated health costs attributable to air pollution from wood heaters in Armidale. DESIGN: Health impact assessment (excess annual mortality and financial costs) based upon atmospheric PM2.5 measurements. SETTING: Armidale, a regional Australian city (population, 24 504) with high levels of air pollution in winter caused by domestic wood heaters, 1 May 2018 - 30 April 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated population exposure to PM2.5 from wood heaters; estimated numbers of premature deaths and years of life lost. RESULTS: Fourteen premature deaths (95% CI, 12-17 deaths) per year, corresponding to 210 (95% CI, 172-249) years of life lost, are attributable to long term exposure to wood heater PM2.5 pollution in Armidale. The estimated financial cost is $32.8 million (95% CI, $27.0-38.5 million), or $10 930 (95% CI, $9004-12 822) per wood heater per year. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial mortality and financial cost attributable to wood heating in Armidale indicates that effective policies are needed to reduce wood heater pollution, including public education about the effects of wood smoke on health, subsidies that encourage residents to switch to less polluting home heating (perhaps as part of an economic recovery package), assistance for those affected by wood smoke from other people, and regulations that reduce wood heater use (eg, by not permitting new wood heaters and requiring existing units to be removed when houses are sold).

Promising Nanoparticle-Based Heat Transfer Fluids-Environmental and Techno-Economic Analysis Compared to Conventional Fluids.

Providing optimal operating conditions is one of the major challenges for effective heating or cooling systems. Moreover, proper adjustment of the heat transfer fluid is also important from the viewpoint of the correct operation, maintenance, and cost efficiency of these systems. Therefore, in this paper, a detailed review of recent work on the subject of conventional and novel heat transfer fluid applications is presented. Particular attention is paid to the novel nanoparticle-based materials used as heat transfer fluids. In-depth comparison of environmental, technical, and economic characteristics is discussed. Thermophysical properties including thermal conductivity, specific heat, density, viscosity, and Prandtl number are compared. Furthermore, the possible benefits and limitations of various transfer fluids in the fields of application are taken into account.

Minimising the risk of Mycobacterium chimaera infection during cardiopulmonary bypass by the removal of heater-cooler units from the operating room.

INTRODUCTION: Mycobacterium chimaera ( M. chimaera) is a recently characterised bacterium that can cause life-threatening infections in small numbers of patients who undergo cardiopulmonary bypass during cardiac surgery. The likely mode of transmission is thought to occur through aerosolisation from contaminated water reservoirs. The airborne bacteria then contaminate the surgical field, leading to an infection months or even years later. The preferred practical solution to disrupt the transmission of these airborne bacteria to the patient is to remove the heater-cooler units (HCUs) from the operating room (OR). We describe a process of achieving this in order to provide information to guide other institutions who wish to do a similar thing. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team was assembled to work on the project. The planning phase involved trialling different OR layouts and simulating the alterations in the HCU circuit function. The changes to the OR were made over a weekend to minimise disruption to the operating schedule. RESULTS: The HCU was moved to the dirty utility room adjacent to the OR. Standard operating procedures (SOP) and risk assessments were made to enable this to be used for a dual purpose. One of the ORs was reconfigured to allow the cardiopulmonary bypass machine to be located close to the HCU in the dirty utility room. The total cost of the alterations was £6,158. Although we have provided a physical barrier to interrupt patient exposure to aerosolised M. chimaera from HCUs, we continue to perform cultures and decontamination as per the national recommendations. The SOP was designed to be auditable to ensure compliance with the protocols. CONCLUSIONS: We show a method by which the HCU can be removed from the OR in a relatively low-cost, straightforward and practical manner.

A cost-benefit analysis of a pellet boiler with electrostatic precipitator versus conventional biomass technology: A case study of an institutional boiler in Syracuse, New York.

BACKGROUND: Biomass facilities have received increasing attention as a strategy to increase the use of renewable fuels and decrease greenhouse gas emissions from the electric generation and heating sectors, but these facilities can potentially increase local air pollution and associated health effects. Comparing the economic costs and public health benefits of alternative biomass fuel, heating technology, and pollution control technology options provides decision-makers with the necessary information to make optimal choices in a given location. METHODS: For a case study of a combined heat and power biomass facility in Syracuse, New York, we used stack testing to estimate emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for both the deployed technology (staged combustion pellet boiler with an electrostatic precipitator) and a conventional alternative (wood chip stoker boiler with a multicyclone). We used the atmospheric dispersion model AERMOD to calculate the contribution of either fuel-technology configuration to ambient primary PM2.5 in a 10km×10km region surrounding the facility, and we quantified the incremental contribution to population mortality and morbidity. We assigned economic values to health outcomes and compared the health benefits of the lower-emitting technology with the incremental costs. RESULTS: In total, the incremental annualized cost of the lower-emitting pellet boiler was $190,000 greater, driven by a greater cost of the pellet fuel and pollution control technology, offset in part by reduced fuel storage costs. PM2.5 emissions were a factor of 23 lower with the pellet boiler with electrostatic precipitator, with corresponding differences in contributions to ambient primary PM2.5 concentrations. The monetary value of the public health benefits of selecting the pellet-fired boiler technology with electrostatic precipitator was $1.7 million annually, greatly exceeding the differential costs even when accounting for uncertainties. Our analyses also showed complex spatial patterns of health benefits given non-uniform age distributions and air pollution levels. CONCLUSIONS: The incremental investment in a lower-emitting staged combustion pellet boiler with an electrostatic precipitator was well justified by the population health improvements over the conventional wood chip technology with a multicyclone, even given the focus on only primary PM2.5 within a small spatial domain. Our analytical framework could be generalized to other settings to inform optimal strategies for proposed new facilities or populations.

The short-term health and psychosocial impacts of domestic energy efficiency investments in low-income areas: a controlled before and after study.

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that living in fuel poverty and cold homes contributes to poor physical and mental health, and that interventions targeted at those living in poor quality housing may lead to health improvements. However, little is known about the socio-economic intermediaries and processes that contribute to better health. This study examined the relationship between energy efficiency investments to homes in low-income areas and mental and physical health of residents, as well as a number of psychosocial outcomes likely to be part of the complex relationship between energy efficiency measures and health outcomes. METHODS: A quasi-experimental field study with a controlled pretest-posttest design was conducted (intervention n = 364; control n = 418) to investigate the short-term health and psychosocial impacts of a domestic energy efficiency programme that took place across Wales between 2013 and 2015. Survey data were collected in the winters before and after installation of energy efficiency measures, including external wall insulation. The study used a multilevel modelling repeated measures approach to analyse the data. RESULTS: The energy efficiency programme was not associated with improvements in physical and mental health (using the SF-12v2 physical and mental health composite scales) or reductions in self-reported respiratory and asthma symptoms. However, the programme was associated with improved subjective wellbeing (B = 0.38, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.65), as well as improvements in a number of psychosocial outcomes, including increased thermal satisfaction (OR = 3.83, 95% CI 2.40 to 5.90), reduced reports of putting up with feeling cold to save heating costs (OR = 0.49, CI = 0.25 to 0.94), fewer financial difficulties (B = -0.15, 95% CI -0.25 to -0.05), and reduced social isolation (OR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.77). CONCLUSION: The study showed that investing in energy efficiency in low-income communities does not lead to self-reported health improvements in the short term. However, investments increased subjective wellbeing and were linked to a number of psychosocial intermediaries that are conducive to better health. It is likely that better living conditions contribute to improvements in health outcomes in the longer term. Better understanding of the impacts on recipients of energy efficiency schemes, could improve targeting of future fuel poverty policies.

Have winter fuel payments reduced excess winter mortality in England and Wales?

BACKGROUND: The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK. METHODS: This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales. RESULTS: We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.

Fuel poverty as a major determinant of perceived health: the case of France.

OBJECTIVES: The number of households in fuel poverty is growing. Individuals increasingly struggle to heat their homes, and therefore, a growing number of individuals are exposed to low temperatures, which can affect their health. This study sought to determine the link between a subjective measure of fuel poverty (self-reported feeling cold) and self-reported health. The impact of other particular individual and environmental features on self-reported health were also analysed. STUDY DESIGN: Econometric analysis. METHODS: The study method uses self-reported perception of thermal discomfort (self-reported feeling cold) as a proxy for fuel poverty. The French database of the Healthcare and Insurance survey carried by the Institute for Research and Information on Health Economics (IRDES) was used to estimate a dichotomous probit model. RESULTS: The estimation allows us to infer a negative impact of fuel poverty on self-reported health. Thus, a person in fuel poverty is 2.36 percentage points more likely to report poor or fair health status than a person who is not in fuel poverty. CONCLUSION: It may be appropriate to reduce the impacts of fuel poverty to provide support for the most vulnerable categories of individuals with respect to the health impacts of fuel poverty and cold homes, e.g., chronic patients who experience difficulty heating their homes.

Feasibility study for retrofitting biogas cogeneration systems to district heating in South Korea.

A feasibility study was performed to assess the technical and economic merits of retrofitting biogas-based cogeneration systems to district heating networks. Three district heating plants were selected as candidates for accommodating heat recovery from nearby waste treatment stations, where a massive amount of biogas can be produced on a regular basis. The scenario involves constructing cogeneration systems in each waste treatment station and producing electricity and heat. The amounts of biogas production for each station are estimated based on the monthly treatment capacities surveyed over the most recent years. Heat produced by the cogeneration system is first consumed on site by the waste treatment system to keep the operating temperature at a proper level. If surplus heat is available, it will be transported to the nearest district heating plant. The year-round operation of the cogeneration system was simulated to estimate the electricity and heat production. We considered cost associated with the installation of the cogeneration system and piping as initial investments. Profits from selling electricity and recovering heat are counted as income, while costs associated with buying biogas are expenses. Simple payback periods of 2-10 years were projected under the current economic conditions of South Korea. We found that most of the proposed scenarios can contribute to both energy savings and environmental protection.

Centrifugal LabTube platform for fully automated DNA purification and LAMP amplification based on an integrated, low-cost heating system.

This paper introduces a disposable battery-driven heating system for loop-mediated isothermal DNA amplification (LAMP) inside a centrifugally-driven DNA purification platform (LabTube). We demonstrate LabTube-based fully automated DNA purification of as low as 100 cell-equivalents of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) in water, milk and apple juice in a laboratory centrifuge, followed by integrated and automated LAMP amplification with a reduction of hands-on time from 45 to 1 min. The heating system consists of two parallel SMD thick film resistors and a NTC as heating and temperature sensing elements. They are driven by a 3 V battery and controlled by a microcontroller. The LAMP reagents are stored in the elution chamber and the amplification starts immediately after the eluate is purged into the chamber. The LabTube, including a microcontroller-based heating system, demonstrates contamination-free and automated sample-to-answer nucleic acid testing within a laboratory centrifuge. The heating system can be easily parallelized within one LabTube and it is deployable for a variety of heating and electrical applications.

Smart HVAC control in IoT: energy consumption minimization with user comfort constraints.

Smart grid is one of the main applications of the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm. Within this context, this paper addresses the efficient energy consumption management of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in smart grids with variable energy price. To that end, first, we propose an energy scheduling method that minimizes the energy consumption cost for a particular time interval, taking into account the energy price and a set of comfort constraints, that is, a range of temperatures according to user's preferences for a given room. Then, we propose an energy scheduler where the user may select to relax the temperature constraints to save more energy. Moreover, thanks to the IoT paradigm, the user may interact remotely with the HVAC control system. In particular, the user may decide remotely the temperature of comfort, while the temperature and energy consumption information is sent through Internet and displayed at the end user's device. The proposed algorithms have been implemented in a real testbed, highlighting the potential gains that can be achieved in terms of both energy and cost.

