COVID-19 control strategies and intervention effects in resource limited settings: A modeling study.
PLoS One
; 16(6): e0252570, 2021.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34077483
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Many countries with weaker health systems are struggling to put together a coherent strategy against the COVID-19 epidemic. We explored COVID-19 control strategies that could offer the greatest benefit in resource limited settings.METHODS:
Using an age-structured SEIR model, we explored the effects of COVID-19 control interventions-a lockdown, physical distancing measures, and active case finding (testing and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine)-implemented individually and in combination to control a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic in Kathmandu (population 2.6 million), Nepal.RESULTS:
A month-long lockdown will delay peak demand for hospital beds by 36 days, as compared to a base scenario of no intervention (peak demand at 108 days (IQR 97-119); a 2 month long lockdown will delay it by 74 days, without any difference in annual mortality, or healthcare demand volume. Year-long physical distancing measures will reduce peak demand to 36% (IQR 23%-46%) and annual morality to 67% (IQR 48%-77%) of base scenario. Following a month long lockdown with ongoing physical distancing measures and an active case finding intervention that detects 5% of the daily infection burden could reduce projected morality and peak demand by more than 99%.CONCLUSION:
Limited resource settings are best served by a combination of early and aggressive case finding with ongoing physical distancing measures to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A lockdown may be helpful until combination interventions can be put in place but is unlikely to reduce annual mortality or healthcare demand.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Epidemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Nepal