Assessing the Burden of Suicide Death Associated With Nonoptimum Temperature in a Changing Climate.
JAMA Psychiatry
; 80(5): 488-497, 2023 05 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36988931
ABSTRACT
Importance Few studies have projected future suicide burden associated with daily temperatures in a warming climate. Objectives:
To assess the burden of suicide death associated with daily nonoptimal temperature and to project the change of suicide burden associated with nonoptimal temperature in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios. Design, Setting, andParticipants:
Between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, we conducted a time-stratified, case-control study among more than 430â¯000 individual suicide decedents from all counties in mainland China. Exposures Daily meteorological data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Fifth Generation (ERA5) reanalysis product. Historical and future temperature series were projected under 3 scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980 to 2099, with 10 general circulation models. Main Outcomes andMeasures:
The relative risk (RR) and burden of suicide death associated with nonoptimal temperature (ie, temperatures greater than or less than minimum-mortality temperature); the change of suicide burden associated with future climate warming in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios.Results:
Of 432â¯008 individuals (mean [SD] age; 57.6 [19.0] years; 253â¯093 male [58.6%]) who died by suicide, 85.8% (370â¯577) had a middle school education or less. The temperature-suicide associations were approximately linear, with increasing death risks at higher temperatures. The excess risk was more prominent among older adults (ie, ≥75 years; RR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.46-1.99) and those with low education level (ie, middle school education or less; RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57). There were 15.2% suicide deaths (95% estimated CI [eCI], 14.6%-15.6%) associated with nonoptimal temperature nationally. Consistent and drastic increases in excess suicide deaths over this century were predicted under the high-emission scenario, whereas a leveling-off trend after the mid-21st century was predicted under the medium- and low-emission scenarios. Nationally, compared with the historical period (1980-2009), excess suicide deaths were predicted to increase by 8.3% to 11.4% in the 2050s and 8.5% to 21.7% in the 2090s under the 3 scenarios. The projected percentage increments of excess suicide deaths were predicted to be greater in the South (55.0%; 95% eCI, 30.5%-85.6%) and in winter (54.5%; 95% eCI, 30.4%-77.0%) in the 2090s under the high-emission scenario. Conclusions and Relevance Findings of this nationwide case-control study suggest that higher temperature may be associated with the risk and burden of suicide death in China. These findings highlight the importance of implementing effective climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tailoring public health policies to adapt to global warming.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mudança Climática
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Temperatura Alta
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Humans
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Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
JAMA Psychiatry
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China