A retrospective study on the usefulness of the JJ risk engine for predicting the incidence rate of coronary heart disease in type 2 diabetes patients.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: In 2018, we conducted a retrospective survey using the medical records of 484 patients with type 2 diabetes. The observed value of coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence after 5 years and the predicted value by the JJ risk engine as of 2013 were compared and verified using the discrimination and calibration values. RESULTS: Among the total cases analyzed, the C-statistic was 0.588, and the calibration was p < 0.05; thus, the JJ risk engine could not correctly predict the risk of CHD. However, in the group expected to have a low frequency of hypoglycemia, the C-statistic was 0.646; the predictability of the JJ risk engine was relatively accurate. Therefore, it is difficult to accurately predict the complication rate of patients using the JJ risk engine based on the diabetes treatment policy after the Kumamoto Declaration 2013. The JJ risk engine has several input items (variables), and it is difficult to satisfy them all unless the environment is well-equipped with testing facilities, such as a university hospital. Therefore, it is necessary to create a new risk engine that requires fewer input items than the JJ risk engine and is applicable to several patients.