Ophthalmologist Turnover in the United States: Analysis of Workforce Changes from 2014 through 2021.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Physician turnover is costly to health care systems and affects patient experience due to discontinuity of care. This study aimed to assess the frequency of turnover by ophthalmologists and identify physician and practice characteristics associated with turnover. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Actively practicing United States ophthalmologists included in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Physician Compare and Physician and Other Supplier Public Use File between 2014 and 2021. METHODS: We collected data for each ophthalmologist that was associated with practice/institution and then calculated the rate of turnover both annually in each year window and cumulatively as the total proportion from 2014 to 2021. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify physician and practice characteristics associated with turnover. We also evaluated turnover characteristics surrounding the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ophthalmologist turnover, defined as a change of an ophthalmologist's National Provider Identifier practice affiliation from one year to the next. RESULTS: Of 13 264 ophthalmologists affiliated with 3306 unique practices, 34.1% separated from at least 1 practice between 2014 and 2021. Annual turnover ranged from 3.7% (2017) to 19.4% (2018), with an average rate of 9.4%. Factors associated with increased turnover included solo practice (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 9.59), university affiliation (aOR, 1.55), practice location in the Northeast (aOR, 1.39), and practice size of 2 to 4 members (aOR, 1.21; P < 0.05 for all). Factors associated with decreased turnover included male gender (aOR, 0.87) and more than 5 years of practice 6 to 10 years (aOR, 0.63), 11 to 19 years (aOR, 0.54), 20 to 29 years (aOR, 0.36), and ≥ 30 years (aOR, 0.18; P < 0.05 for all). In the initial year (2020) of the COVID-19 pandemic, annual turnover increased from 7.8% to 11.0%, then decreased to 8.7% in the postvaccine period (2021). CONCLUSIONS: One-third of United States ophthalmologists separated from at least 1 practice from 2014 through 2021. Turnover patterns differed by various physician and practice characteristics, which may be used to develop future strategies for workforce stability. Because administrative data cannot solely determine reasons for turnover, further investigation is warranted given the potential clinical and financial implications. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S) Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.