A simulation study of the economic and health impact of a diabetes prevention programme in Ireland.
Diabet Med
; 38(6): e14540, 2021 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33576077
ABSTRACT
AIMS:
Type 2 diabetes is a major public health issue that has a large effect on society including its health and social services. The aims of this paper are to generate a projection of the number of cases and explore the potential impact of a preventive intervention targeted at people with pre-diabetes on disease prevalence, complications, mortality and cost.METHODS:
A Markov simulation model of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Ireland, for the period 1991 to 2036, was generated based on international epidemiological data. The simulation was calibrated with the available Irish data on the prevalence of pre-diabetes, diabetes and diabetic complications. The economic and health impact of a hypothetical nationwide preventive intervention programme, which reduces the incidence by a factor consistent with the international literature, was estimated under three scenarios of alternative effectiveness and uptake.RESULTS:
The estimated number of people over 40 years of age with type 2 diabetes in Ireland is projected to increase from 216,000 in 2020 to 414,000 in 2036. A prevention programme, based on the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme, is estimated to result in a reduction of between 2000 (0.5%) and 19,000 (4.6%) in the number of prevalent cases of diabetes in 2036 resulting in substantial health and quality of life benefits.CONCLUSIONS:
A wide range of initiatives with uncertain outcomes will be required to reduce the impact of obesity and type 2 diabetes. A diabetes prevention programme seems likely to be worth pursuing as one element of this set of initiatives.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Estado Pré-Diabético
/
Qualidade de Vida
/
Simulação por Computador
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Custos de Cuidados de Saúde
/
Complicações do Diabetes
/
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Aged
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Aged80
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Female
/
Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Diabet Med
Assunto da revista:
ENDOCRINOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Irlanda