Trends in uterine cancer incidence in the United States: The contribution of age, period and cohort effects.

OBJECTIVE: In the U.S., uterine cancer incidence is rising, with racial and ethnic minorities experiencing the largest increases. We performed age-period-cohort analyses using novel methods to examine the contribution of age at diagnosis (age), year of diagnosis (period), and birth cohort (cohort), to trends in uterine cancer incidence. METHODS: We used uterine cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) 12 database (1992-2019), and performed hysterectomy-correction. We generated hexamaps to visualize age, period, and cohort effects, and used mutual information to estimate the percent contribution of age, period, and cohort effects, individually and combined, on uterine cancer incidence, overall and by race and ethnicity and histology. RESULTS: Hexamaps showed an increase in uterine cancer in later time periods, and a cohort effect around 1933 showing a lower incidence compared with earlier and later cohorts. Age, period, and cohort effects combined contributed 86.6% (95% CI: 86.4%, 86.9%) to the incidence. Age effects had the greatest contribution (65.1%, 95% CI: 64.3%, 65.9), followed by cohort (20.7%, 95% CI: 20.1%, 21.3%) and period (14.2%, 95% CI: 13.7%, 14.8%) effects. Hexamaps showed higher incidence in recent years for non-Hispanic Blacks and non-endometrioid tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Age effects had the largest contribution to uterine cancer incidence, followed by cohort and period effects overall and across racial and ethnic groups and histologies. IMPACT: These findings can inform uterine cancer modeling studies on the effects of interventions that target risk factors which may vary across age, period, or cohort.

Latina paradox in Spain? Arrival-cohort effects on the birthweight of newborns of Latina mothers.

This study analyses the arrival-cohort effects on the newborn birthweight of Latina women residing in Spain. First, it has been tested whether women of Latin American origin in Spain have an advantage in terms of birth outcomes, a pattern previously documented in the United States and referred to as the 'Latin American paradox'. Second, it has been examined whether this health advantage of Latina mothers varies by arrival cohort.A novel database provided by the Spanish National Statistics Office that links the 2011 Census with Natural Movement of the Population records from January 2011 to December 2015 has been used. Poisson regression models were applied to test for differences in the incidence rates of low birthweight (LBW) and high birthweight (HBW) among children of Latina and native mothers, controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, and birth characteristics.Two distinct arrival-cohort effects on perinatal health were observed. On one hand, first-generation Latina women were found to be at a lower risk of giving birth to LBW infants; however, they experienced a higher incidence of HBW during the study period. Second, Latina women of 1.5 generation, likely stressed by increased exposure to the receiving country, exhibited adverse birthweight results.

Detecting Cohort Effects in Accelerated Longitudinal Designs Using Multilevel Models.

Accelerated longitudinal designs allow researchers to efficiently collect longitudinal data covering a time span much longer than the study duration. One important assumption of these designs is that each cohort (a group defined by their age of entry into the study) shares the same longitudinal trajectory. Although previous research has examined the impact of violating this assumption when each cohort is defined by a single age of entry, it is possible that each cohort is instead defined by a range of ages, such as groups that experience a particular historical event. In this paper we examined how including cohort membership in linear and quadratic multilevel models performed in detecting and controlling for cohort effects in this scenario. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we assessed the performance of this approach under conditions related to the number of cohorts, the overlap between cohorts, the strength of the cohort effect, the number of affected parameters, and the sample size. Our results indicate that models including a proxy variable for cohort membership based on age at study entry performed comparably to using true cohort membership in detecting cohort effects accurately and returning unbiased parameter estimates. This indicates that researchers can control for cohort effects even when true cohort membership is unknown.

Investigating temporal patterns of colorectal cancer incidence in Spain: a comprehensive analysis of age, period and cohort effects, 1990-2019.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate how age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) impact colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we used joinpoint analysis to identify long-term trends and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects. RESULTS: CRC incidence increased steadily in Spain from 1990 to 2019, with a more significant rise in males than in females. The age standardized rates rose from 84.9 to 129.3 cases per 100,000 in males and from 56.9 to 70.3 cases per 100,000 in females. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct patterns for men and women: male incidence showed three phases (a surge until 1995, a slowdown until 2012, and a subsequent decrease) while female incidence showed a single increase until 2011 and then stabilized. Local drifts increased in all age groups over 45, with stability in males under 45 and a decrease in females aged 30-39. The risk of CRC increased with age, with males consistently having a higher risk than females. The risk of CRC increased over time for both men and women but at different rates. The risk for cohorts born in the early to mid-20th century peaked in the 1960s and remained stable until the late 1990s. CONCLUSION: The increasing incidence of CRC in Spain, with distinct patterns by gender and birth cohort, underlines the importance of preventive strategies adapted to temporal and demographic variations to address this public health challenge.

Age-period-cohort effects on incidence trends of childhood leukemia from four population-based cancer registries in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population. METHODS: Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences. RESULTS: A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on dental caries prevalence from 2008 to 2019 among Brazilian preschoolers.

This study aimed to evaluate trends in the prevalence of dental caries in preschool children and associated factors considering different time variations. This is a time series study performed using data from three cross-sectional studies with pre-school children from southern Brazil in 2008, 2013 and 2019. This children group was born between the years of 2003 to 2018. Dental caries was evaluated by decayed, missing and filled deciduous teeth (dmft index). Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and psychosocial variables were also collected. Chi-square test for trends and a hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) analysis using multilevel Poisson regression model for testing the associations between predictor variables and dental caries experience were used. A total of 1,644 pre-school children participated in all surveys. There was a significant difference in caries experience considering all APC effects. The prevalence of dental caries was 25.0% in 2008, 16.3% in 2013, and 19.4% in 2019 (p < 0.01) and no statistical difference was observed. An age effect showed that older children were more likely to experience dental caries. Considering the cohort effect, there is a significant difference between the generations, mainly between 2003 and 2018. Household income, use of dental services, and parent's perception of child oral health were associated with dental caries experience no matter the time variation. Despite recent declines in dental caries prevalence among preschool children, caries levels increased with age and social inequalities persisted through the years, indicating a need of reviewing the policies to reduce the burden of this oral disease.

Birth cohort effects on diagnosed atrial fibrillation incidence: nationwide cohort study from 1980 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows substantial temporal trends, but the contribution of birth cohort effects is unknown. These effects refer to the relationship between birth year and the likelihood of developing AF. We aimed to assess trends in cumulative incidence of diagnosed AF across birth cohorts and to disentangle the effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period by using age-period-cohort analyses. METHODS: In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 4.7 million individuals were selected at a given index age (45, 55, 65 and 75 years) free of AF and followed up for diagnosed AF. For each index age, we assessed trends in 10-year cumulative incidence of AF across six 5-year birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model was estimated using Poisson regression with constrained spline functions collapsing data into 1-year intervals across ages and calendar years. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of AF diagnosis increased across birth cohorts for all index ages (ptrend<0.001). Compared with the first birth cohort, the diagnosed AF incidence rate ratio in the last birth cohort was 3.0 (95% CI 2.9 to 3.2) for index age 45 years, 2.9 (2.8 to 3.0) for 55 years, 2.8 (2.7 to 2.8) for 65 years and 2.7 (2.6 to 2.7) for 75 years. Age-period-cohort analyses showed substantial birth cohort effects independent of age, with no clear period effect. Compared with individuals born in 1930, the diagnosed AF incidence rate was 0.125 smaller among individuals born in 1885 and was four times larger among individuals born in 1975. CONCLUSION: Substantial birth cohort effects, independent of age and calendar period, influence trends in diagnosed AF incidence.

Irish Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Incidence: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects Using a Partial Least Squares Regression Model.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the underlying reasons for variability in the incidence rate of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) within the Irish population between the years 1996 and 2021. METHODS: The Irish ALS register was used to calculate the incidence and to subsequently extract age at diagnosis (age), year of diagnosis (period), and date of birth (cohort) for all incident patients within the study period (n = 2,771). An age-period-cohort (APC) model using partial least squares regression was constructed to examine each component separately and their respective contribution to the incidence while minimizing the well-known identifiability problem of APC effects. A dummy regression model consisting of 5 periods, 19 cohorts, and 16 age groups was used to examine nonlinear relationships within the data over time. The CIs for each of these were estimated using the jackknife method. RESULTS: The nonlinear model achieved R2 of 99.43% with 2-component extraction. Age variation was evident with those in the ages 65-79 years contributing significantly to the incidence (ßmax = 0.0746, SE = 0.000410, CI 0.00665-0.00826). However, those aged 25-60 years contributed significantly less (ßmin = -0.00393, SE = 0.000291, CI -0.00454 to -0.00340). Each successive period showed an increase in the regression model coefficient suggesting an increasing incidence over time, independent of the other factors examined-an increase of ß from -0.00489 (SE = 0.000264, CI -0.00541 to -0.00437) to 0.00973 (SE = 0.000418, CI 0.0105-0.00891). A cohort effect was demonstrated showing that the contribution of those born between 1927 and 1951 contributed to a significantly greater degree than the other birth cohorts (ßmax = 0.00577, SE = 0.000432, CI 0.00493-0.00662). DISCUSSION: Using the Irish population-based ALS Register, robust age, period, and cohort effects can be identified. The age effect may be accounted for by demographic shifts within the population. Changes in disease categorization, competing risks of death, and improved surveillance may account for period effects. The cohort effect may reflect lifestyle and environmental factors associated with the challenging economic circumstances in Ireland between 1927 and 1951. Age-period-cohort studies can help to account for changes in disease incidence and prevalence, providing additional insights into likely demographic and environmental factors that influence population-based disease risk.

Age, period, cohort effects in trends of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Objectives: To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends of depression; and to examine the influence of these three temporal effects on residential disparities in depression. Methods: Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during 2011 to 2020, involving 77,703 respondents aged 45 years old and above. The measurement of depressive symptoms was the score of 10-question version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10). The hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to examine trends in depressive symptoms related to age, period and cohort. Results: CES-D scores increased with age and slightly decreased at older age. The cohort trends mostly increased except for a downward trend among those born in 1950s. As for the period effect, CES-D scores decreased gradually from 2011 to 2013 followed by a upward trend. Rural residents were associated with higher level of depression than those live in urban area. These residence gaps in depression enlarged before the age of 80, and then narrowed. The urban-rural disparities in CES-D scores gradually diminished across cohorts, while the corresponding period-based change in urban-rural gaps was not significant. Conclusion: When age, period, cohort factors are considered, the age effects on depression dominated, and the period and cohort variations were relatively small. The residence disparities in depression reduced with successive cohorts, more attention should be paid to the worsening depression condition of younger cohorts in urban areas.

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of hepatitis B from 2008 to 2022 in Guangzhou, China.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly prevalent in Guangzhou, China. This study aimed to examine the long-term trend of HB incidence from 2008 to 2022 and the independent impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends. HBV data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Joinpoint regression was utilized to examine temporal trends, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. A total of 327,585 HBV cases were included in this study. The incidence of chronic and acute HB showed a decreasing trend in Guangzhou over the past 15 years, with an average annual percent change of - 4.31% and - 16.87%, respectively. Age, period, and cohort all exerted significant effects. The incidence of HB was higher in males than in females and non-central areas compared to central areas. Age groups of 0-4 years and 15-24 years were identified as high-risk groups. The period relative risks for chronic HB incidence decreased initially and then stabilized. Cohorts born later had lower risks. Chronic HB incidences remain high in Guangzhou, especially among males, younger individuals, and residents of non-central areas. More efforts are still needed to achieve hepatitis elimination targets.

Examining age, period and cohort effects in attitude change to childhood vaccinations in a representative New Zealand survey: a multiyear cohort-sequential growth modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccinations are an important preventative measure in reducing the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. However, concerns of undervaccination during childhood have become increasingly common. The current study aims to investigate changes in attitudes towards childhood vaccinations prior to the COVID-19 pandemic using a national sample from New Zealand. DESIGN: Age-based, period-based, and cohort-based changes were assessed using cohort-sequential latent growth modelling in 11 overlapping birth cohorts, which spanned the ages of 23-79 years. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were taken from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study where 58 654 adults completed at least one wave across a 7-year period (2013 and 2015-2019). RESULTS: The period-based and cohort-based models fit the data equally well (χ2(282)=8547.93, p<0.001, comparative fit index, CFI=0.894, root mean square error of approximation, (RMSEA)=0.074, standardised root mean square residual, SRMR=0.105; χ2(273)=8514.87, p<0.001, CFI=0.894, RMSEA=0.075, SRMR=0.105, respectively) suggesting societal factors contribute to childhood vaccination attitudes. Additionally, the findings suggest attitudes towards childhood vaccinations were becoming increasingly more positive in all birth cohorts (ps<0.001), with younger and older birth cohorts exhibiting even positive attitudes compared with middle-aged cohorts. CONCLUSION: Overall, both the cohort-based and period-based models reveal changes in vaccination attitudes suggesting that even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, societal influences had an impact on attitudes towards childhood vaccination.

Comparing cohort and period trends of early-onset colorectal cancer: a global analysis.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased globally in recent decades. We examined early-onset CRC incidence trends worldwide for potential cohort effects, defined as changes associated with time of birth (eg, early-life exposure to carcinogens), and period effects, defined as changes associated with calendar periods (eg, screening programs). METHODS: We obtained long-term incidence data for early-onset CRC diagnosed in patients aged 20 to 49 years through the year 2012 for 35 countries in the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. We used a smoothing method to help compare cohort and period trends of early-onset CRC and used an age-period-cohort model to estimate cohort and period effects. RESULTS: Cohort effects had a more dominant role than period effects in the early-onset CRC incidence in Shanghai (China), the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, and Osaka (Japan). The smoothed trends show the specific birth cohorts when early-onset CRC began to increase: the 1940s-1950s birth cohorts in the United States; the 1950s-1960s birth cohorts in other Western countries; the 1960s birth cohorts in Osaka; and the 1970s-1980s birth cohorts in Shanghai. Such increases occurred earlier for early-onset cancers of the rectum than of the colon. For the other countries, the results were less clear. CONCLUSIONS: Recent birth cohorts may have been exposed to risk factors different from earlier cohorts, contributing to increased early-onset CRC incidence in several developed countries or regions in the West and Asia. Such increases began in earlier birth cohorts in Western countries than in developed regions of Asia.

Efeito da idade-período-coorte na mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste do Brasil, 1980-2019 / Age-period-cohort effect on cervical cancer mortality in the Center-West of Brazil, 1980-2019 / Efecto edad-período-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el Centro-Oeste de Brasil, 1980-2019

Objetivos: analisar o efeito da idade-período-coorte nas taxas de mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Métodos: estudo ecológico de séries temporais, de 1980 a 2019, cujas fontes de dados foram o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e as estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Modelos de efeito idade-período-corte com distribuição de Poisson foram usados. Resultados: observaram-se 19.260 óbitos, correspondente à taxa de mortalidade padronizada média de 17,23/100 mil mulheres. O efeito da idade indicou aumento progressivo das taxas com o avançar da idade. O efeito do período evidenciou redução do risco de morte no Distrito Federal (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014) e Mato Grosso (2010-2019), além de aumento em Goiás (2015-2019). O efeito da coorte revelou aumento do risco de morte para as nascidas antes de 1950-1954 e redução nas gerações a partir de 1955-1959. Conclusão: há evidências de efeito da idade-período-coorte na mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste brasileiro, o que demanda fortalecimento de ações para sua prevenção e controle voltadas para mulheres de coortes e idades sob maior risco de morrer por essa causa.

Objectives: to analyze the effect of age-period-cohort on cervical cancer mortality rates in the Center-West of Brazil. Methods: ecological time series study from 1980 to 2019, utilizing data from the Mortality Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Age-period-cohort effect models with Poisson distribution were employed. Results: 19,260 deaths were observed, corresponding to an average standardized mortality rate of 17.23/100,000 women. The age effect indicated a progressive increase in rates as age advanced. The period effect showed a reduction in the risk of death in the Federal District (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014), and Mato Grosso (2010-2019), as well as an increase in Goiás (2015-2019). The cohort effect showed an increase in the risk of death for those born before 1950-1954 and a reduction in the generations from 1955-1959 onwards. Conclusion: there is evidence of an age-period-cohort effect on mortality from cervical cancer in the Brazilian Center-West, which calls for the strengthening of actions for its prevention and control aimed at women of cohorts and ages at greater risk of dying from this cause.

Objetivos: análisis del efecto de la edad-período-cohorte en las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el centro-oeste de Brasil. Métodos:estudio de series temporales ecológicas, de 1980 a 2019, cuyas fuentes de datos fueron el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad y las estimaciones de población del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Se utilizaron modelos de efecto edad-período-corte con distribución de Poisson. Resultados: se registraron 19.260 fallecimientos, lo que corresponde a una tasa media de mortalidad estandarizada de 17,23/100.000 mujeres. El efecto edad indicó un aumento progresivo de las tasas con el avance de la edad. El efecto período mostró una reducción del riesgo de muerte en el Distrito Federal (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014) y Mato Grosso (2010-2019), así como un aumento en Goiás (2015-2019). El efecto cohorte mostró un aumento del riesgo de muerte para los nacidos antes de 1950-1954 y una reducción en las generaciones a partir de 1955-1959. Conclusión: hay evidencias de un efecto edad-período-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el Centro-Oeste brasileño, lo que exige el refuerzo de las acciones para su prevención y control dirigidas a las mujeres de cohortes y edades con mayor riesgo de morir por esta causa.

Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on homicide mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1996 to 2015 / Efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos sobre mortalidade por homicídio na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1996 e 2015 / Efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento en la mortalidad por homicidio, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, Brasil, de 1996 a 2015

Abstract: Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world's most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements.

Resumo: Embora São Paulo seja a cidade mais populosa do Brasil, que é um dos países mais violentos do mundo, o município vem apresentando uma redução significativa na taxa de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH). O estudo buscou estimar os efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos na tendência da mortalidade por homicídio de acordo com sexo na cidade de São Paulo, entre 1996 e 2015. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com dados sobre óbitos por homicídio em ambos os sexos, em todas as faixas etárias, no local e período mencionados acima. Foram ajustados modelos de Poisson para cada sexo, para estimar os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. Foram registrados 61.833 óbitos por homicídio em homens e 5.109 em mulheres. Independentemente do período, a TMH mais alta ocorreu na faixa etária de 20-24 anos. As TMH mais altas foram observadas em indivíduos que nasceram nas décadas de 1970 e 1980. O melhor ajuste para os dados foi como o modelo completo, com os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. O risco e óbitos por homicídio diminuiu ao longo dos anos, com a menor intensidade nos últimos cinco anos (2011-2015), tanto em homens (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49) quanto em mulheres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Foi observada uma redução no risco de homicídio, independente de sexo ou faixa etária, como também, nas coortes mais recentes. Entretanto, a intensidade dessas reduções tem diminuído ao longo do tempo, sugerindo que as políticas públicas adotadas têm potencial limitado para manter os avanços alcançados.

Resumen: A pesar de que São Paulo es la cuidad más poblada en Brasil, uno de los países más violentos del mundo, ha estado mostrando una significativa reducción en su tasa de mortalidad por homicidios (TMH). Este estudio se propone estimar los efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento sobre la tendencia de la mortalidad por homicidio, según sexo, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, de 1996 a 2015. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos sobre las muertes por homicidio en ambos sexos, en todos los grupos de edad, en el lugar y período mencionado previamente. Con el fin de estimar los efectos de la edad-período-cohorte, se ajustaron modelos Poisson para ambos sexos. Se registraron un total de 61.833 muertes por homicidio entre hombres y 5.109 entre mujeres. Independientemente del período, la TMH más alta se produjo en la franja de edad 20-24. Unas TMH más altas se observaron en quienes habían nacido en los 1970 y los 1980. El modelo completo, con los efectos edad-período-cohorte, fue la mejor manera de ajustar los datos. El riesgo de muerte por homicidio se redujo a lo largo de los períodos, con una intensidad más baja en los últimos cinco años (2011-2015), para tanto hombres (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49), como mujeres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Se observó una reducción en el riesgo de homicidio, independientemente del sexo o franja de edad, así como en las cohortes recientes. No obstante, la intensidad de tales reducciones ha estado decreciendo a lo largo del tiempo, lo que sugiere que las políticas públicas adoptadas tienen un potencial limitado para mantener estos logros.

Segregação ocupacional e diferenciais de renda por gênero e raça no Brasil: uma análise de grupos etários / Occupational segregation and income gap by gender and race in Brazil: an age group analysis / Segregación ocupacional y diferenciales de ingresos por género y raza en Brasil: un análisis de grupos de edad

Nos últimos 30 anos, o Brasil consolidou aspectos da mudança estrutural no mercado de trabalho referentes à modernização ocupacional, participação feminina e expansão do ensino superior. Nesse sentido, coortes mais jovens se inserem em um contexto distinto daqueles presenciados em décadas passadas. Logo, este artigo tem como objetivo medir a variação da segregação ocupacional e a disparidade salarial por gênero e raça em três grupos etários. Assim, questiona-se: a segregação ocupacional por gênero e raça é menor entre os mais jovens? Isso se reflete em menor desigualdade salarial? Tais perguntas são analisadas por meio de índices de segregação e decomposições salariais com base na PNAD 2015 para uma amostra de pessoas com ensino superior completo. Os resultados apontam menor desigualdade entre os mais jovens, mas ainda deixam dúvidas se são efeitos de idade ou coorte. Para isso, uma segunda análise compara os índices de segregação da coorte entre 26 e 35 anos em 2015 com o mesmo intervalo nos anos de 1995 e 2005, com o intuito de separar os efeitos de coorte e de idade. Ao final, indica-se que a idade é mais associada ao aumento da desigualdade do que a coorte, embora entre os mais jovens haja menor segregação por raça.

In the past 30 years, Brazil strengthened labor market structural change on aspects related to occupational modernization, feminine participation and Higher Education expansion. In this regard, younger cohorts entered in a different context than those who entered in past decades. Thus, this research aims to measure occupational segregation and wage disparities by gender and race over three age groups. Therefore, the questions are: Is occupational segregation lower among younger people? Does it reflect on lower wage inequality? These questions are analyzed through segregation and wage decomposition from PNAD 2015 on a sample for people with Higher Education. These results point out to lower inequality among the youngest people, but doubts remain as to whether these are age or cohort effects. In this regard, the segregation index for the cohort between 26 and 35 years old in 2015 is compared to the same age range in 1995 and 2005, focusing on isolated cohort and age effects. In the end, it is pointed out that age is more associated with increasing inequality than with cohort, although segregation by race is lower among the younger cohort.

En los últimos treinta años, Brasil ha consolidado aspectos de cambio estructural en el mercado laboral relacionados con la modernización ocupacional, la participación femenina y la expansión de la educación superior. En este sentido, las cohortes más jóvenes se insertan en un contexto diferente del que se insertaron en décadas pasadas. Por tanto, la presente investigación tiene como objetivo medir la variación en la segregación ocupacional y la brecha salarial por género y raza en tres grupos de edad. En este sentido, las preguntas son: ¿La segregación ocupacional por género y raza es menor entre las personas más jóvenes? ¿Se refleja esto en una menor desigualdad salarial? Estas preguntas se analizan mediante índices de segregación y descomposiciones del salario basados en el PNAD de 2015 en una muestra de personas con estudios superiores completos. Los resultados muestran tasas más bajas de desigualdad entre las personas más jóvenes, pero aún dejan dudas sobre si son efectos de la edad o la cohorte. Para esto, las tasas de segregación de la cohorte de entre 26 y 35 años en 2015 se comparan con el mismo intervalo en los años 1995 y 2005, para separar los efectos de cohorte y edad. Al final, se indica que la edad está más asociada con una mayor desigualdad que la cohorte, aunque entre las personas más jóvenes hay menos segregación por raza.

Mortality from oral and oropharyngeal cancer: age-period-cohort effect, Brazil, 1983-2017 / Mortalidade por câncer de boca e orofaringe: efeito idade-período-coorte, Brasil, 1983-2017

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Estimate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality from oral and oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil and its macro-regions. METHODS Deaths from oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 1983 to 2017 were analyzed. The Poisson regression model was applied, using estimable functions proposed by Holford. RESULTS From 1983 to 2017, 142,634 deaths from oral and oropharyngeal cancer were registered in Brazil, 81% among men, and the South and Southeast regions had the highest rates. The most significant period effects were observed in male mortality in the Southeast and Central-West regions for the 2003-2007 reference period. In the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions, an increased risk of mortality was observed in the most recent male cohorts. In the North region, the most significant risk identified was for men born during 1973-1977 (RR = 1.47; 95%CI 1.05-2.08); in the Northeast, for men born during 1988-1992 (RR = 2.77; 95%CI 1.66-4.63); and in the Central-West, for women born during 1973-1977 (RR = 2.01; 95%CI 1.19-3.39). In the Southeast and South regions, the most recent cohorts had lower mortality rates. The lowest risk in the Southeast region was observed in the male cohort born during 1978-1982 (RR = 0.53; 95%CI 0.45-0.62) and 1983-1987 in the South region (RR = 0.25; 95%CI 0.12-0.54). CONCLUSIONS Age had a significant effect on mortality from oral and oropharyngeal cancer in all regions. In the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions, an increase in risk was observed in the most recent cohorts, while in the South and Southeast regions, these cohorts presented a lower risk when compared to the older cohorts.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Estimar o efeito da idade, período e coorte de nascimento na mortalidade por câncer de boca e orofaringe no Brasil e suas macrorregiões. MÉTODO Foram analisados os óbitos por câncer de boca e orofaringe de 1983 a 2017. Aplicou-se o modelo de regressão de Poisson, utilizando funções estimáveis propostas por Holford. RESULTADOS No período de 1983 a 2017, foram registrados no Brasil 142.634 óbitos por câncer de boca e orofaringe, 81% entre o sexo masculino, e as regiões Sul e Sudeste apresentaram as taxas mais altas. Os maiores efeitos de período foram observados na mortalidade masculina das regiões Sudeste e Centro-Oeste para o período de referência 2003-2007. Nas regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste foi observado aumento do risco de mortalidade nas coortes masculinas mais recentes. Na região Norte o maior risco identificado foi para homens nascidos entre 1973 e 1977 (RR = 1,47; IC95% 1,05-2,08); no Nordeste, para homens nascidos entre 1988 e 1992 (RR = 2,77; IC95% 1,66-4,63); e no Centro-Oeste, para mulheres nascidas entre 1973 e 1977 (RR = 2,01; IC95% 1,19-3,39). Nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, as coortes mais recentes apresentaram taxas de mortalidade mais baixas. O menor risco na região Sudeste foi observado na coorte masculina nascida entre 1978 e 1982 (RR = 0,53; IC95% = 0,45-0,62), e entre 1983 e 1987 na região Sul (RR = 0,25; IC95% 0,12-0,54). CONCLUSÕES A idade teve efeito significativo na mortalidade por câncer de boca e orofaringe em todas as regiões. Nas regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste, foi observado aumento do risco nas coortes mais recentes, enquanto nas regiões Sul e Sudeste essas coortes apresentaram risco menor quando comparadas às coortes mais antigas.

Mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en México de 1990 a 2016: efecto edad-periodo-cohorte / Lung cancer mortality in Mexico, 1990-2016: age-period-cohort effect

Resumen: Objetivo: Actualizar información sobre la tendencia de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en México de 1990 a 2016. Material y métodos: Se obtuvieron tasas ajustadas por edad mediante el método directo. Se obtuvo el porcentaje de cambio anual de la mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón, mediante análisis joinpoint a nivel nacional, por región, sexo y estrato rural-urbano y, en estos dos últimos, el efecto de edad-periodo-cohorte. Resultados: Se observó un decremento anual en las tasas de mortalidad por esta neoplasia en los últimos 10 años, significativamente mayor en los hombres (-3.5% IC95% -4.0,-2.9) que en las mujeres (-1.9% IC95% -2.1,-1.7), una brecha generacional entre hombres y mujeres y estrato urbano-rural con tendencia decreciente en el riesgo de muerte. Conclusión: Las tendencias de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón de 1993 a 2016 presentan una disminución en diferentes magnitudes y periodos específicos.

Abstract: Objective: To update information on the mortality trend due to lung cancer in Mexico from 1990 to 2016. Materials and methods: Age-adjusted rates were obtained using the direct method. The percentage of annual change in the mortality of lung cancer was obtained through joinpoint analysis at the national level, by region, sex and rural-urban stratum, and in the last two the age-cohort-period effect. Results: There was an annual decrease in mortality rates due to this neoplasm in the last 10 years, significantly higher in men (-3.5% CI95% -4.0,-2.9) than in women (-1.9% CI95% -2.1,-1.7), and a generational gap between men and women and urban-rural stratum with a decreasing trend in the risk of death. Conclusion: Mortality trends due to lung cancer from 1993 to 2016 show a decrease in different magnitudes and specific periods.

Homicídios masculinos em duas regiões brasileiras: análise do efeito da idade, período e coorte / Male homicides in two regions of Brazil: analysis of the effect of age, period, and cohort / Homicidios masculinos en dos regiones brasileñas: análisis del efecto de la edad, período y cohorte

O objetivo foi avaliar o efeito da idade, período e coorte de nascimento na evolução temporal da mortalidade por homicídios em homens nos estados das regiões Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil, entre o período de 1980 a 2014. Estudo ecológico de tendência temporal. Os modelos APC foram estimados usando funções estimáveis na inferência dos parâmetros. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do SUS. As taxas de mortalidade por homicídio, segundo estados, foram padronizadas pelo método direto, tendo, como população padrão, a mundial, proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde. A Região Nordeste apresentou 317.711 óbitos por homicídios, e o Sudeste, 544.640 óbitos, correspondendo, respectivamente, a uma taxa média padronizada por 100.000 homens de 58,68 óbitos e 64,68 óbitos. As maiores taxas de mortalidade médias padronizadas foram observadas nos estados de Alagoas (157,74 óbitos) e Pernambuco (109,58 óbitos). Em todos os estados, observou-se aumento da mortalidade até a terceira década de vida, com redução progressiva para as demais faixas etárias. Verificou-se tendência ascendente para todos os estados da Região Nordeste, Minas Gerais e Espírito Santo; nos demais estados, houve descendência das taxas. Em todos os estados, observou-se aumento do risco de óbito nas gerações mais jovens, com exceção do Estado de São Paulo que mostrou perfil inverso. Os achados do presente estudo podem correlacionar-se com o processo de descontinuidade de coorte, no qual integrantes de coortes largas encontram menor oportunidade de acesso a emprego, renda e educação, aumentando o risco de envolvimento com a criminalidade e morte por homicídios.

The objective was to assess the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on the time trend in mortality from homicides in men in the states of the Northeast and Southeast regions of Brazil from 1980 to 2014. This was an ecological time trend study. PCA models were estimated using estimable functions in inference of the parameters. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Informatics Department. State-by-state mortality rates from homicide were standardized by the direct method, with the world population as the standard, as proposed by the World Health Organization. The Northeast region recorded 317,711 deaths from homicides and the Southeast 544,640 deaths, corresponding, respectively, corresponding to mean standardized rates of 58.68 and 64.68 deaths per 100,000 men. The highest mean standardized mortality rates were observed in the states of Alagoas (157.74 deaths) and Pernambuco (109.58 deaths). All the states showed an increase in mortality up to the third decade of life, with a progressive reduction in the other age brackets. There was an upward trend in all the states of the Northeast and in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo in the Southeast, while in the other states there was a downward trend. All the states showed an increase in the risk of death in the younger age brackets, except for the state of São Paulo, which showed the inverse profile. The current study's findings may correlate with the process of discontinuity in the cohort, in which members of wide cohorts found less opportunity for access to employment, income, and education, thus increasing the risk of involvement in crime and death from homicide.

El objetivo fue evaluar el efecto de la edad, período y cohorte de nacimiento, en la evolución temporal de la mortalidad por homicidios en hombres, en los estados de las regiones Nordeste y Sudeste, Brasil, entre el período de 1980 a 2014. Se realizó un estudio ecológico de tendencia temporal. Los modelos APC se estimaron usando funciones estimables en la inferencia de los parámetros. Los datos de mortalidad y los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron mediante el Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud. Las tasas de mortalidad por homicidio, según los diferentes estados, se estandarizaron mediante método directo, considerando como población patrón la mundial, propuesta por la Organización Mundial de la Salud. La Región Nordeste presentó 317.711 óbitos por homicidios y el Sudeste 544.640 óbitos, correspondiendo a una tasa media estandarizada por 100.000 hombres de 58,68 óbitos y 64,68 óbitos, respectivamente. Las mayores tasas de mortalidad medias estandarizadas se observaron en los estados de Alagoas (157,74 óbitos) y Pernambuco (109,58 óbitos). En todos los estados se observó un aumento de la mortalidad hasta la tercera década de vida, con una reducción progresiva para las demás franjas etarias. Se verificó una tendencia ascendente para todos los estados de la Región Nordeste, Minas Gerais y Espírito Santo, en los demás estados hubo un descenso de las tasas. En todos los estados, se observó un aumento del riesgo de óbito en las generaciones más jóvenes, con excepción del Estado de São Paulo, que mostró un perfil inverso. Los hallazgos del presente estudio pueden correlacionarse con el proceso de discontinuidad de cohorte, en donde integrantes de cohortes más grandes encuentran una menor oportunidad de acceso al empleo, renta y educación, así como un aumento el riesgo de implicación en la criminalidad y muerte por homicidios.

Bailão: Trajetórias, sociabilidades e geração entre homens com condutas homossexuais em São Paulo / Bailão: Trajectories, sociability and generation among men with homosexual conducts in São Paulo / Bailão: Trayectorias, sociabilidades y generación entre hombres con conductas homosexuales en São Paulo

Resumo: Este artigo tem como objetivo discutir homossexualidade masculina e geração a partir de uma análise crítica de Bailão, curta-metragem documental lançado em 2009. Com base nos discursos dos entrevistados, exploramos suas trajetórias e regimes de visibilidade, considerando-os como representativos de uma geração que atravessou mudanças profundas no que concerne à homossexualidade masculina no Brasil e, em especial, na cidade de São Paulo. Em seguida, debruçamo-nos sobre eventos que marcaram o início de uma visibilidade positiva para homens homossexuais a partir da década de 1970, bem como a epidemia de Aids na década seguinte. Concluímos com a percepção de que não se trata meramente de um filme sobre a danceteria que o intitula mas, acima de tudo, sobre uma miríade de subjetividades e acontecimentos cuja importância para o segmento populacional analisado não deve ser subestimada.

Abstract: This article discusses male homosexuality and generation based on a critical review of Bailão, a short documentary released in 2009, through an analysis of its interviews. The trajectories narrated by the interviewees and its visibility regimes are explored as representatives of a generation that underwent profound changes regarding male homosexuality in Brazil and, most especially, in the city of São Paulo. We take an in-depth look at events that marked the beginning of a positive visibility for homosexual men starting in the 1970s, as well as the AIDS epidemic in the following decade are. We conclude with the perception that Bailão is not merely a movie about the nightclub for which it is named but, above all, about a wide range of subjectivities and events not to be underestimated in its importance for the population analyzed.

Resumen: Este artículo tiene como objetivo discutir homosexualidad masculina y generación a partir de un análisis crítico de Bailão, cortometraje documental lanzado en 2009. A partir de los discursos de los entrevistados, exploramos sus trayectorias y regímenes de visibilidad, considerándolos como representativos de una generación que pasó por cambios profundos en lo concerniente a la homosexualidad masculina en Brasil y, en especial, en la ciudad de São Paulo. Posteriormente, nos ocupamos de los eventos que marcaron el inicio de una visibilidad positiva para hombres homosexuales a partir de la década de 1970, así como de la epidemia de HIV/Sida en la década siguiente. Concluimos apuntando que no se trata de una película solamente sobre la discoteca homónima, sino, antes que nada, sobre un amplio espectro de subjetividades y de acontecimientos cuya importancia para el segmento poblacional analizado no debe ser subestimada.

Análise do efeito idade-período-coorte na mortalidade por câncer colorretal no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, no período 1980 a 2014 / Analysis of the age-period-cohort effect on mortality from colorectal cancer in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2014 / Análisis del efecto edad-período-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer colorrectal en el Estado de Río de Janeiro, Brasil, durante el período 1980 a 2014

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a contribuição do efeito da idade, do período e da coorte de nascimento na mortalidade por câncer colorretal. Foram analisados dados de óbitos pela neoplasia entre indivíduos com mais de 35 anos de idade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, extraídos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) entre 1980 e 2014. As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas por gênero e faixa etária. O efeito da idade, período e coorte de nascimento foi estimado pelo método que utiliza funções estimáveis: desvios, curvaturas e drift, na biblioteca Epi do software R. As taxas de mortalidade por câncer colorretal padronizadas foram 27,37/100 mil homens e 21,83/100 mil mulheres em 2014. Verificou-se aumento da mortalidade pela neoplasia entre 1980 e 2014, sendo as taxas de mortalidade entre homens superiores às das mulheres após a década de 1990. O efeito idade foi observado com o aumento das taxas e o envelhecimento. A análise das gerações mostrou o menor risco de óbito nas coortes mais antigas comparadas às mais recentes coortes, o que pode estar ligado à adoção do estilo de vida ocidental. Tal cenário aponta a relevância da implantação de estratégias de rastreamento visando ao diagnóstico e ao tratamento precoce de lesões precursoras da doença.

The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality from colorectal cancer. The study analyzed data on deaths from this cancer in individuals over 35 years of age in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 1980 to 2014. Mortality rates were calculated by gender and age bracket. The effect of age, period, and birth cohort was estimated by the method that uses estimable functions: deviations, curves, and drift in the Epi library of the R software. Standardized mortality rates from colorectal cancer were 27.37/100,000 men and 21.83/100,000 women in 2014. The data showed an increase in mortality from this cancer from 1980 to 2014, and mortality rates were higher in men than in women after the 1990s. Age effect was observed with an increase in the rates and aging. Generational analysis showed lower risk of death in older versus younger cohorts, possibly related to the adoption of the Western lifestyle. This scenario underscores the need for screening strategies aimed at early diagnosis and treatment of precursor lesions.

El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar la contribución del efecto de la edad, del período y de la cohorte de nacimiento en la mortalidad por cáncer colorrectal. Se analizaron datos de óbitos por la neoplasia entre individuos con más de 35 años de edad del estado de Río de Janeiro, Brasil, extraídos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad (SIM) entre 1980 y 2014. Las tasas de mortalidad fueron calculadas por género y franja de edad. El efecto de la edad, período y cohorte de nacimiento fue estimada por el método que utiliza funciones estimables: desvíos, curvaturas y drift, en la biblioteca Epi del software R. Las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer colorrectal estandarizadas fueron 27,37/100 mil hombres y 21,83/100 mil mujeres en 2014. Se verificó un aumento de la mortalidad por la neoplasia entre 1980 y 2014, siendo las tasas de mortalidad entre hombres superiores a las de las mujeres tras la década de 1990. El efecto edad se observó con el aumento de las tasas y el envejecimiento. El análisis de las generaciones mostró un menor riesgo de óbito en las cohortes más antiguas, comparadas con las cohortes más recientes, lo que puede estar vinculado a la adopción del estilo de vida occidental. Tal escenario apunta la relevancia de la implantación de estrategias de monitoreo con el objetivo del diagnóstico y el tratamiento precoz de lesiones precursoras de la enfermedad.