Localisation of atmospheric release of radioisotopes using inverse methods and footprints of receptors as sources.

ABSTRACT

Releases of radionuclides to the atmosphere occasionally occur with no warning and with first observation at radioactivity monitoring stations. The Chernobyl accident of 1986 was first detected at Forsmark, Sweden, long before the official announcement by the Soviet Union, and the release of Ruthenium 106 detected across Europe in 2017 still has no official release location. The current study details a method based on footprint analysis of an atmospheric dispersion model to locate the source of an atmospheric release. The method was applied to the European Tracer EXperiment of 1994 to validate the method and to the Ruthenium observations of autumn 2017 to determine likely release locations and time characteristics of this release. The method can readily utilise an ensemble of numerical weather prediction data which improves the localisation results by taking into account meteorological uncertainties compared to only using deterministic weather data. In applying the method to the ETEX scenario, the most likely release location improved from a distance of 113 km from the true release location when using deterministic meteorology, to a distance of 63 km when using ensemble meteorology data, although such improvements may be scenario dependent. The method was constructed to be robust with respect to the choices of model parameters and measurement uncertainties. The localisation method can be useful for decision makers to enact countermeasures to protect the environment against the effects of radioactivity when observations are available from environmental radioactivity monitoring networks.