Dynamical Analysis of an SEIT Epidemic Model with Application to Ebola Virus Transmission in Guinea.

ABSTRACT

In order to investigate the transmission mechanism of the infectious individual with Ebola virus, we establish an SEIT (susceptible, exposed in the latent period, infectious, and treated/recovery) epidemic model. The basic reproduction number is defined. The mathematical analysis on the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is given. As the applications of the model, we use the recognized infectious and death cases in Guinea to estimate parameters of the model by the least square method. With suitable parameter values, we obtain the estimated value of the basic reproduction number and analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty property by partial rank correlation coefficients.