Estimating future PM2.5-attributed acute myocardial infarction incident cases under climate mitigation and population change scenarios in Shandong Province, China.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf
; 256: 114893, 2023 May.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37059016
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China.METHODS:
Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 - 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method.RESULTS:
Each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 - 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9-125.9 % and 6.4-244.6 % under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9-5.2 % and 33.0-46.2 % under Scenarios 5 - 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030 -0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060 -33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030 15.2-171.8 %; 2060 -21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030 -1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060 -41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030 -41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060 -89.5 % to -17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets.CONCLUSION:
The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Poluentes Atmosféricos
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Poluição do Ar
/
Material Particulado
/
Infarto do Miocárdio
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Female
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Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China