Evaluating the association between receipt of a winter fuel cash transfer and older people's care needs, quality of life, and housing quality: Evidence from England.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold temperatures is known to be associated with deterioration of physical and mental health as well as poorer well-being in many countries. The Winter Fuel Payment, an unconditional direct cash transfer of value between £250-£300, was designed to help older people in England cover heating costs during the winter months, to counteract the particular vulnerability of older people to the effects of cold weather. AIMS: We evaluated the impact of the Winter Fuel Payment scheme on subsequent prevalence of care needs such as being unable to eat or shower independently, quality of life and the likelihood of having cold-related housing conditions. We also explored the potential effects of the Winter Fuel Payment across different sub-samples (poorer/richer individuals, those living in newer/older properties, and in the North/South of England) to explore whether its benefits (if any) are spread equally across the eligible population. DATA AND METHODS: We used a regression discontinuity design approach with age as running variable to analyse seven waves of a nationally representative sample, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, covering the period 2002/2003 to 2016/2017, and consisting of 24,651 observations. RESULTS: The Winter Fuel Payment had no overall effect on the outcomes of interest (care needs, quality of life, and cold-related housing problems). However, the Payment increased quality of life for poorer individuals, for those living in Northern regions of England, and for those living in newer dwellings. The likelihood of living in a property with at least one cold-related housing problem also decreased for those living in newer properties. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this research provide important insights into the effectiveness of a winter cash transfer among the older population in England, and they are potentially relevant for other nations looking for strategies to deal with cold seasons and poorly insulated homes. In particular, this evaluation contributes to the 'universality versus targeting' policy debate and has implications for the development of energy-efficient policies.

The cost of keeping warm: a relationship between a rise in the cost of domestic energy and burn injuries caused by personal heating equipment.

INTRODUCTION: During 2022-2023, the UK found itself in the midst of a domestic energy crisis, with the average domestic gas and electricity bill rising by 75% between 2019 and 2022. As a result, the use of hot water bottles, radiant heaters, and electric blankets increased. An unintended consequence of this may be an increase in burn injuries caused by misfortune, misuse, or the use of items in a state of disrepair. PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to explore any increase in referrals to a single burns centre in England for injuries caused by hot water bottles, radiant heaters, or electric blankets. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of a prospectively maintained database of referrals. All referrals between January 2022 and January 2023 were selected and compared with the same period from 2020-2021 (before the rise in energy prices). Referrals were screened for the terms "hot water bottle," "electric heater," "electric blanket," and "heater." Total referrals in each period, demographic data (age, gender), anatomical location and the mechanism of injury were compared between cohorts. RESULTS: We found a statistically significant increase in the number of burns relating to heating implements between 2020/21 and 2022/23, rising from 54 to 81 (p = 0.03) - a 50% increase in injuries. Injuries in working age adults increased significantly (52% to 69%, p < 0.05). The most frequently injured area was the leg (30%) followed by the hand (18%). The commonest type of injury described was scald (72%). We found a moderately-strong correlation between the number of referrals and the average cost of energy in 2022-23. CONCLUSION: The number of injuries sustained by people using personal heating equipment is significantly increasing, which correlated with the rise in domestic energy prices. The most affected demographic appears to be working age adults, with wider implications around lost work-time yet to be explored. Further prospective, population-based work is indicated to assess the strength of the correlation seen in this study.

Fuel poverty and the health of older people: the role of local climate.

