Dynamic Modeling of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) Spread to Test Control Strategies.

ABSTRACT

Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever is a zoonotic disease which has emerged or re-emerged recently in Eastern Europe and Turkey. The causative agent is a virus, mainly transmitted by ticks of the species Hyalomma marginatum (Koch, 1844, Ixodida, Amblyommidae). To test potential scenarios for the control of pathogen spread, a dynamic mechanistic model has been developed that takes into account the major processes involved in tick population dynamics and pathogen spread. The tick population dynamics model represents both abiotic (meteorological variables) and biotic (hare and cattle densities) factors in the determination of processes (development, host finding, and mortality). The infection model consists of an SIRS model for the host part whereas a lifelong infectiousness was considered for ticks. The model was first applied to a zone in Central Anatolia (Turkey). Simulated dynamics represent the average reported level of infection in vectors and hosts. A sensitivity analysis to parameter value has been carried out and highlighted the role of transstadial transmission as well as acquisition of the pathogen by immature stages. Applying the model to different sites of Turkey shows different patterns in the dynamics of acarological risk (number of infectious questing adults). This model was thereafter used to test control strategies. Simulation results indicate that acaricide treatments and decrease in hare density could have valuable effects when combined, either on the acarological risk or on the prevalence in cattle. The kind of model we have developed provides insight into the ability of different strategies to prevent and control disease spread.