Branching process models for surveillance of infectious diseases controlled by mass vaccination.
Biostatistics
; 4(2): 279-95, 2003 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-12925522
ABSTRACT
Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection below unity. We describe methods for monitoring the value of R using surveillance data. The models are based on branching processes in which R is identified with the offspring mean. We derive unconditional likelihoods for the offspring mean using data on outbreak size and outbreak duration. We also discuss Bayesian methods, implemented by Metropolis-Hastings sampling. We investigate by simulation the validity of the models with respect to depletion of susceptibles and under-ascertainment of cases. The methods are illustrated using surveillance data on measles in the USA.
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vacinação em Massa
/
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Modelos Imunológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Biostatistics
Ano de publicação:
2003
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido