Increasing genetic distance to HIV-1 subtype B and F1 consensus sequences in the Brazilian epidemic: a challenge for vaccine strategies based on central immunogens?

It has been postulated that the non-synonymous divergence (distance to the subtype consensus sequence) observed in several HIV-1 subtype populations during 1990s attained the maximum limit that is compatible with viral fitness or survival, at least in the V3 env gene domain. To test this hypothesis, 145 subtype B and 64 subtype F env V3 sequences isolated from Brazilian HIV-1 positive patients between 1989 and 2004 were analyzed. HIV-1 env V3 sequences were grouped by year of collection and the mean intra-subtype diversity and divergence were examined at synonymous, non-synonymous, and amino acid level. The analyses clearly show that the mean intra-subtype divergence constantly increases in both subtype populations in the last 15 years, and more importantly, this trend was not only driven by a significant increase of the synonymous distance but also by a significant increase of the non-synonymous and amino acid distances between Brazilian circulating viruses and subtype consensus sequences. These results clearly disagree with the notion that the non-synonymous distance to the HIV-1 subtype consensus observed at population level had already attained the maximum limit, and suggest that the likelihood for success of vaccines based on "central" immunogens, as those based on any other empirically selected viral sequence, could be continuously diminishing over time.