Early warning of the Indian Ocean Dipole using climate network analysis.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 119(11): e2109089119, 2022 03 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35254900
ABSTRACT
SignificanceThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an air-sea coupled phenomenon over the tropical Indian Ocean, has substantial impacts on the climate, ecosystems, and society. Due to the winter predictability barrier, however, a reliable prediction of the IOD has been limited to 3 or 4 mo in advance. Our work approaches this problem from a new data-driven perspective the climate network analysis. Using this network-based method, an efficient early warning signal for the IOD event was revealed in boreal winter. Our approach can correctly predict the IOD events one calendar year in advance (from December of the previous year) with a hit rate of higher than 70%, which strongly outperforms current dynamic models.
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Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Clima
/
Natureza
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China