Improving 1-year mortality prediction in ACS patients using machine learning.
Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care
; 10(8): 855-865, 2021 Oct 27.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34015112
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is an established clinical risk stratification tool for patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We developed and internally validated a model for 1-year all-cause mortality prediction in ACS patients.METHODS:
Between 2009 and 2012, 2'168 ACS patients were enrolled into the Swiss SPUM-ACS Cohort. Biomarkers were determined in 1'892 patients and follow-up was achieved in 95.8% of patients. 1-year all-cause mortality was 4.3% (n = 80). In our analysis we consider all linear models using combinations of 8 out of 56 variables to predict 1-year all-cause mortality and to derive a variable ranking.RESULTS:
1.3% of 1'420'494'075 models outperformed the GRACE 2.0 Score. The SPUM-ACS Score includes age, plasma glucose, NT-proBNP, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), Killip class, history of peripheral artery disease (PAD), malignancy, and cardio-pulmonary resuscitation. For predicting 1-year mortality after ACS, the SPUM-ACS Score outperformed the GRACE 2.0 Score which achieves a 5-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84). Ranking individual features according to their importance across all multivariate models revealed age, trimethylamine N-oxide, creatinine, history of PAD or malignancy, LVEF, and haemoglobin as the most relevant variables for predicting 1-year mortality.CONCLUSIONS:
The variable ranking and the selection for the SPUM-ACS Score highlight the relevance of age, markers of heart failure, and comorbidities for prediction of all-cause death. Before application, this score needs to be externally validated and refined in larger cohorts. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT01000701.Palavras-chave
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
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