One-year mortality of colorectal cancer patients: development and validation of a prediction model using linked national electronic data.
Br J Cancer
; 123(10): 1474-1480, 2020 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32830202
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The existing literature does not provide a prediction model for mortality of all colorectal cancer patients using contemporary national hospital data. We developed and validated such a model to predict colorectal cancer death within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis.METHODS:
Cohort study using linked national cancer and death records. The development population included 27,480 patients diagnosed in England in 2015. The test populations were diagnosed in England in 2016 (n = 26,411) and Wales in 2015-2016 (n = 3814). Predictors were age, gender, socioeconomic status, referral source, performance status, tumour site, TNM stage and treatment intent. Cox regression models were assessed using Brier scores, c-indices and calibration plots.RESULTS:
In the development population, 7.4, 11.7 and 17.9% of patients died from colorectal cancer within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. T4 versus T1 tumour stage had the largest adjusted association with the outcome (HR 4.67; 95% CI 3.59-6.09). C-indices were 0.873-0.890 (England) and 0.856-0.873 (Wales) in the test populations, indicating excellent separation of predicted risks by outcome status. Models were generally well calibrated.CONCLUSIONS:
The model was valid for predicting short-term colorectal cancer mortality. It can provide personalised information to support clinical practice and research.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Colorretais
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Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Br J Cancer
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido