Improving target price calculations in Medicare bundled payment programs.
Health Serv Res
; 56(4): 635-642, 2021 08.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34080188
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the predictive accuracy of two approaches to target price calculations under Bundled Payments for Care Improvement-Advanced (BPCI-A) the traditional Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology and an empirical Bayes approach designed to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean. DATA SOURCES Medicare fee-for-service claims for beneficiaries discharged from acute care hospitals between 2010 and 2016. STUDYDESIGN:
We used data from a baseline period (discharges between January 1, 2010 and September 30, 2013) to predict spending in a performance period (discharges between October 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016). For 23 clinical episode types in BPCI-A, we compared the average prediction error across hospitals associated with each statistical approach. We also calculated an average across all clinical episode types and explored differences by hospital size. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTIONMETHODS:
We used a 20% sample of Medicare claims, excluding hospitals and episode types with small numbers of observations. PRINCIPALFINDINGS:
The empirical Bayes approach resulted in significantly more accurate episode spending predictions for 19 of 23 clinical episode types. Across all episode types, prediction error averaged $8456 for the CMS approach versus $7521 for the empirical Bayes approach. Greater improvements in accuracy were observed with increasing hospital size.CONCLUSIONS:
CMS should consider using empirical Bayes methods to calculate target prices for BPCI-A.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mecanismo de Reembolso
/
Medicare
/
Custos e Análise de Custo
/
Pacotes de Assistência ao Paciente
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Health Serv Res
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos