[Prediction of epidemic tendency of schistosomiasis with time-series model in Hubei Province].
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi
; 26(6): 613-7, 2014 Dec.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-25856884
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province, so as to provide the theoretical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis.METHODS:
The time-series auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013, and to predict the short-term trend of infection rate.RESULTS:
The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95% confidence internals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly.CONCLUSION:
The time-series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy, and could be used for the short-term forecasting of schistosomiasis.
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Esquistossomose Japônica
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi
Ano de publicação:
2014
Tipo de documento:
Article