Risk Factors and Nomogram Model of Postoperative Delirium in Children with Congenital Heart Disease: A Single-Center Prospective Study.

ABSTRACT

Delirium is a common postoperative complication in children with congenital heart disease, which affects their postoperative recovery. The purpose of this study is to explore the risk factors of delirium and construct a nomogram model to provide novel references for the prevention and management of postoperative delirium in children with congenital heart disease. 470 children after congenital heart surgery treated in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) of Shanghai Children's Medical Center were divided into a model and a validation cohort according to the principle of 73 distribution temporally. Then, the delirium-related influencing factors of 330 children in the training cohort were analyzed, and the nomogram model was established by a combination of Lasso regression and logistic regression. The data of 140 children in the validation cohort were used to verify the effectiveness of the model. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age, disease severity, non-invasive ventilation after extubation, delayed chest closure, phenobarbital dosage, promethazine dosage, mannitol usage, and elevated temperature were independent risk factors for postoperative delirium. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram model was 0.864 and the Brier value was 0.121. Regarding the validation of the model's effect, our results showed that 51 cases were predicted by the model and 34 cases actually occurred, including 4 cases of false negative and 21 cases of false positive. The positive predictive value of the model was 58.8%, and its negative predictive value was 95.5%. The nomogram model established in this study showed acceptable performance in predicting postoperative delirium in children with congenital heart disease.