Utility of Prognostic Prediction Models in the Terminal Stage of Gastrointestinal Cancer.
J Gastrointest Cancer
; 51(2): 515-519, 2020 Jun.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31256333
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
For patients receiving palliative care, information about prognosis is important to help them set priorities and expectations for care and to assist clinicians in decision-making. The purpose of this study was to investigate prognostic models applicable to the terminal stage of gastrointestinal cancer, especially in terms of accuracy of prediction regarding 3-week survival.METHODS:
We validated retrospectively the accuracy of a prognosis prediction model for 354 end-stage gastrointestinal cancer patients who underwent palliative care at our hospital. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis and the area under the curve (AUC), we selected the cut-off value for 3-week survival and evaluated the predictive ability using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accurate diagnosis rate.RESULTS:
In our analysis of various models, Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and Biological Prognostic Score (BPS) version 3 showed excellent predictive performance with AUCs of 0.85 and 0.83, respectively, and accurate diagnosis rates of 80.0 and 79.0, respectively. BPS version 2 showed fair predictive performance with an AUC of 0.76 and an accurate diagnosis rate of 72.0. Using these models, stratification of prognostic prediction was possible.CONCLUSIONS:
PPI and BPS were found to be accurate prediction models for short-term survival of terminal gastrointestinal cancer patients.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Gastrointestinais
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Gastrointest Cancer
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Japão