The values of quantitative serum HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4 cell counts for predicting survival time among HIV-positive individuals with CD4 counts of < or = 50 x 10(6) cells/l.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the HIV-1 RNA level as a predictor of survival time among individuals with advanced AIDS. METHODS: The serum HIV-1 RNA level, the CD4 cell count, and other clinical variables were evaluated at baseline, as predictors of survival time, among 56 retrospectively identified HIV-1 positive individuals with < or = 50 x 10(6) CD4 cells/l who attended the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Division of Infectious Diseases, between 1 July 1989 and 30 September 1993. RESULTS: During follow-up, 55 of these 56 patients died. The median survival time was 20.5 months. In univariate Cox proportional hazard modeling neither the baseline HIV-1 RNA level nor the CD4 cell count were predictive of survival time. However, in multivariate models longer survival time was associated with the use of trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole at entry [hazard ratio (HR), 0.42; P = 0.007], whereas shorter survival time was associated with a history of an AIDS-defining illness other than Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (HR, 2.87; P = 0.007). Correlative analysis revealed a modest correlation of the baseline CD4 cell count with survival time (Spearman p = 0.41; P = 0.002). However, no correlation was found between HIV RNA levels and survival time (P = 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: In this population with very advanced disease, the HIV-1 RNA level was a poor discriminator of survival time, being inferior to the CD4 cell count and to specific clinical variables such as the nature of the prior AIDS-defining illness and the type of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis employed. Among individuals with advanced AIDS, these data emphasize the relative importance of the CD4 cell count and of specific clinical factors, over the HIV-1 RNA level in predicting survival time.