BACKGROUND: Fuel poverty is a risk factor for ill-health, particularly among older people. We hypothesized that both the risk of fuel poverty and the strength of its detrimental effects on health would be increased in areas of colder and wetter climate. METHODS: Individual data on respiratory health, hypertension, depressive symptoms and self-rated health were derived from the 2008/09 wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Climate data for 89 English counties and unitary authorities were obtained from the UK Met Office. Multilevel regression models (n = 7160) were used to test (i) the association between local climate and fuel poverty risk, and (ii) the association between local climate and the effect of fuel poverty on health (adjusted for age, gender, height, smoking status and household income). RESULTS: Individual risk of fuel poverty varied across counties. However, this variation was not explained by differences in climate. Fuel poverty was significantly related to worse health for two of the outcomes (respiratory health and depressive symptoms). However, there was no significant effect of climate on fuel poverty's association with these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is regional variation in England in both the risk of fuel poverty and its effects on health, this variation is not explained by differences in rainfall and winter temperatures.

Warm homes for older people: aims and methods of a randomised community-based trial for people with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is of increasing importance with about one in four people estimated to be diagnosed with COPD during their lifetime. None of the existing medications for COPD has been shown to have much effect on the long-term decline in lung function and there have been few recent pharmacotherapeutic advances. Identifying preventive interventions that can reduce the frequency and severity of exacerbations could have important public health benefits. The Warm Homes for Elder New Zealanders study is a community-based trial, designed to test whether a NZ$500 electricity voucher paid into the electricity account of older people with COPD, with the expressed aim of enabling them to keep their homes warm, results in reduced exacerbations and hospitalisation rates. It will also examine whether these subsidies are cost-beneficial. METHODS: Participants had a clinician diagnosis of COPD and had either been hospitalised or taken steroids or antibiotics for COPD in the previous three years; their median age was 71 years. Participants were recruited from three communities between 2009 to early 2011. Where possible, participants' houses were retrofitted with insulation. After baseline data were received, participants were randomised to either 'early' or 'late' intervention groups. The intervention was a voucher of $500 directly credited to the participants' electricity company account. Early group participants received the voucher the first winter they were enrolled in the study, late participants during the second winter. Objective measures included spirometry and indoor temperatures and subjective measures included questions about participant health and wellbeing, heating, medication and visits to health professionals. Objective health care usage data included hospitalisation and primary care visits. Assessments of electricity use were obtained through electricity companies using unique customer numbers. DISCUSSION: This community trial has successfully enrolled 522 older people with COPD. Baseline data showed that, despite having a chronic respiratory illness, participants are frequently cold in their houses and economise on heating. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical trial registration is http://NCT01627418.

Synthesis of trigeneration systems: sensitivity analyses and resilience.

This paper presents sensitivity and resilience analyses for a trigeneration system designed for a hospital. The following information is utilized to formulate an integer linear programming model: (1) energy service demands of the hospital, (2) technical and economical characteristics of the potential technologies for installation, (3) prices of the available utilities interchanged, and (4) financial parameters of the project. The solution of the model, minimizing the annual total cost, provides the optimal configuration of the system (technologies installed and number of pieces of equipment) and the optimal operation mode (operational load of equipment, interchange of utilities with the environment, convenience of wasting cogenerated heat, etc.) at each temporal interval defining the demand. The broad range of technical, economic, and institutional uncertainties throughout the life cycle of energy supply systems for buildings makes it necessary to delve more deeply into the fundamental properties of resilient systems: feasibility, flexibility and robustness. The resilience of the obtained solution is tested by varying, within reasonable limits, selected parameters: energy demand, amortization and maintenance factor, natural gas price, self-consumption of electricity, and time-of-delivery feed-in tariffs.

Cost-efficiency trade-off and the design of thermoelectric power generators.

The energy conversion efficiency of today's thermoelectric generators is significantly lower than that of conventional mechanical engines. Almost all of the existing research is focused on materials to improve the conversion efficiency. Here we propose a general framework to study the cost-efficiency trade-off for thermoelectric power generation. A key factor is the optimization of thermoelectric modules together with their heat source and heat sinks. Full electrical and thermal co-optimization yield a simple analytical expression for optimum design. Based on this model, power output per unit mass can be maximized. We show that the fractional area coverage of thermoelectric elements in a module could play a significant role in reducing the cost of power generation systems.