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Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022.
Gass, Jonathon D; Hill, Nichola J; Damodaran, Lambodhar; Naumova, Elena N; Nutter, Felicia B; Runstadler, Jonathan A.
Afiliação
  • Gass JD; Department of Infectious Disease and Global Health, Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, Tufts University, North Grafton, MA 01536, USA.
  • Hill NJ; Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111, USA.
  • Damodaran L; Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, Boston, MA 02125, USA.
  • Naumova EN; Institute of Bioinformatics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
  • Nutter FB; Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA 02155, USA.
  • Runstadler JA; Department of Infectious Disease and Global Health, Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, Tufts University, North Grafton, MA 01536, USA.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37297634
ABSTRACT
H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Vírus da Influenza A / Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 / Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N2 / Influenza Aviária Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do norte / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Int J Environ Res Public Health Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Vírus da Influenza A / Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 / Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N2 / Influenza Aviária Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do norte / Europa Idioma: En Revista: Int J Environ Res Public Health Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos