Discriminating Between Premigration and Postmigration HIV Acquisition Using Surveillance Data.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr
; 88(2): 117-124, 2021 10 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34138772
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Migrant populations are overrepresented among persons diagnosed with HIV in the European Union and the European Economic Area. Understanding the timing of HIV acquisition (premigration or postmigration) is crucial for developing public health interventions and for producing reliable estimates of HIV incidence and the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV infection. We summarize a recently proposed method for determining the timing of HIV acquisition and apply it to both real and simulated data.METHODS:
The considered method combines estimates from a mixed model, applied to data from a large seroconverters' cohort, with biomarker measurements and individual characteristics to derive probabilities of premigration HIV acquisition within a Bayesian framework. The method is applied to a subset of data from the European Surveillance System (TESSy) and simulated data.FINDINGS:
Simulation study results showed good performance with the probabilities of correctly classifying a premigration case or a postmigration case being 87.4% and 80.4%, respectively. Applying the method to TESSy data, we estimated the proportions of migrants who acquired HIV in the destination country were 31.9%, 37.1%, 45.3%, and 45.2% for those originating from Africa, Europe, Asia, and other regions, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Although the considered method was initially developed for cases with multiple biomarkers' measurements, its performance, when applied to data where only one CD4 count per individual is available, remains satisfactory. Application of the method to TESSy data, estimated that a substantial proportion of HIV acquisition among migrants occurs in destination countries, having important implications for public health policy and programs.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Migrantes
/
Infecções por HIV
/
Vigilância da População
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr
Assunto da revista:
SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS)
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Grécia