Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 110(23): 9374-9, 2013 Jun 04.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23690569
ABSTRACT
"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were â¼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Plantas
/
Mudança Climática
/
Biodiversidade
/
Fósseis
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Ano de publicação:
2013
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos