Squamous cell carcinoma-antigen messenger RNA level in peripheral blood predicts recurrence after resection in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to clarify whether preoperative squamous cell carcinoma-antigen messenger RNA (SCC-Ag mRNA) level in peripheral blood can be used to predict tumor recurrence after curative resection for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: A prospective analysis was conducted for 46 consecutive patients who underwent curative esophagectomy and who had no residual tumor. The SCC-Ag mRNA level in the peripheral blood of each patient was measured preoperatively by using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Median follow-up period was 34 months. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that the optimal cutoff level of SCC-Ag mRNA was 40. Patients were divided into the high SCC-Ag mRNA level group (n = 14) and the low SCC-Ag mRNA level group (n = 32). The cumulative probabilities of tumor recurrence were higher in the high SCC-Ag mRNA level group (probability of recurrence was 71% at 2 years) than in the low group (22% at 2 years; P = .0005). SCC-Ag mRNA level (relative risk, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-8.54; P = .040) was the strongest independent predictor of recurrence by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative SCC-Ag mRNA levels in the peripheral blood are the best predictive factor for recurrence in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who undergo curative resection (R0).