Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.
BMJ Open
; 9(1): e026966, 2019 01 28.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30692079
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.DESIGN:
Economic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.SETTING:
The model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021-2030.PARTICIPANTS:
English adults aged 25 years and older.INTERVENTIONS:
We modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs. OUTCOMEMEASURES:
Cumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.RESULTS:
Under all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.CONCLUSIONS:
Trade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to food systems.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Verduras
/
Doenças Cardiovasculares
/
Dieta
/
Frutas
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMJ Open
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido