Early detection of local SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks by wastewater surveillance: a feasibility study.
Epidemiol Infect
; 151: e28, 2023 02 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36722251
ABSTRACT
Wastewater surveillance and quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA are increasingly used to monitor the spread of COVID-19 in the community. We studied the feasibility of applying the surveillance data for early detection of local outbreaks. A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed, applying data on reported variation in RNA gene copy concentration in faeces and faecal masses shed. It showed that, even with a constant number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedders, the variation in concentrations found in wastewater samples will be large, and that it will be challenging to translate viral concentrations into incidence estimates, especially when the number of shedders is low. Potential signals for early detection of hypothetical outbreaks were analysed for their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity of the signals. The results suggest that a sudden increase in incidence is not easily identified on the basis of wastewater surveillance data, especially in small sampling areas and in low-incidence situations. However, with a high number of shedders and when combining data from multiple consecutive tests, the performance of wastewater sampling is expected to improve considerably. The developed modelling approach can increase our understanding of the results from wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Dinamarca