Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.
Parasitology
; 144(13): 1677-1685, 2017 Nov.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28805164
ABSTRACT
Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças dos Bovinos
/
Fasciola hepatica
/
Fasciolíase
/
Distribuição Animal
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Health_economic_evaluation
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Prevalence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Parasitology
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil