Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020.

ABSTRACT

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD) 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD 81) and 1,081 (SD 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.