Nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with stages I-III colon cancer.
Scand J Gastroenterol
; 55(2): 202-208, 2020 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32008420
ABSTRACT
Aim:
This study aims to establish and validate an effective nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with stages I-III colon cancer.Methods:
The data of elderly colon cancer patients with stages I-III were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) between 2010 and 2015. The eligible patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort (ratio 11). All predictors of cancer-specific survival were determined by Cox regression. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used for validation of nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical net benefit of the nomogram.Results:
Cox hazard analysis in the training cohort indicated that grade, tumor stage, node stage, colectomy, and CEA were independent predictors of CSS. Nomogram was constructed based on these predictors. The C-index of nomograms for CSS was 0.728 (95%CI 0.7133-0.7427), and were superior to that of AJCC TNM Stage (C-index 0.625, 95%CI 0.6093-0.6406). The calibration curves showed satisfactory consistency between actual observation and nomogram-predicted CSS probabilities. The validation cohort demonstrated similar results. The DCA showed high net benefit of nomogram in a clinical context. The population was divided into three groups based on the scores of the nomogram, and the survival analysis showed that this prognostic stratification was statistically significant (p < 0.01).Conclusion:
The nomograms showed significant accuracy in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in elderly patients with stages I-III colon cancer and may be helpful inpatient counseling clinical decision guidance.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias do Colo
/
Nomogramas
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Guideline
/
Incidence_studies
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Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Scand J Gastroenterol
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China