Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models.
Proc Biol Sci
; 285(1884)2018 08 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30111605
ABSTRACT
Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures. We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence, extrinsic incubation period and mosquito survival. We used thermal responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission was optimized at 29°C, and had a thermal range of 22.7°C-34.7°C. Thus, as temperatures move towards the predicted thermal optimum (29°C) owing to climate change, urbanization or seasonality, Zika could expand north and into longer seasons. By contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for Zika transmission is 5°C warmer than that of dengue, and current global estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly over-predicting its possible range.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Temperatura
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Mudança Climática
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Aedes
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Zika virus
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Infecção por Zika virus
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Mosquitos Vetores
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Biol Sci
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos