Widespread reproductive variation in North American turtles: temperature, egg size and optimality.

Theory predicts the existence of an optimal offspring size that balances the trade-off between offspring fitness and offspring number. However, in wild populations of many species, egg size can still vary from year to year for unknown reasons. Here, we hypothesize that among-year variation in population mean egg size of freshwater turtles is partly a consequence of their gonadal sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, a physiological mechanism which principally functions to synchronize reproduction with a favorable time of year. As part of this process, among-year variation in seasonal temperatures modifies the extent of egg follicle development, and this may translate into variation in mean egg size among years (both at the individual and population level). To test this hypothesis, we applied an information-theoretic approach to model relationships between mean egg mass and the temperatures experienced during discrete periods of follicular development in wild populations of three turtle species (Chrysemys picta, Chelydra serpentina, Glyptemys insculpta) over 12 consecutive years. Because follicular development occurs in the fall for C. serpentina and G. insculpta, whereas it occurs both in the fall and spring for C. picta, we expected only fall temperatures would explain egg size variation in C. serpentina and G. insculpta, whereas both fall and spring temperatures would correlate with egg size variation in C. picta. These predictions were upheld. We then compared among-year variation in within-female egg and clutch sizes of each species in order to evaluate whether such variation might still be consistent with some tenets of optimal egg size theory. In all three species, we found that clutch sizes vary more than egg sizes in spite of temperature-induced egg size variation, and this pattern of relatively high clutch-size variation matches theoretical predictions. Future work should explore the roles of direct and indirect (i.e., nutritional) influences of temperature on egg size in natural settings.