Can Australia Reach the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Goal by 2025 Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Gay and Bisexual Men?
Clin Infect Dis
; 70(1): 106-113, 2020 01 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30816916
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) in Australia are well engaged in care. The World Health Organization's (WHO) hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030 may be reachable ahead of time in this population.METHODS:
We predicted the effect of treatment and behavioral changes on HCV incidence among HIV-positive GBM up to 2025 using a HCV transmission model parameterized with Australian data. We assessed the impact of changes in behavior that facilitate HCV transmission in the context of different rates of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) use.RESULTS:
HCV incidence in our model increased from 0.7 per 100 person-years in 2000 to 2.5 per 100 person-years in 2016 and had the same trajectory as previously reported clinical data. If the proportion of eligible (HCV RNA positive) patients using DAAs stays at 65% per year between 2016 and 2025, with high-risk sexual behavior and injecting drug use remaining at current levels, HCV incidence would drop to 0.4 per 100 person-years (85% decline from 2016). In the same treatment scenario but with substantial increases in risk behavior, HCV incidence would drop to 0.6 per 100 person-years (76% decline). If the proportion of eligible patients using DAAs dropped from 65% per year in 2016 to 20% per year in 2025 and risk behavior did not change, HCV incidence would drop to 0.7 per 100 person-years (70% reduction).CONCLUSIONS:
Reaching the WHO HCV elimination target by 2025 among HIV-positive GBM in Australia is achievable.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Antivirais
/
Infecções por HIV
/
Hepatite C
/
Hepatite C Crônica
/
Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Oceania
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clin Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália