Canadian cost-effectiveness model of BRCA-driven surgical prevention of breast/ovarian cancers compared to treatment if cancer develops.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost effectiveness from a Canadian perspective of index patient germline BRCA testing and then, if positive, family members with subsequent risk-reducing surgery (RRS) in as yet unaffected mutation carriers compared with no testing and treatment of cancer when it develops. METHODS: A patient level simulation was developed comparing outcomes between two groups using Canadian data. Group 1: no mutation testing with treatment if cancer developed. Group 2: cascade testing (index patient BRCA tested and first-/second-degree relatives tested if index patient/first-degree relative is positive) with RRS in carriers. End points were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and budget impact. RESULTS: There were 29,102 index patients: 2,786 ovarian cancer and 26,316 breast cancer (BC). Using the base-case assumption of 44 percent and 21 percent of women with a BRCA mutation receiving risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy and risk-reducing mastectomy, respectively, testing was cost effective versus no testing and treatment on cancer development, with an ICER of CAD 14,942 (USD 10,555) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), 127 and 104 fewer cases of ovarian and BC, respectively, and twenty-one fewer all-cause deaths. Testing remained cost effective versus no testing at the commonly accepted North American threshold of approximately CAD 100,000 (or USD 100,000) per QALY gained in all scenario analyses, and cost effectiveness improved as RRS uptake rates increased. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention via testing and RRS is cost effective at current RRS uptake rates; however, optimization of uptake rates and RRS will increase cost effectiveness and can provide cost savings.

Cost effectiveness of population based BRCA1 founder mutation testing in Sephardi Jewish women.

BACKGROUND: Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 founder-mutation testing has been demonstrated as cost effective compared with family history based testing in Ashkenazi Jewish women. However, only 1 of the 3 Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1/BRCA2 founder mutations (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), 5382insC[c.5266dupC]), and 6174delT[c.5946delT]) is found in the Sephardi Jewish population (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), and the overall prevalence of BRCA mutations in the Sephardi Jewish population is accordingly lower (0.7% compared with 2.5% in the Ashkenazi Jewish population). Cost-effectiveness analyses of BRCA testing have not previously been performed at these lower BRCA prevalence levels seen in the Sephardi Jewish population. Here we present a cost-effectiveness analysis for UK and US populations comparing population testing with clinical criteria/family history-based testing in Sephardi Jewish women. STUDY DESIGN: A Markov model was built comparing the lifetime costs and effects of population-based BRCA1 testing, with testing using family history-based clinical criteria in Sephardi Jewish women aged ≥30 years. BRCA1 carriers identified were offered magnetic resonance imaging/mammograms and risk-reducing surgery. Costs are reported at 2015 prices. Outcomes include breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and excess deaths from heart disease. All costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon is lifetime, and perspective is payer. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Population testing resulted in gain in life expectancy of 12 months (quality-adjusted life-year = 1.00). The baseline discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for UK population-based testing was £67.04/quality-adjusted life-year and for US population was $308.42/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were robust in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 100% of simulations were cost effective at £20,000/quality-adjusted life-year UK and the $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year US willingness-to-pay thresholds. Scenario analysis showed that population testing remains cost effective in UK and US populations, even if premenopausal oophorectomy does not reduce breast cancer risk or if hormone replacement therapy compliance is nil. CONCLUSION: Population-based BRCA1 testing is highly cost effective compared with clinical criteria-driven approach in Sephardi Jewish women. This supports changing the paradigm to population-based BRCA testing in the Jewish population, regardless of Ashkenazi/Sephardi ancestry.

Evaluation of pet owner preferences for operative sterilization techniques in female dogs within the veterinary community.

OBJECTIVE: To describe pet owner preferences within the veterinary community when choosing operative techniques for canine spay. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective survey. SAMPLE POPULATION: 1234 respondents from 5 veterinary university teaching hospitals in North America. METHODS: An electronic survey was distributed to faculty, students, and staff that currently are or previously were dog owners. Responses were analyzed to determine what spay technique respondents would choose for their own dogs. Surgical options offered included open celiotomy, 2-port (TP) laparoscopy, single-port (SP) laparoscopy, and natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery (NOTES). RESULTS: TP laparoscopic ovariectomy (OVE) was the most popular choice, followed by SP laparoscopic OVE; NOTES was the least popular technique when all surgical options were available. If only minimally invasive surgeries were offered, 0.3% of respondents would refuse surgery. Nearly half (48%) of respondents were willing to spend between $100 and $200 more for a minimally invasive OVE than for an open celiotomy. CONCLUSION: Minimally invasive OVE is an acceptable operative approach to those in the veterinary community. Additional study is required to correlate these findings with the general veterinary client population.

Mortality reduction and cost-effectiveness of performing hysterectomy at the time of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for prophylaxis against serous/serous-like uterine cancers in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the survival benefit and cost-effectiveness of performing hysterectomy during risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. METHODS: Based on a recent prospective cohort study indicating an elevated incidence of serous/serous-like uterine cancers among BRCA1 mutation carriers, we constructed a modified Markov decision model from a payer perspective to inform decisions about performance of hysterectomy during RRSO at age 40. We assumed patients had previously undergone a risk-reducing mastectomy and had a residual risk of death from breast or ovarian cancer. Disease-specific survival, age-adjusted competing hysterectomy rates, and deaths from other causes were incorporated. Costs of risk-reducing surgery, competing hysterectomy, and care for serous/serous-like uterine cancer were included. RESULTS: A 40year old woman who undergoes RRSO+Hysterectomy gains 4.9 additional months of overall survival (40.38 versus 39.97 undiscounted years) compared to RRSO alone. The lifetime probabilities of developing or dying from serous/serous-like uterine cancer in the RRSO group are 3.5% and 2%, respectively. The RRSO alone strategy has an average cost of $9013 compared to $8803 for RRSO+Hysterectomy, and is dominated (less effective and more costly) when compared to RRSO+Hysterectomy. In an alternative analysis, delayed hysterectomy remains a cost-effective prevention strategy with an ICER of less than $100,000/year for up to 25years following RRSO at age 40. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of hysterectomy to RRSO in a 40year old BRCA1 mutation carrier results in a mean gain of 4.9 additional months of life and is cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. STUDY DESIGN: Decision analysis model. METHODS: Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. RESULTS: Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality-adjusted life-years and $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-years willingness-to-pay thresholds for all 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios, with ≥95% simulations found to be cost-effective on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population-testing remains cost-effective in the absence of reduction in breast cancer risk from oophorectomy and at lower risk-reducing mastectomy (13%) or risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (20%) rates. CONCLUSION: Population testing for BRCA mutations with varying levels of Ashkenazi-Jewish ancestry is cost-effective in the United Kingdom and the United States. These results support population testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 1-4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent ancestry.

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. METHODS: The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). DATA SOURCES: Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. RESULTS: Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost-effective for RRSO at the 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% levels of OC risk, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Premenopausal RRSO appears to be extremely cost-effective at ≥4% lifetime OC risk, with ≥42.7 days gain in life expectancy if compliance with hormone replacement therapy is high. Current guidelines should be re-evaluated to reduce the RRSO OC risk threshold to benefit a number of at-risk women who presently cannot access risk-reducing surgery.

Peri-operative biology in primary breast cancer: a credible therapeutic target.

Over the last 25 years, there has been a growing body of basic science, modeling, and clinical data suggesting that the peri-operative period in the treatment of primary breast cancer is dynamic and can be manipulated to improve long-term outcomes. Clinical data have demonstrated early peaks of hazards for recurrence and emphasized the relationship of these to peri-operative events. More recently, clinical trial data with surgical oophorectomy at different times in the menstrual cycle, peri-operative progesterone, and anti-inflammatory drugs suggest that interventional studies are particularly well justified, given the increasing recognition of the costs both financially and clinically of current systemic regimens.

Long-term consequences of ovarian ablation for premenopausal breast cancer.

The TEXT and SOFT trials concluded that an aromatase inhibitor (AI) with ovarian ablation (OA) yields a higher 5-year disease-free survival than tamoxifen alone in premenopausal ER+ high-risk early breast cancer. However, the long-term health consequences and costs of OA, either by GnRH agonist or oophorectomy, have not been evaluated. The objective was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing tamoxifen to OA with AI. Markov Monte Carlo simulation model estimated the costs and benefits of 3 endocrine strategies: (1) tamoxifen; (2) GnRH agonist with AI (GnRHa-AI); (3) bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy with AI (BSO-AI). Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy gain (years), and costs were averaged over a lifetime (USD 2015). Adverse events and deaths from each strategy were modeled in the United States population over a time horizon of 40 years. For women without prior chemotherapy (low-risk), tamoxifen alone was more effective (18.03 years) and less costly ($1566) than GnRHa-AI (17.66 years, $93,692) or BSO-AI (17.63 years, $25,892). For those with prior chemotherapy (high-risk), BSO-AI was more costly but more effective (16.78 years, $25,368) than tamoxifen alone (16.55 years, $1523) with an ICER of $102,290, while GnRHa-AI yielded an ICER of $443,376. The simulation estimated 787 and 577 deaths attributable to OA among 9320 high-risk women after BSO-AI and GnRHa-AI, respectively. There may be a role for ovarian ablation in premenopausal women with ER+ high-risk early breast cancer; however, this analysis raises concerns about the long-term health consequences of ovarian ablation and the potential effects on overall survival.

Single-site Versus Multiport Robotic Hysterectomy in Benign Gynecologic Diseases: A Retrospective Evaluation of Surgical Outcomes and Cost Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the surgical outcomes and costs of robotic-assisted hysterectomy with the single-site (RSSH) or multiport approach (RH). DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database (Canadian Task Force classification II1). SETTING: A university hospital. PATIENTS: Consecutive women who underwent robotic-assisted total laparoscopic hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy for the treatment of benign gynecologic diseases. INTERVENTIONS: Data on surgical approach, surgical outcomes, and costs were collected in a prospective database and retrospectively analyzed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The total operative time, console time, docking time, estimated blood loss, conversion rate, and surgical complications rate were compared between the 2 study groups. Cost analysis was performed. One hundred four patients underwent total robotic-assisted hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (45 RSSH and 59 RH). There was no significant difference in the indications for surgery and in the characteristics of the patients between the 2 study groups. There was no significant difference between the single-site and multiport approach in console time, surgical complication rate, conversion rate, and postoperative pain. The docking time was lower in the RH group (p = .0001). The estimated blood loss and length of hospitalization were lower in the RSSH group (p = .0008 and p = .009, respectively). The cost analysis showed significant differences in favor of RSSH. CONCLUSION: RSSH should be preferred to RH when hysterectomy is performed for benign disease because it could be at least as equally effective and safe with a potential cost reduction. However, because of the high cost and absence of clear advantages, the robotic approach should be considered only for selected patients.

Early salpingectomy (TUbectomy) with delayed oophorectomy to improve quality of life as alternative for risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (TUBA study): a prospective non-randomised multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) around the age of 40 is currently recommended to BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. This procedure decreases the elevated ovarian cancer risk by 80-96% but it initiates premature menopause as well. The latter is associated with short-term and long-term morbidity, potentially affecting quality of life (QoL). Based on recent insights into the Fallopian tube as possible site of origin of serous ovarian carcinomas, an alternative preventive strategy has been put forward: early risk-reducing salpingectomy (RRS) and delayed oophorectomy (RRO). However, efficacy and safety of this alternative strategy have to be investigated. METHODS: A multicentre non-randomised trial in 11 Dutch centres for hereditary cancer will be conducted. Eligible patients are premenopausal BRCA1/2 mutation carriers after completing childbearing without (a history of) ovarian carcinoma. Participants choose between standard RRSO at age 35-40 (BRCA1) or 40-45 (BRCA2) and the alternative strategy (RRS upon completion of childbearing and RRO at age 40-45 (BRCA1) or 45-50 (BRCA2)). Women who opt for RRS but do not want to postpone RRO beyond the currently recommended age are included as well. Primary outcome measure is menopause-related QoL. Secondary outcome measures are ovarian/breast cancer incidence, surgery-related morbidity, histopathology, cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, and cost-effectiveness. Mixed model data analysis will be performed. DISCUSSION: The exact role of the Fallopian tube in ovarian carcinogenesis is still unclear. It is not expected that further fundamental research will elucidate this role in the near future. Therefore, this clinical trial is essential to investigate RRS with delayed RRO as alternative risk-reducing strategy in order to improve QoL. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT02321228 ).

Defining the risk threshold for risk reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for ovarian cancer prevention in low risk postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: To define risk thresholds for cost-effectiveness of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) for ovarian cancer (OC) prevention in low/intermediate risk postmenopausal women. METHODS: A decision-analytic model compares lifetime costs-&-effects of offering 'RRSO' with 'no RRSO' to postmenopausal women ≥50years for different lifetime OC-risk thresholds: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Well established data from the literature are used to estimate total costs, effects in terms of Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years(QALYs), cancer incidence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER) and impact. Costs are reported at 2012 prices; costs/outcomes discounted at 3.5%. Deterministic/probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) evaluate model uncertainty. RESULTS: RRSO does not save QALYs and is not cost-effective at the 2% general population lifetime OC-risk. At 4% OC-risk RRSO saves QALYs but is not cost-effective. At risk thresholds ≥5%, RRSO saves more life-years and QALYs and is highly cost-effective. The ICERs for OC-risk levels 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% are £15,247, £9958, £4584, and £1864 respectively. The gain in life-years from RRSO equates to 29.2, 40.1, 62.1 and 80.3days at risk thresholds of 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% respectively. The results are not sensitive to treatment costs of RRSO/OC/cardiovascular events but are sensitive to utility-scores for RRSO. On PSA, 67%, 80%, 84%, 91% and 94% of simulations at risk thresholds of 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% respectively are cost-effective for RRSO. CONCLUSION: RRSO is highly cost-effective in postmenopausal women aged >50 with ≥5% lifetime OC-risk and increases life-expectancy by ≥29.2days. The results could have significant clinical implications given the improvements in risk prediction and falling costs of genotyping.

Changes in specialists' perspectives on cancer genetic testing, prophylactic surgery and insurance discrimination: then and now.

We surveyed cancer genetics specialists in 1998 to learn what they would do if at 50% risk to carry a BRCA or Lynch syndrome mutation. We chose to repeat our study 14 years later, to examine how perspectives have changed with the extensive data now available. In July 2012 we surveyed the National Society of Genetic Counselors (NSGC) Cancer Special Interest Group via an internet based survey. We found statistically significant increases in the percentage of specialists who: would undergo BRCA testing (p = 0.0006), opt for prophylactic bilateral mastectomy (p =0.0001), opt for prophylactic removal of their uterus and ovaries for Lynch syndrome (p =0.0057 and P = 0.0090, respectively), and bill testing to insurance (p >0.0001). There were also statistically significant decreases in the percentage of participants who would have their colon removed for Lynch syndrome (p = 0.0002) and use an alias when pursuing testing (p > 0.0001). Over the past 14 years there has been a major change in perspective amongst cancer genetic specialists regarding genetic testing, prophylactic surgery and insurance discrimination.

Experience of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for a BRCA1 mutation carrier and establishment of a system performing a preventive surgery for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome in Japan: our challenges for the future.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy is currently regarded as the most certain primary method for preventing ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome. However, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy has rarely been performed in Japan. METHODS: We developed the first system in Japan for performing risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers at our university hospital in 2008. RESULTS: The indication for risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for patients with hereditary breast/ovarian cancer syndrome is currently limited in Japan. This situation may be because of the limited number of genetic counseling units, the limited number of facilities that can perform BRCA1/2 genetic testing and the fact that prophylactic surgery is not covered by health insurance in Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Recent treatment guidelines for breast cancer in Japan recommended risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy should be performed in the framework of the standard therapeutic modality for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers in the near future.

The impact of recent power morcellator risk information on inpatient surgery and patient outcomes.

Aim: We examine the impact of the new risk information about a surgical device on surgery and patient outcomes for hysterectomy in the inpatient setting. Methods: We utilize a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impact of new risk information on patient outcomes in the inpatient setting between 2009 and 2014. The inpatient data come from a nationally representative sample of hospitalizations in the USA. We use the likelihood of laparoscopic surgery, measures of resource use and surgical complications as outcome variables. Results: We estimate a three-percentage point decrease in the likelihood of receiving laparoscopic hysterectomy, a one-percentage point increase in the likelihood of experiencing a surgical complication and no impact on resource use, relative to pre-existing means. Conclusion: Our findings show that there was movement away from laparoscopic surgery in the months following the dissemination of new risk information. These changes had limited effect on patient outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of testing for breast cancer susceptibility genes.

OBJECTIVES: Genetic mutations in breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1/2 are associated with an increased risk of breast/ovarian cancers. Cost-effective preventive measures are available for women who test positive. The objective of this study was to determine at what risk of mutation it is cost-effective to test women for BRCA1/2 mutations. METHODS: A semi-Markov model accrued costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually from the societal perspective. The estimates of health-care costs, life expectancy, likelihood of obtaining a mastectomy or oophorectomy, and patient preferences for treatment and certainty about their BRCA1/2 status were based on the literature. RESULTS: At a 10% probability of mutation (the current guideline), the test strategy generated 22.9 QALYs over the lifetime and cost $118k, while the no-test strategy generated 22.7 QALYs and cost $117k. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the test strategy was $9k and the differences between costs and effects were not substantial. The test strategy remained cost-effective to a probability of mutation of 0%, as long as utility gained from a negative test result was 0.006 or greater. These results were sensitive to the frequency of inconclusive test results and utility gain from a negative test result. CONCLUSIONS: The costs and effectiveness of both the test and no-test strategies are very similar even when there is a small probability of mutation. Current guidelines, which can be used by insurance companies to refuse coverage, could deny some women a cost-effective approach. Further research to decrease the frequency of inconclusive results could improve the cost-effectiveness of this test.

The budgetary impact of genetic testing for hereditary breast cancer for the statutory health insurance.

Objectives: Potential opportunities and challenges of predictive genetic risk classification of healthy persons are currently discussed. However, the budgetary impact of rising demand is uncertain. This project aims to evaluate budgetary consequences of predictive genetic risk classification for statutory health insurance in Germany.Methods: A Markov model was developed in the form of a cohort simulation. It analyzes a population of female relatives of hereditary breast cancer patients. Mutation carriers are offered intensified screening, women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation can decide on prophylactic mastectomy and/or ovarectomy. The model considers the following scenarios: (a) steady demand for predictive genetic testing, and (b) rising demand. Most input parameters are based on data of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. The model contains 49 health states, starts in 2015, and runs for 10 years. Prices were evaluated from the perspective of statutory health insurance.Results: Steady demand leads to an expenditure of €49.8 million during the 10-year period. Rising demands lead to additional expenses of €125.5 million. The model reveals the genetic analysis to be the main cost driver while cost savings in treatment costs of breast and ovarian cancer are indicated.Conclusions: The results contribute to close the knowledge gap concerning the budgetary consequences due to genetic risk classification. A rising demand leads to additional costs especially due to costs for genetic analysis. The model indicates budget shifts with cost savings due to breast and ovarian cancer treatment in the scenario of rising demands.

Uterus at a price: Disability insurance and hysterectomy.

Taiwanese Labor, Government Employee, and Farmer Insurance programs provide 5 to 6 months of salary to enrollees who undergo hysterectomies or oophorectomies before their 45th birthday. These programs create incentives for more and earlier treatments, referred to as inducement and timing effects. Using National Health Insurance data between 1997 and 2011, we estimate these effects on surgery hazards by difference-in-difference and bunching-smoothing polynomial methods. For Government Employee and Labor Insurance, inducement is 11-12% of all hysterectomies, and timing 20% of inducement. For oophorectomies, both effects are insignificant. Enrollees' behaviors are consistent with rational choices. Each surgery qualifies an enrollee for the same benefit, but oophorectomy has more adverse health consequences than hysterectomy. Induced hysterectomies increase benefit payments and surgical costs, at about the cost of a mammogram and 5 pap smears per enrollee.

Prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (PBSO) with or without prophylactic bilateral mastectomy (PBM) or no intervention in BRCA1 mutation carriers: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Women with germline BRCA1 mutation have a significant risk of breast and/or ovarian cancer. Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy (PBM) and prophylactic bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (PBSO) prevent cancer in mutation carriers. The cost-effectiveness of PBSO (age of 35 years) with or without PBM five years earlier was compared to a no intervention setting employing a marginal cost analysis. National data on cancer incidence, mortality rates and costs were implemented together with observed Norwegian BRCA1 data in a Markov model and PBSO was assumed to reduce the risk of ovarian cancer by 90%. A 3% discount rate was used. The additional health care cost per mutation carrier undergoing PBSO and PBM was euro 15,784, and 6.4 discounted life years gained (LYG) was indicated (PBSO alone with 100% acceptance 3.1 LYG). The additional cost per LYG was euro 1973 (PBSO alone euro 1749/LYG). Including all resource use, the figure was a cost of euro 496 and euro 1284 per LYG, respectively. PBSO with or without PBM in BRCA1 mutation carriers is cost-effective. A testing of all incident breast cancers to identify mutation carrying families should be explored.

Modelled female sale options demonstrate improved profitability in northern beef herds.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of improving the average value of cows sold, the risk of decreasing the number weaned, and total sales on the profitability of northern Australian cattle breeding properties. DESIGN: Gather, model and interpret breeder herd performances and production parameters on properties from six beef-producing regions in northern Australia. PROCEDURE: Production parameters, prices, costs and herd structure were entered into a herd simulation model for six northern Australian breeding properties that spay females to enhance their marketing options. After the data were validated by management, alternative management strategies were modelled using current market prices and most likely herd outcomes. RESULTS: The model predicted a close relationship between the average sale value of cows, the total herd sales and the gross margin/adult equivalent. Keeping breeders out of the herd to fatten generally improves their sale value, and this can be cost-effective, despite the lower number of progeny produced and the subsequent reduction in total herd sales. Furthermore, if the price of culled cows exceeds the price of culled heifers, provided there are sufficient replacement pregnant heifers available to maintain the breeder herd nucleus, substantial gains in profitability can be obtained by decreasing the age at which cows are culled from the herd. CONCLUSION: Generalised recommendations on improving reproductive performance are not necessarily the most cost-effective strategy to improve breeder herd profitability. Judicious use of simulation models is essential to help develop the best turnoff strategies for females and to improve station profitability.

Cost-effectiveness of surveillance and prevention strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis is an important aspect of healthcare, including in Japan, where preventive measures for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers are not covered by health insurance. METHODS: We developed Markov models in a simulated cohort of women aged 35-70 years, and compared outcomes of surveillance with risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) at age 35, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) at age 45, and both (RRM&RRSO). We used breast and ovarian cancer incidences and adverse event rates from the previous studies, adjuvant chemotherapy, and hormonal therapy rates from the Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Registration 2015 in Japan, mortality rates from the National Cancer Center Hospital, Japan Society of Clinical Oncology, and Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and direct costs from St. Luke's International Hospital and Keio University Hospital. We used previously published preference ratings of women without known high risk to adjust survival for quality of life. The discount rate was 2%. RESULTS: Compared with surveillance, RRSO and RRM&RRSO were dominant (both cost-saving and more effective), and RRM was cost-effective in BRCA1 mutation carriers, while RRM and RRM&RRSO were dominant and RRSO was cost-effective in BRCA2. Among the four strategies including surveillance, RRM&RRSO and RRM were the most cost-effective in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With quality adjustment, RRM, RRSO, and RRM&RRSO were all cost-effective preventive strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, with RRM&RRSO being the most cost-effective in BRCA1 and RRM in BRCA2. This result supports the inclusion of insurance coverage for BRCA mutation carriers in Japan.