Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.
BMC Infect Dis
; 23(1): 254, 2023 Apr 20.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37081456
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed.METHODS:
We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels.RESULTS:
We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection.CONCLUSIONS:
These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções por Rotavirus
/
Vírus
/
Rotavirus
/
Infecções por Caliciviridae
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Norovirus
/
Infecções por Enterovirus
/
Gastroenterite
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos