Predictive validity of the structured assessment of violence risk in youth: A 4-year follow-up.
Crim Behav Ment Health
; 25(3): 192-206, 2015 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-25042997
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Structured violence risk assessment is an essential part of treatment planning for violent young people. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) has been shown to have good reliability and validity in a range of settings but has hardly been studied in adolescent mental health services.AIMS:
This study aimed to evaluate the long-term predictive validity of the SAVRY in adolescent psychiatry settings.METHODS:
In a prospective study, 200 SAVRY assessments of adolescents were acquired from psychiatric, forensic and correctional settings. Re-offending records from the Finnish National Crime Register were collected. Receiver operating curve statistics were applied.RESULTS:
High SAVRY total and individual subscale scores and low values on the protective factor subscale were significantly associated with subsequent adverse outcomes, but the predictive value of the total score was weak. At the risk item level, those indicating antisocial lifestyle, absence of social support and pro-social involvement were strong indicators of subsequent criminal convictions, with or without violence. The SAVRY summary risk rating was the best indicator of likelihood of being convicted of a violent crime. After allowing for sex, age, psychiatric diagnosis and treatment setting, for example, conviction for a violent crime was over nine times more likely among those young people given high SAVRY summary risk ratings.CONCLUSIONS:
The SAVRY is a valid and useful method for assessing both short-term and long-term risks of violent and non-violent crime by young people in psychiatric as well as criminal justice settings, adding to a traditional risk-centred assessment approach by also indicating where future preventive treatment efforts should be targeted. The next steps should be to evaluate its role in everyday clinical practice when using the knowledge generated to inform and monitor management and treatment strategies.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Determinação da Personalidade
/
Escalas de Graduação Psiquiátrica
/
Violência
/
Criminosos
/
Delinquência Juvenil
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Crim Behav Ment Health
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIAS DO COMPORTAMENTO
/
PSICOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Finlândia